The Dividend Cafe

If there is one thing that animates me it is the application of real-life economics to investing. I have always been obsessed with economics – both theory and application – but it is in more recent years that I have really found it a calling to synthesize the foundational truths of economics to financial markets. And truth be told, that calling transcends the applications of economic theory to financial markets. I believe properly understood economics has profound implications for all aspects of human living. My extra-curricular endeavors in economics (the book I wrote last year, the class I teach at the high school I co-founded) are all extensions of this passion I have for a free and virtuous society. But yes, applying these things to financial markets is my real passion, and the inability and disinterest the financial advice community has for applying economic principles to markets is a constant source of irritation. Today’s Dividend Cafe is about the labor market – the state of jobs in America. For 99% of the media and even economic analysts these days this is an econometric subject. In other words, it is a data point that provides an input to a spreadsheet, and from there carries some numerical relevance to another input (i.e. if wages are here or unemployment is here, then consumer spending is possibly going to be here, etc.). Worse, it is often just a mere political data point, perhaps an even more imbecilic understanding of work than even reducing it to an economic data point. But economics is the study of human action around the allocation of scarce resources. Our understanding of what is happening and not happening in the world of work will be improved to see it through the lens of the human person. Political and econometric reductions will tell us almost nothing, and in fact, may tell us things that aren’t true at all. Investors and actors in financial markets need a fuller understanding of current realities in American labor. To that end, we work … (see what I did there). So jump on into the Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this market-shortened week I thought a shorter Dividend Cafe may be appropriate, especially as we prepare for a long weekend and the Easter holiday. More on that below … And not only do I think I controlled the length of this week’s Dividend Cafe (within reason), I also took advantage of the week to dive into a topic that is almost entirely avoided by the media and investing public. I can’t really explain why we mostly ignore private equity and private credit when we discuss financial markets. I understand public stock markets have a certain sensationalism to them, not to mention clear pricing visibility that facilitates a lot of noise. But the private markets are just as much the real economy as public markets, and if the heart of free enterprise is where there is human action, I assure you private markets are deep into the capture of human activity (for good or for bad). But it is not enough to “talk” about private equity and private debt as if they are either “good” or “bad” investments. There is a complexity here that requires a bit of unpacking, and the unpacking of complexity is the business of the Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

From the seat of a person who dispenses financial advice for a living, one could be forgiven for believing there must have been a time in the recent past that was quite idyllic. Why? The constant chorus of those concerned about “new instability” or “these difficult times” or “all this uncertainty” all implies one thing: That there must have been a time where stability and certainty ruled the roost. Today we are going to do a little history lesson, and by the end we’ll draw a few conclusions. The point will not to be wrap current economic or political circumstances in a pretty bow – but rather, to contrast the present to the past with history and logic. The conclusions will either concern you or encourage you. But the information will be informative. So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I love the topic of this week’s Dividend Cafe. I believe one of the most powerful people in global finance gave me the chance to address a topic today that desperately needs to be addressed. And through this topic we have profound takeaways to inform our understanding of economics, and to apply such understanding to the emphases we put in our portfolios. I will leave the introduction there, and hopefully with enough suspense to push you into the Dividend Cafe. This is important stuff. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We all know that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the biggest story of 2022 thus far, not just for markets but for the entire news cycle. Ten minutes do not go by on the news without hearing the word “Russia” or “Ukraine” – for good reason (there is a war going on, you know). And there are other countries that do not exactly hide in the background, either. China is never far from our dialogue, both because of their role in the COVID pandemic that swept the globe in 2020 and because of their sheer size as an economic powerhouse. In fact, U.S.-China relations may be the most talked about geopolitical story of the last ten years (also for good reason). But there is another country that is rarely discussed these days, and perhaps offers as many economic implications as Russia, Ukraine, and China. And when I say economic implications, I mean the full portfolio of categories – geopolitical, financial markets, and macroeconomic. And that country is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I hope you will find this to be a special Dividend Cafe. No, this week’s Dividend Cafe doesn’t dare to bring the vast military sophistication of people who tweet all day long to you, but maybe we do one better. We don’t talk about Russia/Ukraine at all. Actually there is some true connectivity between much of what I discuss today and how it interacts with current events, but at the core of the present market story is the challenge of growth. Military conflicts, elevated uncertainty, spikes in commodity prices, and other undesirables do not help the growth story. But they are peripheral pieces to the story, not the story itself. And today in the Dividend Cafe we are going to talk about growth, and all we are doing to make sure we never get enough of exactly what we need. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The fog of war continues in Ukraine with the entire world watching. The path to some immediate resolution has mostly closed, and expectations are for a complicated and extended process. Prayers are for minimal bloodshed and certainly for a limited scope to where the conflict goes. But few analysts are able to formulate a scenario where this ends well. The dollar is rallying. The Euro is collapsing. Oil is skyrocketing. U.S. equity markets are experiencing significant gyrations up and down day by day. I believe those five sentences summarize the five most important themes in financial markets right now (the collapse of the ruble and the Russian equity markets does not make the list, because who cares). I could certainly provide commentary today on the history of how markets have responded to various geopolitical distresses over the years, and maybe that will be needed in the weeks to come. But I believe longtime readers of Dividend Cafe know that I believe a properly constructed asset allocation is supposed to account for the inevitability of, well, distress. It could be geopolitical, or medical, or monetary, or economic, but distress is not new – only the specific reasons for the various particular distresses that come at different times. Today we are going to look at the reality of addressing distress in one’s portfolio through asset allocation – what it means in the current moment, how some elements of this have changed, and why it hasn’t stopped mattering. I wouldn’t say this is a specifically Ukraine-focused Dividend Cafe, but I would say that it may feel like it if it is understood correctly. We hold principles for the purpose of applying them during times of distress. The Ukraine event is a time of distress. Today’s Dividend Cafe is about the principles that exist before, during, and after such. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I have pretty much written each Friday’s Dividend Cafe on the Friday morning of the day you receive it every single week for over a year now. If there is an exception to that over the last 12+ months I do not remember it. I used to write the Dividend Cafe in bits and pieces throughout the week and then “pull it all together” on Friday mornings, but a little over a year ago I changed my approach and I have been happy with the results. Well, this week taking advantage of the Monday holiday and some extra peace and quiet in the very early morning hours of a day that the market was closed, I wrote what would maybe be half of a Dividend Cafe on the subject of capital, liquidity, and interest rates. I loved where it was going and felt it was a good base for a needed Dividend Cafe on a crucial subject at this point in time. And yet, here I am on a Friday morning, with images of Russian rockets striking all over the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on my television set, and I am not even opening the draft of that work from Monday morning. Yes, I will be able to use it next week (or at some future date), but this is certainly one of those rare weeks where Dividend Cafe warrants a nod to current events. Markets have experienced volatility in the build-up to events of this week and in the events themselves, though I would argue it has been much less volatile than I would have expected. The mere presence of market volatility is not the reason to devote a Dividend Cafe to this week’s subject. I don’t much care about market volatility other than the frustration I feel when we don’t get enough of it. So welcome to a Dividend Cafe devoted to Russia/Ukraine, and may your investor knowledge and appreciation of global affairs grow as a result. To that end we work. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

There was plenty of talk about Russia/Ukraine in DC Today this week as well in the unreliable news cycle, and there really isn’t any “new news” to report. I am not sure we will be talking about Russia/Ukraine in six months, but I am very sure we will be talking about inflation, the Fed, and interest rates in six months. I want to do my best to make those six months (and more) of conversations be as worthwhile as possible. The Dividend Cafe is here to help that effort. We are going to look at what some of the right questions are to ask today and let it go from there. I believe this discussion will give you some better information then you might find elsewhere, but it also puts me out on a limb with some actual forecasts. The very concept of forecasting bothers me, usually because those who do it are charlatans and grifters. But I have nothing to gain in these forecasts; rather I am trying to point us towards a context and understanding that will likely not prove exactly right in the details, but I think more helpful than thinking about 2021’s battles during 2023’s war. Jump on in to the Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com