Dealcast: The M&A Podcast

Auri Aittokallio, Mergermarket’s head of Nordics and assistant editor, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why a new space race between the US and China is igniting deal flow in Europe.How will increased spending by members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) impact companies in Europe?What is driving a modest recovery in M&A volumes in the sector?If the trajectory continues, what kind of deals will be likely to see?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast

Reuben Miller, Mergermarket’s global chief regulatory editor and expert on regulatory impacts, dives into the complexities of tariffs affecting dealmaking. He discusses the precarious dance between the US and China amid rising tensions. Miller analyzes the potential surge in demand for US manufacturing assets due to Trump's trade threats and explores the implications of trade policies on future mergers. He highlights challenges in navigating antitrust laws and geopolitical factors, emphasizing how these dynamics could reshape the M&A landscape.

While momentum from deal volumes in the second half of 2024 is expected to continue into 2025, there remains uncertainty and a lingering “wait and see” approach while the impact of certain policies under President Donald Trump, like tariffs, are still unknown. Sources also anticipate more megadeals this year as the US moves away from the antitrust environment that stopped deals, like the Kroger and Albertsons merger, for example.In addition, new consumer trends favoring health-conscious snacking and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic could change the shape of M&A targets, exemplified in Ferrero Group’s recent acquisition of Power Crunch.Brian Yue, Mergermarket’s New York-based consumer and retail reporter, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the outlook for dealmaking in the sector this year, including:How the rise of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic could impact food & beverage dealsHow underlying consumer trends towards health & wellness will drive dealmakingHow Trump’s policies could impact the international food & beverage supply chain and labor forceAll this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Azul’s non-binding proposal to merge with Gol to face antitrust challenge Trump’s interventionist rhetoric hangs over Mexican marketOne of the key ongoing deals in Latin America is designed to enhance the aviation industry in Brazil. Airline Azul entered a non-binding agreement to merge with its troubled peer Gol earlier this month. If the deal goes ahead, it will face tough antitrust scrutiny.Thiago Barrozo Mergermarket’s Latin America Editor, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why the deal is so important at a time when the Brazilian currency is down against the dollar and interest rates are rising.Given the tough macro-economic environment, what other deals could we see in Brazil?How have US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs against Mexico affected dealmakers' moods in that country?How are deal volumes in Latin America?All this and more in this week's Dealcast

Dealmakers in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) are cautiously optimistic about M&A pipelines in 2025, with energy providers for data centres likely to be a significant source of activity.The rise in artificial intelligence (AI) is driving strong demand for data centres. Behind the scenes, data centre owners are cutting deals with utilities to supply renewable energy – and these energy providers in turn need to seek significant amounts of private capital to help fund the investments. Spain’s Iberdrola is likely to be a major player in this trend. Its new data centres business already has a valuation above EUR 2bn and it is seeking investment of up to EUR 10bn in the area.Rupert Cocke, Mergermarket’s senior features editor for EMEA, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss this trend, along with the ongoing consolidation of the European asset management space and other market developments.Adnoc’s ongoing takeover of Covestro was the largest deal of last year. Will Covestro still be a source of activity after the deal closes in 2H25?Interest rates are expected to fall this year. What does that mean for private equity dealmaking?Europe accounted for more than 90% of EMEA deal value in 2024. How can dealmakers drive more pan-EMEA M&A by putting sovereign capital from the Middle East to work?

Tom Kane, Mergermarket’s US-based funds editor, delves into the NFL's new resolution allowing private equity investments in team franchises. He highlights the significant valuation of teams and the burgeoning trend of sports as an asset class. Kane discusses how firms secure approval for team stakes and touches on existing investor involvement, particularly with the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. The conversation also explores opportunities in sports broadcasting and infrastructure, alongside the future of investments in women's sports and college teams.

European dealmakers need to consider national-security concerns, state subsidies to make deals happenTrump’s second term likely to accelerate protectionist trendsAdvisors and consultants who want to help their European clients access Chinese capital need to work hard on narratives that emphasise industrial use cases while downplaying any national security concerns.The continent badly needs investment to rebuild its manufacturing base. At the same time, Chinese investors are thinking about deploying capital overseas to sidestep an acceleration of protectionist trends throughout the world when President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House next month.There are two main hurdles to clear to make these cross-border transactions happen. Dealmakers need to show that bringing Chinese capital into European manufacturing is safe from a national-security perspective; while downplaying the risks of state subsidies in the Asian giant distorting home-grown markets.John West, Mergermarket’s managing editor for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Luuk de Klein, head of analytics (EMEA), join Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why the art of the defensive deal is likely to be a big theme of Trump’s second term throughout the world.https://mergermarket.ionanalytics.com/content/1004138166What are the implications for global markets of a likely block on Nippon Steel’s [TYO:5402] USD 15bn takeover of US Steel [NYSE:X]?https://mergermarket.ionanalytics.com/content/1004148730Has Europe’s automotives industry been able to access Chinese capital as it struggles with the transition to electric vehicles (EVs)?Why is the fine print of any incoming tariffs so important for any dealmakers considering defensive transactions in the US?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast

The post-closing period is when companies are most vulnerable to hacks. The deal announcement might have attracted the attention of malicious hackers at a time that large amounts of data are changing hands.Peter A. Emmi, partner and leader in the Technology Transactions practice within Reed Smith’s Global Corporate Group has some clear advice for dealmakers: “Do your homework and prepare well.” Key steps include securing virtual data rooms (VDRs) and only using artificial intelligence (AI) tools in private networks.Emmi joins Aurelia Seidlhofer, Mergermarket’s Senior Germany, Austria and Switzerland (DACH) correspondent, and Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the risks around dealmaking, including AI systems generating hard-to-spot mistakes or copyright issues. They also discuss some of the opportunities.Why are junior staff seeing a bigger impact on their workflows than their senior colleagues?Is AI a game-changer for dealmakers? Or is it more about incremental changes?How can AI be used in deal sourcing, due diligence and in drafting legal documents?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast M&A Tales, which looks at the human side of M&A.

Ling Yang, the China-based editor for Mergermarket, shares her expertise on how U.S. tariffs under Trump may shift Chinese M&A focus to Europe and Southeast Asia. The conversation dives into the strategic responses from Chinese dealmakers in light of geopolitical tensions. They explore the implications of China's recent stimulus on cross-border transactions and Walmart's evolving role in China, including its strategic divestment from JD.com. Yang also discusses the competitive landscape for acquisitions amidst these changing dynamics.

Australia’s leaky M&A market is worrying market regulators.One of the most notorious examples came last year, during a deal involving Nitro Software, when a newspaper published the names of the regulators on Australia’s Takeovers Panel that were scrutinising the transaction.As a result of disclosures like this, both the Takeovers Panel and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) have expressed concerns about drops of confidential deal information through backchannels.Simon Segal, Mergermarket’s Australia director, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the different reasons why market insiders leak information. Are deals where info is leaked more likely to lapse than those that maintain a veil of secrecy?What are the penalties for deal practitioners who get caught leaking confidential information?Is there a market transparency case to justify some leaks some of the time?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast