Equitile Conversations

In this March 29th, 2026 episode of Equitile Conversations, Gerald Ashley and George Cooper offer a downbeat assessment of the escalating US-Iran war in the Gulf and its profound impact on global supply chains and financial markets. They describe a major negative supply shock triggered by widespread destruction of energy infrastructure, with the US reportedly planning ground troops into Iran. Oil prices spiked near US$120 per barrel before moderating above US$110 despite strategic reserve releases and temporary de-sanctioning of Russian and Iranian supplies. Fuel shortages are already appearing globally. They both warn the disruption will be durable, lasting months to possibly years, affecting not only energy but also fertilizers and agriculture. Emerging second-order effects, such as diesel and fertilizer shortages for Australian farmers, are expected to drive food price inflation with a 6–12 month lag. This points to a protracted inflationary period reminiscent of the late 1970s.George argues that central banks should avoid hiking interest rates, as this is an exogenous shock; tightening policy risks compounding the damage by discouraging necessary investment. Despite this, the ECB is considering rate rises and the Bank of England appears uncertain. The discussion also covers ballooning US debt (now US$39 trillion), strained fiscal positions in the West, questions over AI investment viability, and geopolitical shifts. Using the physics concept of the “elastic limit,” they suggest the global order may not return to its previous state, potentially weakening US dominance and accelerating de-dollarisation.This Episodes RecommendationsGeraldThe Beer GameA free easy to play simulation here:https://beergame.transentis.com/GeorgeTiny Rowland – A Rebel Tycoon by Tom Bower

In this February 2026 edition of Equitile Conversations, host Gerald Ashley interviews Nic Rogers, head of research at Equitile, revisiting energy markets after their accurate 2025 call: volatile natural gas but subdued oil.Rogers highlights a rotation toward value and "heavy asset, low obsolescence" stocks, with energy sector outperformance early in 2026, leading the S&P 500—unusual and historically bearish for other sectors. Oil majors and services firms offer strong cash flows, 5-10%+ buyback/dividend yields, low debt, and historically cheap valuations. The oil-to-gold ratio (~80:1, vs. historical ~20:1) signals extreme undervaluation; past extremes below 30:1 averaged 32% oil returns in the following year.Bullish drivers include emerging market demand (e.g., India), potential weak dollar, geopolitical tensions (Iran, Venezuela, Russia), and limited supply growth from underinvestment (upstream capex ~36% below 2014 peaks) and high shale depletion. Offshore discoveries (Guyana, Brazil, Namibia) favour deepwater, with tight ultra-deepwater rig capacity post-Transocean/Valaris merger potentially boosting services.Many energy analysts remain bearish (e.g., IEA glut forecasts), but markets increasingly ignore them, starting to price in a premium. A supply squeeze could surprise, especially if US shale softens.Natural gas ties to AI/data centre power demand as a bridge fuel until nuclear scales (decades away). US LNG exports double capacity, lifting the price floor amid volatility ("widow maker"). Midstream pipelines offer stable, toll-like returns.Coal holds approx. 28% global share, the market is Asia-centric (China uses it to firm renewables), with supply constraints in the West (e.g., Australia permitting near-zero new coal mining projects).Overall, Rogers paints a bullish case for oil (upside surprise) and gas (rising floor despite swings), amid rotation from digital to physical assets. Coal will continue to persist longer-term.About Nicholas RogersNicholas Rogers is Head of Research at Equitile Investments, joining in 2024. With close to a decade of experience in wealth and asset management, he previously worked at several bulge bracket banks, including HSBC and Citi in Sydney, Australia. His interests lie in the commodity markets and identifying broader macroeconomic trends. This episodes book recommendationsGeraldPrisoners of Geography by Tim MarshallNicholasThe Rise of Carry by Lee, Lee, and Coldiron 

They revive the Savoy Gold Dinner ratio and compare a 1971 meal to a 2026 bill to show gold’s changed buying power. They explore a rotation from digital to capital-heavy physical assets like metals, fertilizers, shipping and energy. They argue AI is commoditising software moats while governments’ rising debt and money creation boost demand for scarce tangible stores of value.

In this episode George & Gerald chatted to macro economist Doug McWilliams about the perennial topic of economic growth.Growth doesn’t arrive by accident. They dig into a concrete plan to raise livingstandards in the UK by combining a simpler tax system, targeted deregulation, and policies that bring more people back into productive work, drawing on insights from a new book Prosperity Through Growth.It’s core argument is simple: in a world where talent and capital move easily, policy mistakes get punished quickly, and clarity becomes a competitive edge.Doug explained why a staged path to a 20% flat tax alongside the abolition of national insurance could lift output over time, and why regulation—not just its level but its instability—has become a prime drag on investment. From planning rules that stall housing to compliance costs that turn basic banking into a slog, we explore the hidden frictions that sap productivity.At the same time, we examine demographic headwinds—ageing, low birth rates, and falling participation—and the mixed lessons from Japan on how to sustain GDP per capita through smarter labour policies.However there are some bright spots, the UK’s flat white economy—tech and digital services—is booming, helped by freedom from restrictive EU digital acts. We ask what else could grow if given simpler, stable rules and why drifting back into heavier frameworks could undo our brightest gains.Finally to perhaps lighten the mood, rather than the usual book recommendations, the three of them discuss their favourite cars.About Douglas McWilliamsDouglas McWilliams most recently co-authored with Michael Hintze, Matthew Elliot and the great Art Laffer ‘Prosperity Through Growth’ about how to achieve economic growth in a world of autocracy and AI. Previously he has written the Flat White Economy, identifying the unlikely growth sector in East London, The Inequality Paradox about how globalisation has reduced poverty worldwide while at the same time raising inequality in formerly rich countries and Driving the Silk Road, about how the areas between China and the West are being affected by Chinese industrialisation – the book emerged from the Peking to Paris car rally in which he participated in a 1950s Bentley.Douglas was the founder of Cebr which he sold the day before the 2024 Budget. Previously he had been Chief Economist for the CBI and for IBM UK. He was the Gresham Professor of Commerce 2011-13 and chaired the economics committee of Business EuropeDoug's New book - Prosperity Through Growth

Never mind beating the benchmark when the benchmark is quietly making the real decisions. Gerald Ashley and George Cooper pull back the curtain on how index choice shifts risk onto investors, fuels herding, and even distorts the wider economy. From the S&P 500’s ninefold climb to the FTSE’s more modest tripling, they unpack why “go passive” still demands a critical, high stakes decision about which index to follow and which currencies to carry.The conversation digs into the perverse logic of bond benchmarks that allocate more money to the largest borrowers, weakening market discipline and rewarding profligacy. They explore how capweighted equity indices concentrate capital in today’s winners, raising volatility and inflating bubbles, while managers hide behind relative performance. The solution starts with a better mandate: target returns above inflation, not a promise to hug an index. That shift aligns portfolios with real world goals like retirement income and purchasing power, and it demands genuine active thinking rather than closet indexing.Governance gets a frank assessment too. With proxy voting often outsourced,economic priorities can be diluted by political agendas, leaving savers to fund unclear trade-offs. Gerald and George argue that if society wants cleaner air or fairer work, those costs should be priced by policy, not buried in passive voting guidelines. Yet there’s optimism: index flows have created a market split between crowded themes—think AI infrastructure—and overlooked “antibubble” assets. For investors willing to do the work, that dispersion offers real value and better odds of compounding above inflation. If you care about real returns, not just neat tracking error, this is a reframe worth your time. Follow the show, share with a friend who loves a good debate, and leave a review with your take on benchmarks—do they help you stay disciplined, or are they holding your portfolio back?This episodes book recommendationsGeraldThe Origin Of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of EconomicsGeorge (A film)In Time - starring Justin Timberlake

In this edition George Cooper and Gerald Ashley are joined by Helen Thomas of Blonde Money.Are many governments in the developed world facing a fiscal Mission Impossible?They looked at current financial risks, global fiscal challenges, and central bank independence, focusing on the political implications.The conversation highlighted how political systems and electoral dynamics are shaping economic policies in the post-COVID era, with concerns about rising government debt, market volatility, and the IMF's limited bailout capacity.They discussed central bank independence, suggesting it may align with government needs rather than being truly autonomous, and also explored potential political and economic shifts over the next decade, including inflation's role in addressing debt.About Helen Thomas (aka Blonde Money)Helen Thomas is the founder and CEO of Blonde Money, an independent consultancy firm established in 2014, focusing on mispriced risks in financial markets across the USA, UK, and EU. She has over 20 years of experience in banking, fund management, and politics, including roles as a partner at ABD Investment Management and Head of Currency Alpha at State Street Global Advisors. Thomas served as an adviser to former UK Chancellor George Osborne in 2008 and created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for Policy Exchange. She holds a degree in PPE from Oxford, is a CFA Charterholder, a freeman of the City of London and a former board member of CFA UK.She is a regular columnist for City AM, a London-based business newspaper. Her columns focus on financial markets, economic trends, and political developments. Additionally, she co-authored the book Masters of Nothing with MP Matthew Hancock and is a frequent speaker and media commentator on financial and political topics.This episodes book recommendationsGeraldThe Way We Live Now by Anthony TrollopeGeorgeThe Alchemy of Finance by George SorosHelenThe Seventh Floor by David McCloskey

In this Equitile Conversations episode, Gerald Ashley and George Cooper, joined by guest Michael Power, discuss the outdated term "emerging markets." They argue it inaccurately describes dynamic economies like China, which lead in technology and growth, while traditional "developed" markets like the US exhibit characteristics once associated with emerging markets, such as fiscal issues and currency volatility.They criticise the reliance on indices and ETFs that oversimplify investment decisions and highlight a lack of holistic asset allocation. Power notes the variety of opportunities in so-called emerging markets, driven by long-term growth potential, and discusses de-dollarisation trends, with countries like India and the UAE trading in local currencies.Cooper emphasises unconstrained investing, focusing on companies with strong growth in these regions.About Michael PowerMichael Power is a prominent South African financial markets commentator and strategist, known for his extensive career in global investment, with a focus on Africa and emerging markets. His career spans several decades and includes roles at major financial institutions such as Anglo American, NM Rothschild & Sons, HSBC, and Baring Asset Management, with work in South Africa, London, and Kenya. Power’s expertise centres on geo-economics, the role of Asia in the 21st century, and Africa’s economic relationships with global markets.This episodes book recommendationsReflecting themes of financial history, economic dystopia, and dollar dominance challenges.GeraldThe Railway King by Robert BeaumontGeorgeThe Mandibles by Lionel ShriverMichael Our Dollar, Your Problem by Kenneth Rogoffequitileconversations.com

In this episode Gerald Ashley is joined by Nicholas Rogers, an equity analyst at Equitile.They take a look at the three major energy markets of oil, natural gas and coal, which together supply up to 90% of global energy.They discuss the current stability of oil prices despite Middle East tensions, with softening Western demand but strong Asian growth, and the importance particularly of China’s strategic oil reserves via the “Beijing put.”  And is Offshore oil’s cost-effectiveness challenging peak oil theories?Natural gas, at 23% of global energy usage, is a key bridge fuel, with US exports reshaping European energy security post-Russia-Ukraine conflict. Asia is driving a projected 60% demand increase by 2040. A bright future for Natural Gas?Coal, at 26% of global energy, remains critical, especially in China’s new power stations and for industrial uses, despite Western phase-outs.The episode highlights the global economy’s reliance on fossil fuels and the priority of energy security.About Nicholas RogersNicholas Rogers is an Equity Analyst and Investment Committee member at Equitile Investments, joining in 2024. With close to a decade of experience in wealth and asset management, he previously worked at several bulge bracket banks, including HSBC and Citi in Sydney, Australia. His interests lie in the commodity markets and identifying broader macroeconomic trends. This episodes book recommendationsGeraldKings of Shanghai by Jonathan KaufmanNicholasThe World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources by Javier Blas and Jack Farchy

In this episode of Equitile Conversations, Gerald Ashley and George Cooper discuss the mechanics and challenges of pension systems, focusing on their reliance on current workers and demographic trends. They explain that state pensions, like the UK's, are "pay-as-you-go," funded by taxing current workers rather than a saved pot of money, dispelling the myth of a personal pension fund.Pre-funded pension schemes, where individuals save into assets like equities and bonds, also depend on future generations to buy those assets when retirees sell, creating a demographic dependency. The conversation highlights a looming crisis due to aging populations and declining fertility rates. In the UK, pensioners have risen from 13% of the population in 1975 to nearly 19% in 2024, with projections suggesting a quarter of the population will be over 65 within a decade. Low fertility rates exacerbate the issue, as fewer workers support more retirees.The UK's "triple lock" policy, which ensures pensions rise with the highest of inflation, wage growth, or a fixed rate, further strains younger generations, who face higher taxes, student debt, and asset price challenges, reducing their ability to have children or buy assets.Also the heavy reliance on long-dated government bonds in pension funds, driven by asset-liability matching, can be flawed due to central banks' manipulation of bond yields through quantitative easing, which distorts inflation forecasts.Finally a look at equities being better suited for pensions as they align with inflation-driven corporate revenues. Rising bond yields and government borrowing signal future inflation, potentially eroding pension values, acting as a hidden tax.This Episodes Book RecommendationsGerald suggests:Odds n Sods -  My Life in The Betting Businessby Ron PollardGeorge suggests:Riches Among the Ruins: Adventures in the Dark Corners of the Global Economyby Robert P Smith

Are we experiencing peak dollar as a reserve currency? In this latest episode we examine this complex but crucial question for investors, policymakers, and businesses.With the federal deficit running at a staggering 8.8% of GDP—a level typically associated with major economic crises rather than normal times—we're witnessing what could be a pivotal moment in global finance.The dollar's reserve status has provided America with significant advantages: lower borrowing costs and the privilege of seigniorage (essentially getting goods in exchange for printed money). Yet this same strength has gradually eroded American manufacturing competitiveness.Looking forward, the challenges are mounting. The US needs to refinanceapproximately $3 trillion in debt while managing a $1 trillion defence budget and interest costs approaching the same figure. Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency programme has so far fallen short of its savings targets.This perfect fiscal storm suggests we may see a return to quantitative easing—or to be candid "monetisation"—with governments printing money to pay bills.While we may be witnessing the early stages of a multi-decade transition rather than an imminent collapse of the dollar system, the current situation deserves close attention from anyone concerned with global economic stability.This Episodes Book RecommendationsGerald suggests:Money & Promisesby Paolo ZannoniAnd George recommended:Deceit and Self-Deception: Fooling Yourself the Better to Fool Othersby Robert Trivers