The Dividend Cafe

The market closed the shortened holiday week up over 800 points for the week, with the market up almost 100 points today. Futures were really flat last night, and at 4:30am Eastern this morning were up over 200 points. The jobs report came at 8:30am ET and futures added on another 200 points. Markets were up 400 points at one point and moved up and down throughout the day before selling off substantially in the final 30-45 minutes of trading (not a surprise at all going into the long holiday weekend). Regarding that jobs report, the big bullish news was that 4.8 million jobs were added back in June, about 1.6 million more than the 3.2 million consensus expectation. I want to reiterate – the fact that the “experts” continue to get economic projected data so wrong is not so much that they are incompetent as that this is all very, very hard – and not based on solid historical precedents. That said, I would recommend the pundits moderate their predictions with greater humility, but again, this is uncharted territory. 2.1 million jobs in leisure and hospitality were brought back. This makes it all the more important that policymakers not capitulate to the panic mob and allow a safe and sensible re-opening to continue. More importantly, it does show a continued trend that job losses were initially classified as temporary, are indeed proving to be temporary. Now, permanent job losses were up 500,000, and that is a cause for concern. The percentage of the unemployment we have classified as “temporary” as gone from 78% to 59%, yet that is largely because a good portion of those temporarily unemployed people have been hired back. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This is the audio replay of National Call Market Outlook from TBG CIO - David L. Bahnsen. With Host Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates. Discussed is the impact of increased COVID cases in certain states on markets, and will attempt to evaluate the latest economic and investment developments, and what we are anticipating as we officially enter the second half of the year. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

• Some clarification on COVID and the current media coverage • How the result of “financialization” is to ignore capital investment, and how starving the economy of capital spending deprives it of future productivity • The stress of the stress tests! • The lost decade of gold is a powerful antidote to the strange argument that central bank abuses are bullish for gold. If the last decade wasn’t the golden era of central bank libertinism, I don’t know what was. And yet gold is just now trying to get back within striking distance of where it was ten years ago?? • A refresher on our friend, Illiquidity, and why behavioral finance drives the return premium in private market assets – a section that should get its own dedicated Dividend Cafe! • How good/bad is the economic “recovery” going? • And the secret sauce on how politics works in conjunction with markets … what we expect out of the next few months as various political scenarios play themselves out • The Chart of the Week looks at the three stages of the COVID era … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures last night really hugged around the flat line non-stop from 3pm pacific until 9pm or so when I stopped checking.  At 3am this morning they were still flat, and throughout the morning going into the market open they moved a tad lower.  The Dow got down as much as 200 points, gyrated around most of the day up and down, and then rallied the final hour of trading to close up 300 points. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market futures were pretty much flat all of last evening, and I awoke at 3:15am to a down 250 level. By the open, futures were pointing to down ~700. It opened there, got as down as -850, and closed down 700 points on the day. COVID case growth and coverage of it is a fine explanation for market volatility today, but again the performance in structured credit today – mortgages, loans, etc. – paints a different picture. Threats of tariffs with Europe probably did not help, and neither did ongoing polls showing Biden’s lead over Trump continuing to grow. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Well this was one of the crazier 24 hours in quite some time, more so for what happened last night than today. Futures opened up about 100 points last night, and slowly inched higher for the first couple hours into the evening. Around 6:30pm pacific/9:30pm eastern, my devices starting blowing up that futures had collapsed 400 points (so a net swing of over 500 points) after “White House advisor, Pete Navarro, announced that the phase one China trade deal was over.” Well, it turns out, not for the first time, Navarro was speaking hyperbolically. Within 30 minutes futures came roaring back to even. President Trump took to the airwaves to say that the trade deal is “fully intact.” I decided to watch the replay of Navarro’s Fox interview, and it was rather obvious that it was a long-winded question and the answer was disconnected from that portion of the question. Regardless, by 3:30am this morning futures were up 300 points. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures were pointing down as much as ~300 points Sunday night (netted for fair value), though that number improved as the night went along. By 3:15am this morning they were pointing to a flat market open. The market traded down ~200 points early and closed up over 150 points, in a 400-point range today … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

• There is a solution of the problem of always having a reason to sell, and always having a reason to buy: It is – always having a plan … • The nation’s debt is talked about as much any topic in the political/economic sphere, but rarely talked about with any real practical sense of what the eventual possible outcomes actually look like. Today we provide five crystalized options for what eventually comes of America’s national debt. This is crucially important for people who care about their kids and grandkids, and people who don’t. • The “financialization” of the American economy is happening right before our eyes, and it is a major consequence of the monetary regime in which we live. It needs to be understood – the good, bad, and ugly. • Why inflationary efforts are creating more deflation – an economic primer you will love, and your college professors never gave (or got themselves) • Proof that dividend growth requires active management, and that passively trying to get it will ensure you lose it • Small-cap investing is very promising coming out of recessions, and if you think dividend growth needs active management, you should see the data in small-cap! • The economy is picking back up – but wow does it have a lot of work to do. Check out the updated data from air travel, restaurant reservations, retail shopping, and more. And then, check out what really, really matters – business investment. Some investors are focusing on mall traffic in Q2 of 2020. We are focusing on industrial production in Q1 of 2021. • The Chart of the Week tells you why the market keeps embarrassing not just bears, but those who don’t understand how markets work • And in Politics & Money, look at worst news imaginable for President Trump, and the best news imaginable … all at once. It’s an action packed Dividend Cafe, so jump on in … There is no U.S. Open to watch, so you really have no excuse. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com