The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Was this the final nail in the Adrian Orr coffin?  Can we add Christian Hawkesby and the entire monetary policy committee? After all, it's easy to blame a governor, but it’s a committee that votes on what to do with the cash rate.  After the famed Q2 finished (remember April, May and June), we come to the next committee decision in July. Orr is gone, Hawkesby is up, and they have just witnessed the previous three months.  And what do they do? Nothing. No change. They held.  Why? Because they felt things were in hand.  They also said the economy would contract 0.3%.  Yesterday came the proof that it's hard, when you are actually paid as a so-called expert, to get it more wrong than they did.  We all felt it and knew it. Most of us wouldn't have been able to put a number round it like the banks have to, but most of us don’t have the data they have access to.  But what we all knew was it was bad, it was tight, it was ugly, and it wasn’t going in the right direction.  But the gap between -0.3% and -0.9% is inexcusable.  The same way it is inexcusable to stand there in July and tell us more stimulus wasn’t needed.  At some point someone has to be held to account. Yes, Orr is gone, but only because he packed a sad. Yes, Quigley is gone, but only because he got found out.  No one has actually been held to account for a spectacular failure to do the job. Why are the Monetary Policy Committee members still in work? How many of them are there because of their so-called "expertise" versus being appointed for the so-called “right” reasons?  Results count. Facts matter.  And here is the issue for the Government: as the poll showed us this week, a lot of New Zealanders blame the Government for the economy.  They have been let down in no small part by the Reserve Bank and when the Prime Minister the other week on this show fired off a bit of advice, all the pointy heads wrote op-eds whining about independence.  Independence is fine. But not if you're useless. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s Friday so Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson are back with Mike Hosking to Wrap the Week that Was.  Mike decided to end the week with another pop quiz – this time on things that were covered on the programme this morning. Kate was not enthused.   Plus the school holidays are coming up, so they had to touch on everyone’s plans.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 19th of September, Sir John Key has some advice for Finance Minister Nicola Willis, who has some tough questions to answer after that Q2 GDP result.  The Government is flying the flag for the wool industry in China.  Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson take a pop quiz and discuss school holidays plans as they Wrap the Week.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We’re in the business end of the Women’s Rugby World Cup, but a former Black Ferns captain is warning against getting cocky.  The Black Ferns have made light work of Spain, Japan, Ireland, and South Africa, leading them to the semi-finals.  Saturday morning will see them face off against the World No 2 team – Canada.   Former Captain Dr Farah Palmer told Mike Hosking that although it’s likely we’ll make it through and face England in the final, she wouldn’t take Canada lightly.  She says the last time we played Canada was a draw, and the time before that was a loss, so we need to focus on Canada first, not the finals.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The axing of Jimmy Kimmel's late-night show has sparked debate around freedom of speech.  Kimmel has been pulled off air indefinitely by ABC over his comments relating to the Charlie Kirk killing.  The late-night host suggested Kirk, who was shot at a Utah University last week, was killed by a pro-Trump Republican.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking reactions are sharply partisan.  He says that some, like former Fox host Geraldo Rivera, believe Kimmel’s statements were inappropriate and it’s wrong to overthink the suspension and make it about government, censorship, and other issues.  But on the other side, Arnold says, is people like former President Barack Obama, who says cancel culture has been taken to a new and dangerous level.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Negotiations between senior doctors and the Government have broken down.   They've rejected a $160 million offer and are set to strike for 48 hours next week.   The Association of Salaried Medical Specialists had put a proposal which would have cost about $300 million.   Executive Director Sarah Dalton told Mike Hosking doctors are playing catch up.   She says doctors haven't had pay increases lower than inflation since the pandemic.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis says a new Reserve Bank Governor will be announced “very shortly” as she comes under growing pressure to tackle New Zealand’s economic woes. Economists are calling on the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate more aggressively after yesterday’s shock GDP result. New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.9% in the June quarter, a reduction well over market expectations. Expectations were for a 0.4% decline in GDP, while Reserve Bank forecasts were for a 0.3% drop. The worse-than-expected outcome could mean the Reserve Bank will cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) more aggressively than was previously thought, economists said. In an interview with Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking this morning, Willis was asked what she expects from the Reserve Bank to address the situation. “I will very shortly be announcing a new governor for the Reserve Bank. Obviously, we’ve had a chair change at the Reserve Bank. We are refreshing that institution and I think that is very good indeed,” Willis said. She would not give a specific date for the announcement, instead describing it as happening “very shortly”. She confirmed she knew who the new Governor is. Christian Hawkesby is the current Acting Governor of the Reserve Bank. He was appointed to a six-month term in April following Adrian Orr’s resignation in March. Willis told Hosking Kiwis shouldn't get down about the latest drop in GDP and we mustn't talk our way into a recession.  She says we shouldn't overreact to a bad quarter – we've got to keep playing the full game, dig in, and do the things that are needed to grow the economy.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Associate Agriculture Minister believes wool is making a comeback and New Zealand could double its exports over the next decade.  Mark Patterson is in China for the country's largest wool conference, where he'll meet with industry representatives, wool growers, and processors.  It's our largest trading partner for wool, with $176 million of $446 million in total exports heading there last year.  Patterson told Mike Hosking farmers can be confident with how the market's moving.  He says the price is at an eight year high and steadily increasing, and while supply has been declining, demand has been ramping up, which is what's really needed.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sir John Key says the Reserve Bank deserves much of the blame for the latest sharp drop in GDP.  Our economy's contracted 0.9% in the June quarter.  The Government says international turmoil and uncertainty over tariffs have driven the fall, which was much larger than expected.  Key told Mike Hosking the OCR was also a major factor.  He says two months ago he was criticised for calling for the OCR to come down 100-basis points, but that will probably now happen by Christmas.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Having argued the other week for compulsory KiwiSaver, it was sort of ironic, but probably lucky, that several reports came out post the comments that wanted the same thing.  Then enter Winston who wants it as well, and will pay for it, apparently with tax cuts.  Of course the tax cuts are completely unaffordable, but it doesn’t make the compulsion a bad idea.  I personally am not for compulsion, but it seems the only way to solve our never-ending inability to save.  Here is what possibly is the defining argument: a bloke called John O'Malley, who works for Deloitte, has written a paper on creditor and debtor nations.  That is when you take all of a country's financial dealings with the world and work out who owes what.  Places like Germany and Japan and Switzerland are what they call "creditor nations". They are owed money.  The debtor nations owe the money. It will not surprise you that New Zealand is a debtor nation.  Australia, which is where the paper originated, is what they call a "switcher nation". In other words, Australia has been a debtor, but the numbers have reversed dramatically. Net foreign liabilities have gone from 63% of GDP in 2016 to 32%, to now 24%.  If it keeps going, you're a creditor nation.  How have they done this? Well, it's through a number of things because economies are complex, but no small contributor has been superannuation.   Former Labor Treasurer Paul Keating introduced compulsion in 1992 from employee and employer, and they have never looked back.  Yes, they had the usual arguments – it cuts into pay rises, it's unaffordable, etc. But 30-something years later the proof is in the numbers. We have an average KiwiSaver of $30,000-ish. They have an average of $130,000-ish.  Recently, for the first time, they could say a person starting work and working for 40 years on an average salary could look forward to retiring in comfort.  So, a problem solved. They don’t debate retirement and its cost, and the wealth created makes them on the verge of being a creditor nation, joining the heavyweights like Japan and Germany and Switzerland.  So New Zealand or Australia? Who would you rather be?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.