New Wave.

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Drilling for the Future of EnergyCan geologic hydrogen and deep geothermal actually power the world?We’re joined by Andy Lubershane, Partner at Energy Impact Partners and author of Steel For Fuel. In this episode, we go deep underground, into geologic hydrogen and geothermal, and unpack what it really takes to unlock planet-scale, zero-carbon energy from beneath our feet.In our conversation, we covered:→ Why hydrogen went from “Swiss Army knife” to overhyped, and where it actually matters→ The brutal economics of green hydrogen vs. gray hydrogen (and why cost still dominates)→ Geologic hydrogen: drilling for a naturally occurring clean fuel→ The wild uncertainty: from niche resource to “powering civilization for millennia” → Why geothermal today is tiny, and what’s blocking it from scaling globally→ The real bottleneck: drilling deeper (and why it’s harder than it sounds)→ Why deep geothermal could outperform fusion, if we solve the engineeringThis is episode four of a five part series. Subscribe to receive every episode. 👇 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Drilling the Future, Can Geothermal Power Everything?From 0.01% to 8%, what it takes to unlock next-gen geothermal at scale.We’re joined by Torsten Kolind, Co-founder of Underground Ventures, a specialist VC fund backing next-generation geothermal technologies.In this episode, we dive into why geothermal, one of the most reliable and abundant energy sources, remains almost invisible today, and unpack what it really takes to turn a niche resource into a global energy backbone.In our conversation, we covered:→ Why geothermal is still ~0.014% of global energy, and what’s holding it back→ The breakthrough behind “next-gen geothermal”→ How oil & gas infrastructure could be repurposed to scale geothermal globally→ Why geothermal might not compete with solar and wind, but complement them→ The rise of companies like Fervo, and what their success unlocks→ Europe vs US: heat vs power, and diverging market dynamics→ Why drilling, flow control, and steam conversion are the real bottlenecks→ The “super hot rock” opportunity, and how 400°C could 10x efficiency→ Why Underground Ventures is betting on picks & shovels, not power plants→ What’s still missing in the geothermal stack, and where founders should buildLet’s go underground! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Crazy Cheap RenewablesWhat if solar becomes the cheapest energy source on Earth?We’re joined by Andy Lubershane, Partner at Energy Impact Partners and author of Steel For Fuel. In this episode, we dive into the future of ultra-cheap solar, and unpack what it really takes to push renewables into a new cost paradigm that reshapes global energy systems.In our conversation, we covered:→ Why solar’s cost curve has been one of the biggest success stories of the energy transition→ What “crazy cheap” actually means (hint: ~50% cheaper than today)→ Why cost of capital is now solar’s biggest bottleneck→ The real constraints: land, transmission, and grid infrastructure→ Why efficiency gains (not cheaper panels) are the next big unlock→ The rise of tandem cells and perovskites as a potential step change→ Why installation and labor are now major cost drivers→ The surprising reality: solar costs have recently increased in some markets→ Why wind likely won’t reach the same scalability as solarThis is episode three of a five part series. Subscribe to receive every episode. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Energy Security Is Climate StrategyWhy geopolitics may become the strongest accelerator of Europe’s energy transition.We’re joined by James Gutman, strategist at The Carlyle Group and a longtime commodities and energy expert with experience spanning Ford, Goldman Sachs, and hedge funds.In this episode, we dive into the collision between geopolitics, energy markets, and climate innovation, and unpack what it really takes for Europe to build an energy system that is not just cleaner, but more resilient.This conversation starts with the current geopolitical moment, but quickly moves into Europe’s dependence on imported energy, the limits of the transition so far, and why security may now matter as much as sustainability in shaping the next wave of climate investment.In our conversation, we covered:→ Why disruption in global oil and gas trade changes the logic of the energy transition→ Why Europe remains vulnerable even as renewables scale→ The hard-to-replace fossil fuel use cases still shaping industry, aviation, and grid stability→ Why China’s clean energy buildout is as much about security as climate→ Why Europe may need to think less about first-best ideas, and more about scaling what works now→ How energy resilience could become the biggest driver of climate tech deploymentMy key takeaway: Energy security is no longer separate from climate strategy. Read more from James: You can’t print molecules.A crude awakening. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Fusion, and Other Fusion-Level BetsWhy the dream of limitless clean energy is still alive, and why the real question is cost, not physics.We’re joined by Andy Lubershane, Partner at Energy Impact Partners and author of Steel For Fuel. In this episode, we dive into nuclear fusion, the most ambitious energy technology on the table, and unpack what it really takes to turn a scientific breakthrough into a commercially viable power source.In our conversation, we covered:→ Why fusion has been “20 years away” for the last 60 to 80 years→ The physics behind the challenge: hot enough, dense enough, for long enough→ What Q = 1 really means — and why the headlines often get ahead of reality→ Why Andy still believes some companies may hit real net energy gain soon→ The difference between a scientific milestone and an investable commercial one→ Why fusion could be the ultimate energy prize, if it ever becomes affordableAndy breaks down the famous triple product at the heart of fusion: you need to create conditions that are extraordinarily hot, incredibly dense, and stable for long enough to generate more energy than you put in. That is easy to describe. It is brutally hard to do.We also unpack the gap between lab success and market success. A fusion reaction can be scientifically impressive and still be economically irrelevant. That distinction matters. A lot.And then there is the upside. If fusion works at scale, especially in a form that uses abundant fuel and avoids the safety, waste, and proliferation issues of fission, it starts to look like one of the biggest energy breakthroughs humanity could hope for.This is episode two of a five part series. Subscribe to receive every episode. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 The Case for a Nuclear RenaissanceWhy fission might be the most under appreciated climate bet of our time.We’re joined by Andy Lubershane, Partner at Energy Impact Partners and author of Steel For Fuel. In this first of five episode, we dive into nuclear fission as a “fusion-level bet”, and unpack what it really takes to build a scalable, secure, and low-emissions energy system beyond hydrocarbons.In our conversation, we covered:→ Why hydrocarbons are still so hard to replace (and what they do exceptionally well)→ The reality of nuclear safety, and why perception diverges from data→ Cost, timelines, and why nuclear failed to scale in the West→ China’s nuclear buildout, and what it teaches us→ The rise of SMRs and Gen IV reactors, hype vs. reality→ Why investing in nuclear is a “winner-takes-most” game→ A different way to invest: betting on project development, not reactor design→ Andy’s scorecard: cost, safety, emissions, speed, scalabilityThis is episode one of a five part series. Subscribe to receive every episode. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 The Methane Blind SpotWhy one of the most powerful climate levers stayed invisible, and what it takes to build around it.We’re joined by Abhi Desai, Solo GP at Desai Ventures (an Indian family office), an early-stage investor focused on deep tech solutions across methane detection, satellites, and climate infrastructure.In this episode, we dive into methane, the overlooked climate lever, and unpack what it really takes to build and invest in technologies that measure the invisible.In our conversation, we covered:→ Why methane is 80x more potent than CO₂ (short term), yet historically ignored→ The real challenge: you can’t fix what you can’t measure→ Satellites vs drones vs sensors, the stack of methane detection technologies→ Why “naming and shaming” isn’t enough, and what actionable data actually looks like→ The business case: lost gas = lost revenue (sometimes)→ Where carbon credits fit, and why they’re still evolving→ The core rule of climate VC: impact scales with revenue, not philanthropy→ How to diligence deep tech when you don’t fully understand the science→ Why collaborative due diligence might unlock more climate capital This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 The Invisible Problem Inside Every FactoryWhy advanced manufacturing is still wildly inefficient — and how real-time sensing could unlock the next wave of climate tech.We’re joined by Jared O’Leary, Co-founder of SirenOpt, a deep-tech company building real-time sensing systems for advanced manufacturing.In this episode, we dive into why even the world’s most advanced factories operate with massive hidden inefficiencies, and what it really takes to move toward autonomous, self-optimizing manufacturing for climate technologies like batteries and beyond.In our conversation, we covered:→ Why manufacturing is inherently probabilistic, and why every product exists on a distribution of quality→ The hidden cost of variability in battery factories, including massive scrap rates and conservative processes→ Why “98% yield” doesn’t actually mean what people think→ How missing data inside the manufacturing line creates huge blind spots→ Why real-time sensing is the missing layer for Industry 4.0 factories→ How cold plasma sensing works, and why it enables non-destructive measurement at millisecond speed→ Why better manufacturing could unlock next-generation batteries like solid-stateWithout the ability to manufacture advanced materials reliably, even the best lab breakthroughs never scale.📬 Reach out to Jared O’Leary: jared.oleary@sirenopt.com This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Obsession, Timing & the 50x DecisionWhat it really takes to back, and double down on, a climate breakout.We’re joined by Otto Birnbaum, Founding Partner at Revent, an early-stage fund backing companies at the intersection of climate, demographic, and technological change. Revent was an early investor in tem, which recently raised a $75M round. In this conversation, we unpack what happens inside a fund when a breakout company emerges, and how to think about follow-on strategy, ownership, timing, and conviction.This episode is a masterclass in early-stage venture mechanics.In our conversation, we covered:→ How to spot exceptional founders (obsession, clarity of vision, and relentless execution)→ Why Revent avoids the word “impact” (and what they focus on instead)→ The original investment thesis behind tem→ What a $200M+ valuation means for a $60M fund→ How much ownership early-stage funds really need→ When to double down, and when to de-risk at 50x→ Why timing might matter more than anything else→ Why 2026 belongs to AI, but climate infrastructure is far from dead→ “Looking left” when everyone looks rightOtto breaks down fund math transparently:10% ownership at a $300M valuation = ~$30M positionFor a $60M fund, that’s half the fund returned, at least on paperTrue breakout? When it returns the whole fund.We also explore:Why SPVs matter when you hit concentration limitsHow to construct angel-heavy cap tables with “superpowers”Why growth rate alone isn’t enough, margin and revenue stickiness matterAnd the brutal truth: timing can kill or make a company. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Removing CO₂ at 420 ppmIs direct air capture a distraction, or a necessity for net zero?We’re joined by Thor Gutierrez, Founder & CEO of Sirona Technologies, former Tesla engineer now building one of Europe’s most ambitious direct air capture (DAC) companies.Direct air capture fascinates as much as it divides.Some see it as essential for net zero.Others call it an expensive distraction.In this episode, we unpack what it really takes to scale DAC, economically, technically, and politically, and why starting now might be non-negotiable.In our conversation, we covered:→ Why we’ll need to remove ~10 gigatons per year→ Why DAC should likely represent only ~1–2% of climate capital→ Who’s actually buying carbon removal credits→ Why voluntary markets are the “bootloader” for compliance markets→ The Tesla playbook: speed of iteration > scale too early→ Why modular, containerized plants outperform mega-projects→ The real cost today: ~$800–900 per ton, and the roadmap to $250 by 2030→ Why buyers demand a visible cost curve before signing contracts→ Solid sorbents vs liquid solvents, and why modularity wins→ Energy reality: DAC only works with abundant clean power→ Why Kenya, the Middle East, and Norway make geographic sense→ The 90% removal efficiency debate, and what the LCA actually showsThor makes a clear argument:If you don’t believe in regulation, you don’t believe in solving climate.Voluntary markets fund learning.Compliance markets unlock scale. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com