Longriver Podcast

I spoke with Michael McGaughy, founder and CIO of Research Alpha, about what it means to invest where crisis, illiquidity, and institutional abandonment have driven valuations to generational lows. This was a timely chance to catch up on Michael’s thinking, how his portfolio has evolved, and what the last few years have taught him about investing through dislocation.Michael explains that his process is built around three things: quality people, structures that align minority and majority shareholders, and crisis-level valuations. We discuss why he spends so much time studying ownership, families, and incentives, how that work began in Indonesia, and why he believes the same lens applies across much of the world outside the Anglo-Saxon markets. Along the way, he shares examples from Pakistan, including a Toyota dealership (Indus Motors) and Lucky Cement, that illustrate how much of investing ultimately comes down to capital allocation and stewardship rather than sector narratives alone.We also explore the difference between foreign and local capital, why forced selling and ETF closures can create extraordinary opportunities, and how reforms in places like Nigeria can matter more than top-down commentators appreciate. The conversation closes with a candid reflection on Michael’s biggest lesson from recent years, namely the cost of selling too soon, and with a discussion of where he is currently finding value, including in Turkey.As always, this conversation is for general discussion only, not investment advice.

I spoke with Brian Mushonga and Will Thrower, two members of the three-person team at Caledon Investment Partners, about a recent memo they published titled ‘Hyperscaler Capex is Hitting Its Physical Limits’. This is the fourth time I’ve had Brian and Will on the podcast, and the memo was a great excuse to catch up on their thinking and to hear where they’re spending time.Their core argument is that the biggest constraint on the AI buildout is no longer software or even chips alone, but energy infrastructure. As demand for compute explodes, hyperscalers are running into hard bottlenecks in power generation, grid capacity, transformers, turbines, cooling systems, permitting, and skilled labour. Brian and Will explain why these constraints may prove more durable than many investors expect, and why the picks-and-shovels businesses exposed to them could continue to benefit even if the market starts to worry about cyclicality or overinvestment.We also discuss whether computing has entered a more asset-intensive era, how sustainable the current capex cycle really is, and what the strongest bear arguments against the AI boom get right and wrong. Along the way, we explore why Caledon prefers owning the bottlenecks around the hyperscalers rather than the hyperscalers themselves, how China’s electrification journey compares with America’s, and why efficiency gains in AI may increase demand rather than reduce it. The conversation concludes with a look at Caledon’s research process, which is built around mapping value chains end-to-end to identify the scarce assets that matter most.As always, this conversation is for general discussion only, not investment advice.

Enrique Becerra, a China-focused investor and former investment banker known as PandaWatch88, offers a sceptic-friendly guide to sizing China in portfolios. He discusses index distortions and valuation dispersion. He contrasts narrative risk with investable risk. He flags regulatory speed, short market history, and national-alignment risk as the key things to watch.

I spoke with Jevgenijs Kazanins about Wise plc, exploring his thesis that Wise has built the modern version of Citi: a global platform capable of serving customers locally, through a single sign-up, no matter where they are in the world. Actually, we spent a long time discussing my concerns about the company before I finally grasped what he was saying!Jev's Substack PopularFintech is a great place to stay abreast of what's happening in Fintech, particularly the convergence of payments companies into software and vice versa. I highly recommend it because the breadth of his coverage allows him to see the wood for the trees.Jev also posts regularly on X @jevgenijs.Disclaimer: our conversation is NOT financial advice. Don't rely on our opinions. Always do your own research!

I received great feedback for a podcast I recorded with my wife Lizzie in 2022 as I was setting up this company. To mark Longriver’s third anniversary, she kindly agreed to interview me again. We cover what I've learned as an entrepreneur, my investment process, what makes Longriver different and how exciting it is when fellow investors and business analysts reach out.I hope you enjoy our conversation.

I spoke with analyst TP Huang about BYD, exploring his writing and analysis of the company, electrification and China's new industrial revolution. If you are interested in these topics, I highly recommend you read TP's Substack. He excels in explaining the engineering and technical aspects which make electrification and BYD's rapid progress possible.TP also posts regularly on X (@tphuang).

I spoke with Eric Markowitz, Partner and Director of Research at Nightview Capital, about an essay he published this year titled, “How a brush with death shaped my long game” (link). We dive straight into the details of a health crisis which shook Eric’s world in early 2023 (link) and then have an open-ended conversation about what he’s taken from it as a husband, father, friend and investor. I highly recommend you read Eric's essay before you listen to (or read) our conversation. The context will help and you will get to enjoy Eric’s wonderful skill as a writer. If you want more, you can follow Eric on X (@EricMarkowitz) or at Big Think (link).

I spoke with Brian Mushonga and James Hull, co-Founders of the Caledon Energy Transition Fund, about their backgrounds, their partnership and their investment strategy. We used Vertiv Holdings as a case study, touching on its history and development into one of the world’s leading power and thermal management suppliers to the data centre; its Chairman and his track record at Honeywell; its sales composition; and its role as a key supplier to the ongoing AI capex boom. Finally, we discussed how Brian and James approach valuing cyclical stocks; how they overcome anchoring bias; and what could kill the boom. Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

I spoke with Daye Deng (邓达业), author of the East Asia Stock Insights substack, about the Chinese sportswear industry and two of its leading players, Anta and Li Ning. We began with Daye's background as a Chinese person growing up in Japan and then Canada; his career as a buyside investor; and why he's now devoting his time to companies in East Asia. We then discussed the trends driving Chinese consumers' interest in sportswear; what makes sportswear companies good businesses; the rise and travails of China's homegrown sportswear companies; Li Ning and Anta's origin stories; Anta's success with a multi-brand strategy; the two companies distinct cultures; their corporate governance issues; the persistence of fierce inventory cycles in the Chinese market; and Anta's investment in Amer Sports, a holding company which owns Arc'teryx, Salomon, Wilson and other brands. Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.

My guest is Jesus Rodriguez, author of the Dungeon Investing substack, where he writes about miniatures, video games, tabletop games, comics, RPGs and investing. In this conversation, we discuss Games Workshop, owner, designer and manufacturer of the Warhammer and Warhammer 40K range of miniatures. Jesús walks us through the company's rise-fall-and-rebirth to explain how its history shaped its culture. We then explore the trade-offs inherent in GW's hype-driven business model; the operational complexity and diseconomies of scale this creates; management's slow embrace of IP content; and the company's potential for growth. If you'd like to read more of Jesús' work, I highly recommend starting here: Analysis of Games Workshop (2017) Games Workshop: A look into the future (2023) Longriver Investment Partners Limited (“Longriver”) is licensed with the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to provide Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities in Hong Kong to Professional Investors only. Investment involves risk. This podcast is for informational purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. It does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or services. Longriver makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content.