POMEPS Middle East Political Science Podcast

André Bank, a senior research fellow at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), talks about how Jordan is dealing with the influx of Syrian refugees by looking at how Jordanians perceive the Syrian crisis and how it shapes their political economies. "Jordan is doing a relatively good job with the Syrian refugees when compared to Lebanon or northern Iraq." However, Banks says, "The Jordanian state still upholds the image that the Syrians ultimately will return....though it seems as though the Syrians will be there for the longterm, so solutions will need to be found." "We've visited schools and seen some resentment from Jordanians— the school teachers now have to teach double shifts— it's usually the case that Jordanian kids go in the morning and Syrian kids go in the afternoon for three hours — if the go at all. Roughly half of Syrian kids go to Jordanian schools." This resentment has bonded Jordanians of different heritage. "When you look at this historically, in the mid-2000s, with an influx of Iraqis you had similar tendencies [to today, with Syrian refugees]. Palestinian-Jordanians and Jordanian-Jordanians bonded against the Iraqis. It seems whenever a new group of refugees comes to a place like Jordan, you have some of these discourses against them. But, in a country like Jordan, these exclusionary discourses remain verbal and almost never leave to direct violent action."

We hear from Wendy Pearlman, an associate professor in the department of political science at Northwestern University. Pearlman has carried out open-ended interviews with displaced Syrians since 2012. "Like many people watching the Syrian uprising from afar, I was fascinated of the individual-level experience of what this must have been like for Syrians who went out into the streets, what drove them to do so, what drove them to stay. How people were experiencing protest, how people were experiencing violence. How people ultimately fled the country as refugees. I decided there was no better way to understand that lived experience— the personal experience of dramatic political phases— than to get to individuals themselves and ask them to tell me their stories." "For the most part, it's not that the people are telling the same anecdote. They're telling very different anecdotes of their own personal experiences. They'll tell personal stories of their childhood under Assad's Syria, and when they went to their first demonstration and what it was like. They'll tell different stories how it felt to live under shelling. But I see very similar themes coming out of those anecdotes that connect them all." Pearlman and Lynch also discuss the ethics of conducting fieldwork with people in vulnerable situations. You have to get concent, but there's an added level, too. There have been times when people have agreed to speak with me, but I could tell they really didn't want to....it's wise at that point as an interviewer to pull back. Technically, that person has consented to an interview du jour; de facto, that person is being put in an uncomfortable position and doesn't really want to talk? At that point, I think you say, 'Thank you very much,' and get out— to not cause that person harm."

On this week's POMEPS Conversation podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Bassel Salloukh, an associate professor of political science at the Social Sciences Department at Lebanese American University. "Many countries are becoming like Lebanon where people start thinking of sectarian/tribal/ethnic divisions and identities as primordial. And then the only way to get out of the conflict is through the institutionalization of these identities into a new, power-sharing pact. But what that does is to freeze these identities and make it very difficult to move away from." "At the end of the day, the major problem is that people start looking at these identities as primordial. And they start behaving as if these identities have always been with us as part of these ancient hatreds. It becomes very difficult to come up with a counter-narrative."

On this week's POMEPS Conversation podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Daniel Corstange, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. Corstange talks about his current research, which focuses on gathering data from Syrian refugees. "You can think of a lot of different stories we tell ourselves about why there's a war going on. And it doesn't seem to be the case that any of them are the true story." "So we're trying to understand why people think this is happening. There are actually very interesting patterns about why people think one thing versus another thing." "This is an existential crisis for a lot of people. It's completely destroyed their lives at home. They are picking up the pieces elsewhere — sometimes they haven't even been able to pick up the pieces. But it's not the case that they've managed to get across the border and they can shut off what's happening in the civil war."

On this week's POMEPS Conversation podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Pete Moore about the political economy and refugees in Jordan. Moore is an associate professor of political science and director of graduate studies in the Department of Political Science at Case Western University. Looking at how past events influence current relationships, Moore says, "What we see today in terms of the U.S. role in Jordan was incubated in the early 80s vis-à-vis the Iran-Iraq war." By the 1990s, "Jordan was caught between the demands of the U.S. regarding sanctions, but is stuck with of a transport sector and industrial sector that was wedded to Iraq and does not want to see that relationship weaken." Moore says, "The regime wanted to hold on to those linkages...after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, those relationships will be looked at less in an economic realm and more in the security realm." "It takes the monarchy a long time, but essentially they vote to let die that industry and transport sector. And that's one of the reasons for Jordan's highest unemployment rate in the region."

On this week's POMEPS Conversation Podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Sune Haugbølle. Haugbølle is an associate professor at Roskilde University, and much of his research focuses on Leftist movements in the Middle East. "Before the Arab uprisings, I had a sense for a long time that there's a real gap in the historiography of the modern Middle East. Leftists groups,"Haugbølle says, "Have really been understudied. There's a lot we don't know about them— and I think that lack of knowledge came from the notion that somehow the left had ceased to be important." "I'm trying to see what the historical memory of failures and trasitions of the Left in the last couple of decades means today for the Leftist activitists, militants, intellectuals today," says Haugbølle. "The history of the Arab Left is global." In today's world, Haugbølle argues, "The new Left is a fragmented field of smaller movements. It's by definition a vast array of influences." "Obviously the Middle East is not in the throes of the American homogeneity that it used to be years ago. And they're trying to find their feet in that." The Left must question of imperialism, especially with the conflict in Syria, says Haugbølle. "We re-conceptualize the struggle in this confused, post-revolutionary period that we're in. That comes for the fore in the question of: Syria. Do you see the Russian intervention as a sort of protection of a popular regime with legitimacy, a people's army that needs to be protected from America's attempt to smash it? Or do you see that equally as imperialism? Most of the international socialists have taken the line that the Russian intervention is also a form of imperialism. You get splits over that." "There's an intellectual history and a political history. There's so much we don't know. There's so many achieves people haven't looked at. Journals people haven't read yet," says Haugbølle.

On this week's POMEPS Conversation podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Vickie Langohr about public sexual harassment faced by women in Egypt and the rest of the Middle East. Langohr is an associate professor at the College of the Holy Cross, focusing on Middle East politics, nationalism and democratization. "Egyptians will often tell you that several decades ago, [sexual harrasment] was not something that was happening a lot. But we have data from 2008 — before the revolution — that shows pretty close to the same number of women polled saying they experienced harassment even on a daily basis." "Public sexual harassment has become an issue of 20 or 30-somethings is because they're in public more, particularly in protests. I do think there is a generational angle to it." Langohr said a lot of sexual harassment happens on crowded subways. "Any time there's mass crowding on public transit, sexual harassment increases." Langohr spoke with young Egyptians about their political involvement. "In the interviews I've done with many members of these groups...many would say 'I never even dreamed anybody but Mubarak could be in power.' Not because they liked him, but because the political horizon of the imaginary was not there." While Egypt has tightened its laws on protesting in public, Langohr says that activism is still happening. "Even though activists can't work in the streets anymore, there has been a spread into the institutions, like Cairo University." Still, even after a 2014 amendment that increased penalties and made it slightly easier to prosecute, "Many women don't want to bring charges because, unfortunately, people in their family believe that if they've been harassed, they must have brought it on themselves in some way." "So there's a lot that remains to be done."

On this week's POMEPS podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Reinoud Leenders about the origins of the Syrian conflict. Leenders is a reader in the Department of War Studies at King's College London. "In the beginning, it was a question of who would move first, and where." Leenders says. "Why it happened in certain places and not others, it is because of local characteristics." Aleppo, Leenders says, held back. "It was a very conservative, middle class [place] that felt it was too much to get involved and put a stop on mobilization initially." "In hindsight, lots of people have said it was a mistake of the [Syrian] regime to have applied such vast levels of repression," Leenders said. "But I think that, beyond moral considerations, I don't think the repression as such was a mistake...The brutality of the regime touched on some really sensitive registers, include dignity and honor of women." Even as Leenders's research focuses on the parsing out the conflict through the lens of two narratives, "We are five years down the road, and every day the conflict goes on, I get more questions than answers."

Charles Kurzman speaks with Marc Lynch about how past failed mobilizations can explain the challenges facing the Middle East after the 2011 uprisings. Kurzman is a professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and co-director of the Carolina Center for the Study of the Middle East and Muslim Civilizations. "There's the sense of disillusionment when things don't turn out well. The hopes and dreams that come crumbling down when the new institutions turn out not what you thought they ought to be. We saw this in Iran, when a huge portion of the population that was so active in bringing down the shah, then feels that their revolution was hijacked. This new Islamic Republic doesn't represent what they meant at all. We see it again after the uprisings of the Arab Spring; huge portions of the populations saying, 'No, no. This isn't what we wanted.'"

Saudi Arabia is facing challenges: the global oil slump, the future of the GCC's collective stability and its intervention in Yemen. "Yemen was the place they decided to strike back," Greg Gause tells Marc Lynch in this latest POMEPS podcast. "I think both because they've always seen it as their backyard — part of their special preserve — where they were least likely to directly confront the Iranians. You do something like they're doing in Syria, and you're fighting the Iranians directly." There are signs, Gause says, that an end may be in sight. "The fact there was a Houthi delegation in Riyadh in April show that those in charge are looking for an exit ramp." Saudi Arabia's economic challenges lie beyond low oil prices. "The Saudi private sector has been a job creating machine in the last decade. It's just that almost all of those jobs have gone to foreigners...the real core of this how do you make it so Saudi private sector hire more Saudis without destroying the business model they've created. I don't see that in vision 2030." Gause says he believes the stability of Saudi regime is sound. "Fiscal crisis can create regime crisis." But Gause notes, "I don't see the kinds of fissues in the ruling family that could lead to serious problems in Saudi Arabia." Back in the 1980s and 90s, Saudi Arabia "ran their debt up to a 100% of GDP. There's no indication the Saudis won't be able to sell their government bonds. I think they actually have plenty of room to put off fiscal crisis." Looking beyond Saudi to its neighbors, "when things are really serious, the GCC comes together." But, Gause warns, "It would be a mistake for us to overestimate the policy coherence of the GCC, even now." F. Gregory Gause, III is the John H. Lindsey ’44 Chair, Professor of International Affairs and Head of the International Affairs Department at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University.