The Mike Hosking Breakfast

It’s a bit early given it's a short week, but at four and a half-ish weeks into Operation Epic Fury, there's a reason to be depressed and a reason to be hopeful.  To the bad news first.  This hasn’t been a great week for the Americans. They have been left with talks that may or may not be happening and a lot of rhetoric that sounds like last week's rhetoric – "we've won", "there is nothing left", and "we could leave anytime".  Except, the missiles that fall on Israel seem to indicate that for a place that have been bombed to flatness, they keep finding things to fire and that’s before you got to the hacking of Kash Patel's phone, which was just plain embarrassing.  Trump's demeanour didn’t help either. A winner doesn’t whine and man has he whined a lot this week, to the point it appears he will end the war, as predicted, but has worked up a narrative that allows him to avoid the small issue of the Strait of Hormuz.  Which is of course why he is whining. He's cocked it up.  One way or another, the fact that they didn’t see the Gulf states being hit and didn’t see a waterway being used as ransom will go down in US military history as yet another interventionist cock-up.  The new timeline is a bit of a worry. 2-3 weeks fits in with the 4-6 timeline, roughly. The trouble though, if you follow Trump, is that he uses the "2-3 weeks" line a lot, on a lot of different things that, as it turns out, don’t take 2-3 weeks – almost as though he makes it up as he goes along.  Also not great is Netanyahu, who claimed they were a bit over halfway as far as targets go, which is not 2-3 weeks, given it's been almost five.  But to the good news – the Iranian President has said they will stop if they get a guarantee they are not attacked again. And this is part of the exit strategy.  A bit of back and forward, nuclear material cleared, regime largely gone, some sort of rebuild, money sorted, and it's kind of got a Gaza 2.0 vibe about it.  And then of course 2pm this afternoon is the address to the world. "An important update". Does that have the makings of the end? Let's see.  But the driving forces are the driving forces that have been at play all along – petrol in America costs too much, the cost of living is up, hiring is down, recession fears are up and the midterms are coming.  As we said last week, Trump might be mad but on the political survival front self-interest is a finely honed skill of his. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Easter is cutting this week short, so Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson joined Mike Hosking today to Wrap the Week that Was.   They discussed 75 Hard, the collapse of Allbirds, and what Kate’s been drinking recently.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 2nd of April, former US Navy Senior Chief Malcolm Nance delves into Operation Epic Fury so far.   Damien O'Connor outlines Labour's specific issues with the India Free Trade Agreement and gives his thoughts on if they'll get over the line.  Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson talk 75 Hard, Kate drinking Baileys, and the collapse of Allbirds as they Wrap the short Week.   Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Questions around Indian students and family of visa holders are still roadblocks to Labour supporting a trade deal with India.   New Zealand First's left its coalition partners in the lurch, rendering them dependent on Labour to ratify the agreement.  But leader Chris Hipkins says there's a mismatch between how the deal's been presented and what the text actually contains.  Damien O’Connor, the party’s Trade Spokesperson, told Mike Hosking trade agreements don’t typically include guaranteed work permits, but this one does.  He says that Winston Peters stirred up concerns the deal will result in New Zealand being flooded with migrants, and while that’s not the reality, they had to ask questions about the provisions and safeguards for that.   O’Connor says they don’t want thousands of students and workers coming into New Zealand and being exploited.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An end of an era for the Crusaders as they say farewell tonight in their final Super Rugby game at Apollo Projects Stadium.  The venue was constructed as a temporary solution after Lancaster Park was destroyed in the 2011 earthquakes, housing the Cantabrian side and their fans for 14 seasons.  Coach Rob Penney hopes they can give it the send off it deserves before they make the move across town to the new One New Zealand Stadium.  He told Mike Hosking emotionally, Apollo Projects means a lot to the community, but the facility has well outgrown its usefulness.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bars and pubs are waving goodbye to tricky holiday alcohol restrictions, with a bill to loosen them passing its final reading last night.  Labour MP Kieran McAnulty's bill will let hospitality venues sell alcohol across Easter, Anzac Day morning, and Christmas Day without having to serve a meal.  It's set to get Royal Assent today, in time for the long weekend.  Hospitality New Zealand’s Head of Advocacy Sam MacKinnon told Mike Hosking it’s a material change that improves customer experience.  He says it may only seem like it impacts a couple of days across the year, but for the hospitality operators, it makes a big difference.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A scathing indictment of the US.  The war on Iran has entered a second month as the US and Israel continue to bomb Iran, and Iran fires back at Gulf states.   US President Donald Trump's claiming Iran's leaders have asked for a ceasefire, which Iran's foreign ministry is calling false and baseless.   Intelligence and foreign policy analyst and former US Navy Senior Chief Malcolm Nance told Mike Hosking this administration has no regard for history.   He says whatever America learned over the last 40 years has been thrown out the window when they planned this operation.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A win for striking firefighters, with confirmation of an inquiry into the national fleet.  Parliament’s Governance and Administration Select Committee has launched the probe with hopes of increasing the number of fit-for-purpose fire trucks.  Deputy Chair and National MP Tim Costley told Newstalk ZB he has some serious questions for Fire and Emergency New Zealand.  He told Mike Hosking that he's been going around in circles with Fire and Emergency’s leadership, who have been giving contradictory and incorrect reports on how many of trucks are in use.  Costley says either the Board has been receiving incorrect answers from team leadership, they haven’t been asking questions at all, or they’ve received honest answers but haven’t passed them on – regardless of the reason, he has questions.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are hopes a successful launch to the Moon today will lay the groundwork for future Mars missions.  Artemis II's launch window begins at around midday New Zealand time, taking those on board further into space than ever.  The 10-day manned mission around the moon is the first in more than 50 years.  Astronomer Nikku Madhusudhan told Mike Hosking we will learn a lot from it.  He says it's a three-day trip to the Moon, so it's a lot easier to test equipment and technology needed to go to Mars.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Auckland housing number and the Government's housing vision now looks like a school project gone wrong.  Chris Bishop, by anyone's standards, is a competent, if not excellent, political operator but he appears to have come unstuck on Auckland housing.  His two million homes got the sort of reaction anyone with anything to do with Auckland might have expected, so after a lot of gnashing and expletives it got readjusted to 1.6 million and now, if you can believe it, it's 1.4 million.  The real issue of course is the number. All the numbers are huge, so they freak people out.  Not helping is the fact Bishop is not from Auckland, he is from the Hutt. Which doesn’t mean he can't make decisions on Auckland, it just means he doesn’t seem to know what rarks Auckland up, and the obvious suggestion is made that maybe that’s because he is from Wellington.  Making it worse is the Government has a Minister for Auckland, but he seems to be nowhere to be seen and one wonders whether he was in Bishop's ear at any point suggesting bandying around large numbers and causing confusion about high-rises in suburbia wasn’t the smartest thing he could have done.  It's not helpful either for the Government, given it's election year. Like it or not, elections are won and lost in the country's biggest city and economic engine room.  Also about to land is a report on volcanic view shafts, another of Auckland's special features Bishop doesn’t seem to get.  We can delve into it another day, but in a sign Bishop is all about bottom lines and not the real world, the report suggests there is $4 billion worth of lost productivity because of these view shafts, which is $2500 per household. The inference being if we just got on and built stuff, even if they are high-rises smack bang in the middle of your Rangitoto view, we would be off to the races economically.  I can tell Chris even before the report is released that this will go down worse than his original two million homes idea.  In really simple terms, if the National Party, and by default the Government, want to piss a large number of Aucklanders off, let Bishop loose on the place and we'll catch up for a drink at the Opposition benches. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.