The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Chris Luxon says the Government's proposed LNG important terminal in Taranaki will only proceed if it makes commercial sense. A procurement process was announced last month, with the Government due to make a decision on whether to proceed around the middle of the year. Newstalk ZB understands multiple ministers privately admit high gas prices might lead Cabinet to walk away from the project. The Prime Minister told Mike Hosking that the Government will seriously consider the options put on the table. He says he genuinely wants to make sure the business case is right - and if there's a good business case they'll do it, and if there isn't, they won't. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Education Review Office has said schools need to get tougher on enforcing phone bans.  Research found that only 50% of students are following the rules, a number it says is not good enough.  Mount Albert Grammar Headmaster Patrick Drumm told Mike Hosking that the study needs to be unpacked further, as it's likely that students are using their phones outside of lessons instead of in a learning environment.  He said that it's been a 'successful initiative' so far, but says it's an ongoing process to reduce numbers further.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The latest New Zealand First policy will see 50% of the royalties from mines returned to the region where the mine's located. Under the policy, the role of government agencies would also be limited.  Minerals Council Chief Executive Josie Vidal told Mike Hosking that it's great to be recognised as the industry that keeps New Zealand going.  She says the world is finding out you can't live on rainbows alone - and fossil fuels are needed. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The problem with people like Paul Conway, who is the Chief Economist at the Reserve Bank, is they “know” some stuff.  They sound good in a speech, but their record exposes them badly.  Paul gave a speech this week to the National Financial Advisers conference.  He talked about how expensive this country is, and he talked about our lack of productivity. If the speech had been a school project, he would probably have got a good mark.  You couldn’t argue with what he said.  We aren't very efficient. Things like construction cost more here than anywhere in the OECD. We were once okay at productivity, but we aren't anymore and our real ability to buy stuff is going backwards.  He noted before 2020 our purchasing power was growing faster than the OECD's. Now ask yourself a question – what happened in 2020 and post 2020? Covid of course.  Covid was no one's fault (well, possibly the Chinese). But the response was the key and, in that response, as is well documented, we blew it. We blew it sky high and ended up with inflation north of 7%, some of which was over seen by Mr Conway and his mate Adrian Orr at the Reserve Bank.  Paul argues inflation is critical given the cash rate helps anchor prices. Does it?  He cites the prices that make us the most expensive place in the world: rates, power, and insurance. Did the cash rate do anything for those? No.  Other prices he cited, like butter and lamb, are also expensive and expensive for obvious and well documented reasons. And, ironically, expensive for good reason for NZ Inc.  Part of the issue is market size. It's why Walmart is successful. It has a population base of over 300 million. We don’t.  Supply of goods is cheaper per unit when you buy millions of them. We don’t.  The productivity question has been bounced around for years and never really been solved. Many people don’t even agree what productivity is.  Is it a robot replacing a human? Is it building a road faster? Is it inventing a thing that changes the world?  Part of the reason the Reserve Bank blew Covid so badly is they write speeches like Conway's.  They live in Wellington in small rooms theorising. The moment you give them a bit of real world, look what they do with it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    Donald Trump: 3/10  Possibly a worse week than last week. His airports are jammed, he’s desperate for a war off-ramp, he lost another seat to the Democrats, mortgages are up, recession risk is up, and he can't jawbone oil anymore because no one believes him.    $50: 6/10  It gets a decent mark because of its restraint and fiscal realism and perhaps, at last, we finally have a government that realises spraying money we don’t have is a path to ruin.    EVs: 8/10  It's still way too early, but first data this week shows this could be a tipping point. The market has moved. Is it permanent?    Lotto: 5/10  I have no idea whether more balls are more fun, but I occasionally see a queue at the dairy on jackpot weekend, so a decent chunk of the country is still into it.    The Warriors: 9/10 The best start ever. Ever! Decades in the competition and we have never been better than this.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I think we have a couple of emerging themes as we come to the end of week four of Operation Epic Fury.  If you follow Australia as closely as I do, you will, like me, have been filled with a sense of pride or surprise that we are out doing them in adultness.  Yes, unions here and media have pedalled the usual BS on more money for every man and their dog, let's work from home, let's panic about days left of petrol etc. But believe me – in Australia it's been worse.  They have lost their you-know-what.  They are at each other. It's not helped by their state system and that tension between state and federal and the confusion over who is doing what, and when, and whether it's any good.  Stations have run dry, not because they don’t have fuel, but because they don’t know how to drive a truck up the road.  Rural has been going at city, punter has been going at petrol operator, the Coalition and One Nation have been going at Labour. It's been a free for all bitchathon, driven by an underlying panic.  Another realisation – despite the fact a few hundred people have bought a BYD, it has become stunningly clear just how far off a renewable future we are.  Buy all the EVs you want and cycle until you are blue in the face. The cold, hard truth is that solar and batteries do not, nor I suspect will they ever in our lifetime, run a country.  Diesel runs a country. You put oil in tractors and trucks and in factories. We can be grateful our power is mostly renewable and that means we are better off than most of the world, including Australia.  But the cold, hard truth is a small bit of water carrying only 20% of the overall supply can cripple a planet, or it will if this thing isn't over shortly.  We have of course been here before. Oil has been an issue in the 70's and early 2000's.  Did we change because of it? No.  Did we say we should, or would? Probably. But we didn’t.  And you know why? Because we can't. Until the combine harvester runs on wind and the plane takes off using batteries and every factory, farmer and person who produces anything we wear, or eat, or live with does it differently, oil is it.  The whole renewables argument has been blown sky high. The world has never used, nor needed, more fossil fuels.  Four weeks of a scrap in one country has laid theory vs reality bare. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US President says it’s up to Iranian leaders to convince him to halt the war, or they'll be Iran's "worst nightmare."  Attacks on Israel, Iran, and Lebanon continue, with the Israeli military stating it's killed an Iranian navy chief overseeing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.  The US claims it's presented a 15-point plan to Iran and negotiations are taking place –which Tehran has denied.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking Iran has publicly stated that there are no negotiations but say any ceasefire would require reparations.  He says the war and diplomacy are once again at an impasse.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s Friday, which means Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson are back to Wrap the Week that Was.  They discussed the rising fuel prices and which alternatives to driving are actually viable, flight delays, and the Cabinet paper revealing Chris Hipkins received advice about the potential risks of a second Covid vaccine for teenagers, despite him saying otherwise.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Whangamatā is the hot spot for car enthusiasts this weekend.   More than $4 million worth of classic and performance cars are going under the hammer, closing the main drag.  Around 120,000 people will be in town for Sunday Drive’s Beach Hop live car auction, and global bidders are watching on.   Sunday Drive Director Taylor Campbell told Mike Hosking the recent weather hasn’t dampened spirits too much – the streets are packed with cool cars.   He says that bidder registrations for this auction are higher than they’ve ever seen, and they have a pretty remarkable catalogue.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday the 27th of March, Health Minister Simeon Brown offers reassurances around possible shortages of key medical supplies as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.  A mega cruise terminal is set to open in Auckland next year – Port of Auckland CEO Roger Gray delves into the details.  And the Warriors are on a hot streak, unbeaten heading into tonight’s clash against the Tigers. Former captain Tohu Harris joined to discuss the team’s run.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.