The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Yet another “advice ignored” story. The trouble with advice is it's not automatically right and more often than not the media seems to think it counts for something, hence their obsession with coverage. The latest example is Paul Goldsmith ignored advice around move-on orders. The media plays these advice stories up because it suits their increasingly obvious bias against the Government. But when you read the advice it’s a mixture of the vague, wrong and made up. The best part is the bit that says evidence of a growing public disorder problem is limited. Are they serious? They obviously work from home and looked out their kitchen window at morning tea time and didn’t see any disturbances. Is there a person who has walked down Queen Street in Auckland, Courtenay Place in Wellington or their environs and not seen the trouble and upset the wonks can't see? They go on - police data showing prosecutions for such offences has declined in recent years. I repeat, are they serious? Why do you reckon that is? Just because you didn’t prosecute doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. They also, in a very political way, go on to lump all homeless or rough sleepers into the same category. The media does the same thing. It makes the very obvious and deliberate mistake of assuming all homeless or rough sleepers are the same. And like anyone else, they are not. The move-on orders are not about anyone and everyone. They are about the ones who cause trouble, who abuse the shopper or stop the proprietor getting into their business. As far as I can see, the aforementioned isn't actually mentioned in the advice. At some point the wonks might want to ask about rights. As much as you might want to argue for the right for a drug-crazed lunatic to be able to say what they want and do what they want, where they want, you might like to wonder if a punter should be able to go about their business unhindered. Out here in the real world the answer is, yes. Hence the Government move-on move reads the mood of the community, and is welcome, and will be effective, and, like the ram-raids and shop smashing's, will be dealt with. The question left is if that’s the quality of advice ministers get, I see some reasonably large and obvious savings to be made.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We have good news on housing.  1) It's still a buyers' market.  2) A good chunk of the buyers are first timers.  It’s the debate we should at least acknowledge has been, for now, partially solved.  Not long back we were where Australia currently is; young people couldn't afford a house and, with plenty of emotion, it was suggested they never would.  That wasn’t actually factually true then and it most certainly isn't now.  What is helping is two things:  1) The slow rise of prices as we move out of the recessions and into recovery. The capacity for the wider economy to grow without major house price increases is actually a good debate, or question, but one for another day.  2) Lending. There is a lot of it for first timers.  Money attached to small deposits is booming. The reason that is happening is because the Reserve Bank loosened the debt-to-income rules as well as the LVR's.  So, with less than 20% you can get into a home.  Australia has a better system. The Government backs some people into homes with 5%. It's income related and in Australia there is an attached argument around price increases, given they aren't building houses and immigration is booming.  But here we don’t have those problems, sadly. But of the two problems young people face (one being the deposit and the other being the price of a house and therefore the mortgage) it’s the deposit that is the biggest hurdle.  20% of $800,000 grand is $160,000. Saving that sort of money is ruinous to dreams, so the sooner we get past that as a hurdle the better.  A mortgage can be managed. But what is most important about all of this is the indisputable truth that housing is a Kiwi dream, if not an obsession. A house is a retirement plan and the arguments around putting your money elsewhere and spreading the basket falls largely, rightly or wrongly, on deaf ears.  If I had my way 5% would be the key, 10% max. If young people have been locked out of housing, it's not the price that’s been the killer, it's been the deposit.  The Reserve Bank rules have been, yet again, another of their mistakes. These news stats are hopefully partial rectification. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    The Warriors: 8/10  Come on! Let's start with the good news – we're one from one. A thrashing against a good side and another home game tonight.    Mariameno Kapa-Kingi: 6/10  She's back. Whether she likes being back is another thing, but good on her for fighting her corner and exposing her crappy little party.    The Covid report: 6/10  Told us what we already knew and changes nothing. Listen to Hipkins. You reckon he knows how to say sorry?    Oil: 1/10  If you ever wanted proof over how far off we are in renewables, check our reaction to $120 a barrel.    Trump: 2/10  It's over, it's not over, we need to win more, we've only just got started, I could end it today, I could end it in an hour. He redefines mental.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

My observations on week two of the war.  I'm as convinced as ever I was that this thing is over in the four week-ish window they said it would be.  If true, it means we should not have spent the week guessing when it will be over because we have already been told.  If I worry about anything it's miscalculation. The trouble with the miscalculation is we don’t really know if it is or not because most of what we hear is from the President and his Secretary of War, both of whom are cartoonish in their persona.  To say out loud he was surprised at the size of the Iranian navy is shocking. To say out loud, and both have, that they were surprised Arab states got attacked is even more shocking.  But then this was a bloke yesterday travelling through middle America telling the crowds at a rally that prices were coming down, so my faint hope is even though he is completely detached from reality, the people in the uniforms aren't.  I have no doubt Iran is fairly flattened and their ability to do a lot going forward that would bother the Western world is now severely limited.  But I also know oil isn't flowing and my equal bet is more people are worried about oil than they are about Iran.  That’s why this war, polls show, has no buy-in. We don’t care and we never did. Mind you, we may have been saved from ourselves of course because we would care if the Iranians ever really got nuclear weapons.  So if this thing ends within a month or so and oil is back to $68 a barrel, all in all, it will have been worth it.  It also shows beyond a shadow of doubt that renewables are nowhere near the answer, given when the Strait of Hormuz got closed, we didn’t all turn on our windmills.  But at the end of week two what I know is this: the economy is everything.  Economics is everything and this war will end not because Iran has been beaten, but because oil is king, petrol drives economies and Americans are voting later this year. And if they can't afford the bills because their President got sucked in by Israel, he's toast.  And as mad as Trump is, he's no idiot. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Members of the International Energy Agency have unanimously agree to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves to help combat steep oil prices arising from the conflict in the Middle East.  It equates to about four-days' worth and is the largest ever release of reserves in the agency's history.  The US is releasing 172 million barrels from their Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking the move will result in a 40% decrease in the US’ oil backstop.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's Friday, which means Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson are back with Mike Hosking to Wrap the Week that Was. With the ongoing uncertainty surrounding oil prices, the Government is considering heading back to the Muldoon-era and instituting car-less days if all else fails, so Tim, Kate, and Mike took a look back at what those days were like. And should you watch something just to see how bad it is? Mike is gobsmacked the Melania documentary was ever made, and thinks everyone needs to watch it. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An energy industry lobby group is warning the decline in domestic gas supply is a sign of a shrinking economy.  PwC research —commissioned by Gas Industry Co— suggests the gas market must contract sharply as domestic supply falls, potentially leading to business closures, job losses, and higher energy costs.  The research assumes the Maui field will stop producing in 2027.  Energy Resources Aotearoa Chief Executive John Carnegie told Mike Hosking modelling suggests the economic impact will be significant.  He says a report for MBIE found that without LNG terminals and with the loss of domestic supply, New Zealand's GDP will be about 0.1% lower in 2035.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 13th of March, is the Government really considering car-less days because of the fuel instability? What are the other options? Nicola Willis discussed the details.  Richie Barnett unpacked the Warriors' performance against the Roosters and looked ahead to tonight’s clash against the Raiders.  And Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson talked the days of car-less cars, the Melania documentary, and whether you should watch something just to see how bad it is as they Wrapped the Week.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Warriors are in for a challenge as they aim to go two for two in the NRL season.   They stunned the Roosters in their opening clash, claiming victory 42-18 at Mt Smart Stadium.   The Warriors are back at Mount Smart tonight, this time for a clash against the Raiders.  Former Kiwis Captain Richie Barnett told Mike Hosking the Roosters were ill-disciplined – they didn’t give respect to the Warriors, and they got caned in all areas of the game.  But the Raiders are a different side, and he says their ruck speed is the best in the game – if you control that, you control the game.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A massive new power user could put extra pressure on the South Island’s electricity system.  Datagrid has just received resource consent for a $3 billion, 78 thousand square metre data centre north of Invercargill.  About 1,200 jobs will work on the construction and about 50 people will staff the facility.  It will be the second-largest power user in the country behind the nearby Tiwai Aluminium Smelter.  Auckland University computer science lecturer Ulrich Speidel told Mike Hosking it's going to shift the power balance in the South Island quite a bit.  He says in terms of power use, that’s about 70% of what Christchurch consumes, and you can’t just add major power users without eventually running into generation limits.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.