The Mike Hosking Breakfast

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday the 2nd of March, we get the latest on the war in Iran plus what it could mean for petrol prices back here in NZ. The Prime Minister is in and gives his thoughts on the legalities of the strike, airport charges the highest in the world at Auckland and the Air NZ result. Andrew Saville and Jason Pine talk the NZ Open, the first race of the Indycar season and whether it's the Warriors year as they have their first game this weekend. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To the so-called poverty issue. The report actually uses the word "hardship". Kids in hardship, roughly, is flat. About 14% of kids allegedly live in some form of hardship. Hardship is often replaced with the word poverty. They are different things and, also, the measure of hardship is open to real inquiry. The stats department interviewed 18,000 families and "hardship" is a house that goes without 7 of 18 necessities e.g paying the power bill on time, feeling cold etc. Now, without getting too picky, a seven-year-old who lives in a house who's power bill is overdue has nothing to do with hardship, unless the power is cut off, which mainly it is not. i watched a press conference last week with the Prime Minister and police and justice ministers on crime and the poverty question came up. You note the word they used was "poverty", not hardship. The question, inferred as they so often do, was what the Government were going to do about it. The answer was one of only three; 1) Is a Labour view, which is hand out more money, 2) A current Government view, which is grow the economy, 3) The answer that is rarely used - get the parents to pull their finger out. My read of these stats is that given the number is steady at 14%, you are essentially dealing with the same people, many of whom are hopeless. Under Ardern her personal project was to reduce child poverty. It didn’t happen. Under this Government it hasn’t either. So approaches one and two haven't worked. There are rightly or wrongly (obviously wrongly) a group of people who struggle. Their circumstances will be little different to many who have it tough as well, but get by. They have kids that aren't in hardship but face the same fiscal issues. It will be benefit related. It will be about decisions, about priorities, what bill gets paid first, how far down the food chain, literally and figuratively, are the kids. Within the same fiscal envelope, some kids are fine and some will be a statistic. That, sadly, is not the Government's real problem. Government's can only do so much. Sometimes parents might have to do a bit more and be a bit better. The child, as always, is innocent. You don’t choose to be born to some of the parents who masquerade as parents. But these stats tell a sad truth. I don’t think there is an answer. Whether its 14% or 15% or 11%, there are no miracles.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government has been helping to fund events such as the NZ Open for a while, but should they be contributing to an already successful competition?  NZ Open Tournament Director Michael Glading says that the Government gets a return on it's investment, and that the NZ Golf Open is one of their top earners.  'Certainly right up there in terms of return for dollar spent, and the money that flows into this event is phenomenal.' LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Prime Minister says New Zealand has never supported the Iranian regime.  Christopher Luxon told Mike Hosking that it's a regime which has brutally repressed it's own people, killed tens of thousands, and sponsored terrorism around the world.  He also said that the missile strikes were 'independent attacks' from the US and Israel, and that New Zealand was not informed of the attacks before they happened.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US/Israeli missile strikes against Iran have caused uncertainty around oil prices.  20% of the world's crude oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to close and it has already heavily restricted access to the region.  AA Principal Policy Adviser Terry Collins told Mike Hosking that prices hinge on the ability to move oil through the Strait, but that won't be an easy task. "it's easy to target vessels within it, and it's what the response will be from the Americans around protecting those vehicles" LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Iran may be overstating its military capabilities in the wake of US and Israeli attacks.  Coordinated strikes have killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and multiple senior officials, resulting in Iran launching counter strikes across the Middle East.  Iran officials say almost 150 people have been killed from a strike on a girls school.  The Iranian President has appeared on state television claiming its armed forces are crushing enemy bases.  The Economist's Middle East Correspondent Gregg Carlstrom told Mike Hosking that this is not true.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Farmers say new KiwiSaver rules are a win for rural staff looking to buy property. Farm workers, rural teachers, police and defence personnel can now use KiwiSaver to buy their first home, or even a farm, due to the Government lifting a long-standing restriction. Previously, these workers were blocked because their jobs required living in employer-provided housing. Federated Farmers' Dairy Chair Karl Dean told Mike Hosking that there's about 50,000 farms nationwide, most with just one or two staff living onsite. He expects 10 to 20% to take this option. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    New Zealand: 8/10  It really has been quite the week. From the dairy to the spending, the turnaround, without question, is real. The confidence is up and the roll could be close to being on.    Kiwifruit: 9/10  The forecast and plan released this week is a good example of how you think big when you are bullish.     Mitch Barnett: 4/10  We wish him well, obviously, but the geography of the Warriors cannot be escaped. And we get a swap. And more importantly, this is our year.    Air New Zealand: 3/10  In an industry awash with profit, they still can't find one.    Cash: 7/10  The banks are, rightly or wrongly, out of step with this one. We like cash. We may not use it all that often, but enough do. Reserve bank - 1. Retail banks - 0.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There is no doubt that Air New Zealand has issues.  In a week of company reports, the vast majority contained good news. Air New Zealand was a glaring exception.  A national airline losing money in an industry that is booming doesn’t make sense.  They have engine issues – that is real and it's not over.  They have eight grounded planes and planes that don’t fly don’t make money.  They have issues getting planes, but that has been applicable to everyone.  So it's a perfect storm of sorts. But if you read the report the engine compensation was $55 million, but the bottom line would have been $90 million if the engines were on the plane.  But add $90 million to the loss and you still aren't making a lot of profit.  They blame domestic demand, or lack of it.  They blame increased charges and they are real. The cost-plus-accounting of landing charges and so on is not only material, but criminal, and the Government as a main shareholder needs to do more.  Then enter David Seymour in election year who says we should sell the thing. "Go woke, go broke" and "they are too politically motivated," says Seymour.  Seymour is wrong. We need a national airline. Just imagine the sale to a private operator and the thing tanks. A country needs an air network and Jetstar isn't it. The Government has saved Air New Zealand before, they could do it again as a country with no airline is not a country.  But that doesn’t mean Seymour is completely wrong; Air New Zealand is woke and it does have reputational issues.  It has focused on uniforms and departure videos to a degree that is laughable. The great airlines like Emirates, Singapore, and Qatar have ordinary uniforms and ordinary videos, but world class product and a shedload of profit. That is where Air New Zealand is badly missing.  Too often they charge first-world prices for budget services and domestically the services are not reliable enough.  There is a line between their genuine issues and their brand issues. They do have problems, but they also don’t look like all they could be and haven't for years.  Some of it is a small country with a small population. Some of it is too much purple and too much PR around Cassava crisps and $800 flights to small towns.  The CEO has a hell of a job. The turnaround, they say, is coming.  If you read this week's report, I don’t see it yet. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Progress towards a nuclear deal between the US and Iran remains murky with all-out war still a potential outcome.   A third round of indirect talks has just concluded in Geneva, with further discussions to take place in Vienna next week.   The pressure's on Iran, with the US deploying its biggest military build-up to the Middle East in decades.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking the debate about whether an attack is viable is spilling out into the public now.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.