The Mike Hosking Breakfast

A view the Government has to get a handle on debt, with forecasts showing the economy's now finally recovering.  BusinessNZ's Planning Forecast projects the GDP will grow at just under 3% per year to 2027.  But it warns that an ageing population's set to drive superannuation and healthcare costs to unsustainable levels, consuming all income tax revenue by the late 2040s.  Chief Economist John Pask told Mike Hosking we’re not getting back to surplus until 2028/29, and even that’s touch and go.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a view that Government funding for major events is a smart investment.  The first round of events in its $70 million package has been unveiled, including the first ever concert at Christchurch's One NZ Stadium at Te Kaha next May.  Other events include Linkin Park in Auckland and the Ultra Music Festival in Wellington.  Auckland Unlimited Chief Executive Nick Hill told Mike Hosking this funding is designed to make existing events bigger.  For example, he says, the Readers and Writers Festival in Auckland is a fantastic event, but could they use the funding to make it more international?  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Public Service Commissioner says he believes former Police Commissioner Andrew Coster is genuinely sorry, following his resignation as Social Investment Agency Head. Coster's accepted responsibility for shortcomings highlighted in an IPCA report on the handling of complaints against his then Deputy Jevon McSkimming. His final pay will be near $124 thousand. Sir Brian Roche told Mike Hosking Coster's always seemed genuine in all his experiences with him.  He says Coster's very sincere and has real courage, and is confident what he says he believes, is true.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The mail I'm getting got a bit more official yesterday with Fitch suggesting they think the Reserve Bank isn't done.  A lot of people thought the Reserve Bank was done cutting because fill-in Governor Christian Hawkesby basically said as much last week.  On the inference that it was over, swap rates on the wholesale market started going up.  Why should you care? Because if you owe money to a bank a lot of their income to lend comes from the wholesale markets.  If it goes up so does your interest rate, which is what has been happening since last Thursday.  Now this is where we get into subtlety and nuance.  Technically Hawkesby said the bank remains open to further action, so if you lined Hawkesby up in court he could defend himself.  But as always in these matters it is the between the lines stuff, the nod and the wink stuff, that markets read.  And they are reading an end and, as a result, the numbers are rising.  Tied in, if another cut is coming as Fitch suggests, things are further complicated with our dollar, given places like Australia are doing the opposite.  Their Reserve Bank is closer to hiking than cutting. That affects how the world sees our economy and our currency, at 87cents to the Australian dollar and at 43cents to the pound, looks anaemic.  For good measure, Fitch seems downbeat about our recovery. They are calling 2% next year by way of GDP. They were saying 2.7%.  This then brings in the Government. The Government, in election year, would like 2.7% over 2%.  2% they'd be able to milk but 2.7% is home court advantage.  If you want one more thing that kind of backs up the Fitch funk, Black Friday didn’t work.  Spending was down on last year. Personally, I think that’s about it being a crock of you-know-what and it's more clickbait than it is bargains and people are over being ripped off.  But that’s just me.  So anyway, Hawkesby leaves with a trail of questions left behind as he heads to the beach.  If you are one of the so-often quoted ones who are rolling out of one mortgage into another, these are still tricky times to try and get right and you want to hope Fitch has misread it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US Secretary of Defence is facing scrutiny for potentially having committed a war crime.  Pete Hegseth is facing scrutiny over a strike he ordered on a boat in the Caribbean Sea suspected of smuggling drugs.   The Washington Post reported last week that Hegseth authorised a highly unusual second strike to kill all survivors on the boat – reports Hegseth has denied.   US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that Hegseth has previously railed against the Geneva Convention and the legal rules of engagement.  In his book, Arnold says, Hegseth shares an anecdote in which he tells the soldiers in his platoon to ignore such legal advice.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the year nearing its end, Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen joined Mike Hosking for the final Politics Wednesday of 2025.   They discussed Scrutiny Week, Labour’s decision to chase the Māori seats and what’s ahead as we enter an election year.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 3rd of December, Police Commissioner Richard Chambers outlined the Police's new targets in the wake of the McSkimming debacle.  Liam Lawson has officially retained his seat for Racing Bulls next season! Former Ferrari and Williams manager Peter Windsor broke down the decision for us.  And Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell joined Mike for their last Politics Wednesday of the year.   Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand’s relationship with the "Land of Opportunity" is taking the spotlight in Auckland today.  Business, trade, and political leaders are attending the annual US Business Summit.  Christopher Luxon is set to open the summit, shedding light on the Government’s actions to strengthen bilateral ties.  NZUS Council Executive Director Fiona Cooper told Mike Hosking New Zealand is doing great business with the US and the summit is about sharing stories about how to navigate the tariff turbulence.   But at the same time, she says there are tonnes of opportunities in the US, in areas like technology, investment, education, agriculture, and aerospace, and this is about seizing them.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The success story keeps rolling for Kiwi company AF Drinks.  The alcohol-free brand has just secured nationwide distribution in the UK with supermarket giant Morrisons.  It follows on from their US expansion, with them now stocked in over 4000 stores including Target, Walmart, and Sprouts.  Founder Lisa King told Mike Hosking there’s been a huge trend towards alcohol moderation.  She says that a lot of people are still drinking alcohol, but they’re moderating it and choosing to drink less or drink non-alcoholic versions.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A mentoring role for Liam Lawson in the 2026 Formula 1 season.  The New Zealand driver has retained his spot in Racing Bulls alongside 18-year-old debutant Arvid Lindblad.  Lawson had been vying for the vacant seat with demoted Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda, following Isack Hadjar's promotion to the parent team.  Former Williams and Ferrari executive Peter Windsor told Mike Hosking Lawson's the best fit for the requirements.  He says Liam will flourish in a senior role and it’ll bring out the best in him.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.