The Mike Hosking Breakfast

More details are emerging around the background of the Afghan national who allegedly shot two National Guard soldiers in Washington DC.  Both soldiers remain critically injured after yesterday's shooting, while the suspect's in custody.  The FBI says the shooter had worked with the CIA in Afghanistan and had immigrated to the US in 2021.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking the suspect was reportedly troubled by his work with a CIA paramilitary force in Afghanistan.  Arnold says the group was also accused of civilian killings.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I tell you what I like about all the educators whinging away over the curriculum redo and the Treaty treatment: they are at least standing their ground. They are having their say and that is no bad thing.  It struck me yesterday when I read Roger Gray's speech, Roger Gray of Auckland Port. When he talked of “No Zealand”, of the naysayers, of the cruise people in Miami and their view of NZ not wanting a cruise industry. Of Jacinda Ardern calling them Petrie dishes.   Where were the Roger Grays when she was actually in charge and wrecking the place?  The educators are bold enough to tell the current government they don’t like what's going on, but where was the business community when their companies were being shafted?  In the prizes for gonads and backbone, the educators win hands down.  Not that they are right of course, and in that is the gargantuan irony. The educators complain about rules and change and yet are irrefutably on the wrong side of history, given the education outcomes produced in this country.  And yet business was nowhere to be seen or heard, despite the fact we all knew the country was being strangled by power freaks, and they would eventually be proved right.  But as much as I defend an educator's right to speak up, there is something deeply insidious about the way educators, particularly unions, operate.  The list, the signatories of principals who have signed this protest to the Education Minister over the curriculum change is driven by, the Education Minister told us, unions.  And it’s a standover tactic. It’s an intimidatory play. You are bullied and harried and cajoled into signing, hence she claims, you then ring her up and tell her you signed reluctantly.  That sadly, says something about a principal that acts out of fear – sort of like businesses hating the decisions but saying nothing.  Fear is no way to live, but for some I get it: life is short, who needs the grief?  But if that is the mentality in education, if that is the modus operandi of unions, what sort of world are our kids entering into? What sort of brain washing, whether overt or subliminal, do our kids get subjected to?   The Minster, in telling us all this on Tuesday, said it is disgusting – anyone want to disagree? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the country’s most famous singer-songwriters is back with an entirely new album.  It’s a new chapter for Bic Runga, who’s sixth studio album, ‘Red Sunset’, is releasing in February next year, with a tour following in March.  It’s her first album in 15 years to feature all-original material.  “It’s a bit of a reinvention,” Runga told Mike Hosking.  “That’s never easy to do, but it’s either reinvent or just repeat yourself, so, y’know, I really kind of wanted to try something else.”  The album was recorded in an Airbnb in Paris earlier this year, where Runga and her family were holidaying.   “We rented a house with a piano, and really knocked the record out.”  “I wanted it to have some of that vibe and just remembering my life before, y’know, the kids and stuff,” she told Hosking.  “It was just sort of a nostalgic trip, I suppose.”   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 27th of November, Kiwibank’s CEO and the Reserve Bank Governor unpack the Official Cash Rate cut to 2.25%.  A class action lawsuit is being filed against Transpower and Omexom over the massive power failure following the pylon disaster – are Northland businesses interested?   Kiwi singer Bic Runga is releasing her first fully original album since 2011, so she joined for a chat about ‘Red Sunset’ and her new tour.   Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The intentional killing of women and girls is now its own crime in Italy.   Lawmakers unanimously backed a bill making femicide a specific crime punishable by life imprisonment.   Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called the measure a tool to "defend the freedom and dignity of every woman".  Italy Correspondent Jo McKenna told Mike Hosking it looks very much like a symbolic gesture.  She says she’s not sure how you would prove the murder of someone is related to their gender, as opposed to some other factor.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor is leaving the job tomorrow with no major regrets about the pace of OCR cuts.  The cash rate's dropped 25 basis points to 2.25%.  Forward-projections suggest this will be the end of the current cycle of OCR cuts, with inflation expected to ease and the economy expected to recover in the new year.  Governor Christian Hawkesby told Mike Hosking they've been responding to circumstances.  He says they've been dealing with a stall in economic recovery while focusing on their mandate of controlling inflation.  Hawkesby says it's hard to say exactly why New Zealand's recovery has stalled more than other countries, telling Hosking there isn't one clear reason for the downturn this year.  He says it's a bit of a puzzle, with tariffs and cautiousness both playing a role, and that's why last month's cut was needed to kickstart the economy.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A public policy think tank is pushing the Government to take advantage of social impact bonds. The model means the Government only pays providers when they achieve results for a particular problem.   It had previously been used for the Genesis Youth Trust, which reduced youth reoffending by 30%.   Maxim Institute Researcher Thomas Scrimgeour told Mike Hosking the beauty of social impact bonds is that it allows highly flexible and customisable interventions.  He says you can target the people who are most vulnerable, not just the easy options.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A suggestion most Northland businesses are ready to move on rather than seek compensation over widespread power outages.  In June last year, an inexperienced worker removed nuts from three of a pylon's legs causing it to fall over cutting power to almost the entire region.  The opt-out class action against Transpower and its lines maintenance contractor is being backed by Australian financing firm Omni Bridgeway.   North Chamber Chief Executive Leah McKerrow told Mike Hosking local businesses are ready to move on, if it's been learnt from.  She says businesses would rather see investment in energy resilience and roading rather than try to take on a government-owned entity.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Don't bank on any further cuts to the Official Cash Rate.  The Reserve Bank's dropped the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.25%.  It expects to see inflation ease and the economy recover.  Kiwibank Chief Executive Steve Jurkovich told Mike Hosking this could very well be the bottom of the current OCR cycle.  He says there's lots of talk about green shoots in the economy, although much of this has been in farming.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's the Reserve Bank outing this week.  One last hurrah for the year. It has a certain anticlimax about it, doesn't it?  It's probably going to be 25 basis points. 25 points is priced in by just about everyone.  There is a chance it's zero. Next to no one says 50 basis points.  Infometrics last week had the Q3 GDP number at 0.9% and I'm told the Q2 number is going to be revised up, which means if you add all that to the Q1 number then we've actually had a pretty decent year.  "What? Are you mad? How can you say that?", I hear you say. Well, don’t shoot the messenger.  These are either facts, or expert predictions. Either way they are to the right side of the equation. The point being is that's the sort of thing the Reserve Bank looks at.  Is inflation in its box? Well, it’s a smidge high, given it’s 3%, so right at the top end, but technically still within the 0-3% range.  If we cut further, they will ask, do we risk driving that number a bit higher through increased bullishness and spending? Quite possibly.  Now I'm not personally arguing for a hold. But if you want to toss a few ideas about the place, that isn't a bad one. A case can be made for holding, for saying inflation is there or thereabouts and that the economy has got no shortage of green shoots, and 2026 looks okay so our job is done.  The psychological advantage, no matter what they do, is not to be underestimated either. "If this is it, it's as good as it gets. It's as low as they go".  Then a lot of people will make decisions around money and mortgages, and a lot of people have been holding. They've been in the waiting place and, as Dr. Seuss said, "the waiting place is no place for you".  In a funny way it might also shake us out of our funk. We are disproportionately miserable, not because of reality, but because it's been so bad and we need a kick up the backside to get on with it.  Maybe Christian Hawkesby, in his farewell flourish, offers not just the 25 basis points but a bit of uplifting hyperbole as he steps out the door.  They have cut six times this year. We could end 2025 at 2.25%. It started at 4.25%. Shows you what a mess we have dealt with.  But I get the sense the page has turned. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.