Michael Covel's Trend Following

My guest today is Al Abaroa, the Chief Investment Strategist at Kingsview and has been a registered broker and trader since 1993. He has seen all aspects of the investing industry. The topic is a white paper that Abaroa wrote about trend following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How people forget that anything can and will happen Why we're seeing optimistic behavior in the market The similarities between the WhatsApp/Facebook acquisition and the AOL/Time Warner acquisition Abaroa's wealth formula "Reasonable returns" Long term vs. short term outlooks The advantages of youth in trading Lifespan growth, and retirement Tom Basso and black swan events Looking back on major crashes Development and distribution as the two modalities of price Focusing on price action The Global Volatility Index Looking at black swan periods as a place to profit The asymmetrical return stream and the asymmetrical nature of trend following Why trend following produces returns a minority of the time Position sizing Fixed contract allocation vs. fixed fractional contract allocation and their role in position sizing Trend following investors and market timing Seeking immediate gratification in trend following investments Looking at trend following track records Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Please enjoy my monologue Trend Following Winners, Daniel Kahneman, and Tina Turner with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Jonathan Hoenig, an American, founding member of the Capitalist Pig hedge fund, and a regular contributor to and regular panelist on Fox News Channel's Cashin' In, Your World with Neil Cavuto, Red Eye w/ Greg Gutfeld and WLS 890's morning show, Don Wade & Roma. The topic is his documentary Pit Trading 101. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Hoenig's branding for his hedge fund, Capitalist Pig Why capitalism has become demonized The difference between capitalism and crony capitalism Ayn Rand and capitalism as the "unknown ideal" How Hoenig ended up in the Chicago trading pits, and what we can learn from studying pit trading today The physical type of pit traders The subculture of the pits Where Hoenig sees futures markets going The blame of speculators America's place in the world today Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Daniel Kahneman, the second Nobel Prize winner to appear on this podcast. Kahneman is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. The topic is behavioral psychology. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Kahneman's beginnings, and how he came to realize he was looking at the world from a different vantage point than most How Kahneman's work is foundational to trading Questioning the dogma of rationality Happiness, and the distinction between the remembering self and the experiencing self The consumption of memories The danger of not making peace with a loss Bubbles and crowd behavior Happiness research and public policy Emotion, possibility, and probability Hope and fear Why optimism is the engine of capitalism The influence of prospect theory Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is John Bollinger, an American author, financial analyst, contributor to the field of technical analysis and the developer of Bollinger Bands. Since 1987, he has published the Capital Growth Letter, a newsletter which provides technical analysis of the financial markets. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Bollinger Bands as described for the lay person Defining when a price is relatively high or relatively low Defining "relatively high" and "relatively low" Measuring volatility to determine the "width" of a Bollinger Band Standard deviation The beginnings of Bollinger Bands, and how John Bollinger came to put it together Different ideas about volatility in the 1980s Some of Bollinger's early curiosity triggers, and why he started digging into finance after going to art school Light, film, and Bollinger's experience at the School of Visual Arts Bollinger's experience in his apprenticeship to learn technical analysis "The best authority is the price itself", and why this statement isn't very well accepted in the mainstream Differences between fundamental and technical analysts Bollinger's look at media and the presentation of his message over the years Why Bollinger would be known as a quantitative analyst instead of a technician if he started his career now Position sizing Why volatility is the least understood aspect of the market Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Please enjoy my monologue Seykota, Harding & the 2014 Trend Following Conference with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Dave Rapach, an internationally renowned researcher in the area of asset return forecasting. His research is highly cited and published in leading scholarly and practitioner journals in Finance and Economics. Rapach is a Professor of Economics and holds the John Simon Endowed Chair in Economics at the Saint Louis University Chaifetz School of Business. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Why trend following works from an academic standpoint "Publish or perish" and the difficulty of publishing scholarly articles on trend following Early research on trend following, the random walk theory, and Burton Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" Warren Buffett, Bill Dunn, and survivorship bias A paper that Rapach traces to the reintroduction of trend following and technical analysis to the academic community Measuring systematic risk Eugene Fama's recent nobel prize How the trend following world has been neglected by the academic community How Rapach found his way into the academic finance world Covel's experience digging in to trend following research in the early to mid 1990's Some of Rapach's recent papers Why recessions are good for trend following Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Ed Seykota, a commodities trader, who earned S.B. degrees in Electrical Engineering from MIT and Management from the MIT Sloan School of Management, both in 1969. In 1970 he pioneered Systems trading by using early punched card computers to test ideas on trading the markets. The topic is his book Govopoly in the 39th Day. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Trend Following Seykota's concerns about our economy The assimilation model and how Seykota sees assimilation happening today The definition of "govopoly" How Seykota's mentor's work plays into Seykota's work today Thinking about systems What we can do to "fix" the economy, or to at least prepare yourself The exponential curve that assimilation takes Noticing things before they're important Why Seykota doesn't provide a "solution" to the problem and instead advocates for the system to correct itself What we can do as people in response to the system Detroit as a microcosm of the US Ways to make money during the assimilation Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Dominic Frisby, a self-proclaimed accidental financial bod, comedian, actor of unrecognized genius, voice of many things, & presenter. The topic is his book Life After the State: Why We Don't Need Government. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Frisby's beginnings as an actor and comedian What comedy can teach us about finance and the discipline of clarity How Cuba's currency confusion led the nation to unfortunate circumstances Real estate Other peoples' trust in the state How the poor and needy would be cared for in a society without a state The monopoly on compassion How the state takes a piece of everything "Greed is good", "money is the root of all evil", etc Crony capitalism Predation vs. productivity The influence of lobbyists The duopoly on money by banks and the state Education Bitcoin, digital currency, and taxation Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

My guest today is Harry Dent, a Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, noted speaker and bestselling author. Harry is the founder and senior editor at Dent Research, where he dedicates himself to identifying and studying demographic, technological, and geopolitical trends. The topic is his book The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation Ahead. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Why demographics are so important The definition of the "demographic cliff" Demographic comparisons between the US and Asia Rates of urbanization and GDP in emerging countries The baby boomer generation The Japanese "coma economy" Why the retirement age needs to be raised How real estate in America will never be the same "Die-ers" vs. buyers Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!