Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Stocks surged on the last trading day of the month, but it was still the worst January for the Nasdaq since 2008. According to Mark Ritchie, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, we’re probably not going to see the type of V-shaped recovery that we saw in March 2020. Although last Monday marked a potential momentum low, “per my work,” notes Ritchie, “we are already in a cyclical bear market.” Earnings have been mixed so far, and investors are still focused on the Federal Reserve and other central banks as they prepare to fight inflation. Ritchie joins Maggie Lake to talk about financial markets and what’s changed early 2022. And Weston Nakamura joins to talk about the impact of China going silent ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GtgoS5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Brad Snyder and Weston Nakamura, a trucker and a trader, are back with Exchanging Lanes to challenge conventional macro data analysis, using real-world, real-time, on-the-ground observations and applying differentiated takeaways. In this episode, Weston and Brad look ahead and explore where disinflation or deflation risk may arise with a focus on inventories. They see massive overcapacity of warehousing in the longer term and offer a non-consensus angle for a potential data misread in consumption trends and inflation drivers for the immediate term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Pippa Malmgren, who served as Special Assistant to the President of the United States for Economic Policy under George W. Bush, says financial markets are likely to shrug off military conflict in Ukraine because it probably won’t resemble traditional warfare. Malmgren tells Real Vision managing editor Samuel Burke that the new “quantitative easing” is military spending in cyberspace. Recorded on January 25, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A favorite Federal Reserve inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures index, measured 4.9% year over year for December. It hasn’t been that hot since September 1983. And the employment cost index was up an annualized 4% during the fourth quarter of 2021, an all-time high for that metric. Meanwhile, talk on the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine front has turned to economic sanctions, which, while short of “hot” war, pose their own set of challenges to people on the ground. Yields backed up and equities rallied on all the news. Jim Bianco, founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to sort out an eventful Friday. And Weston Nakamura drops in to share his thoughts following an equally dramatic week in China. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/34ivKep Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Commerce Department reported the fastest annualized rate of U.S. gross domestic product growth since 1984 for the fourth quarter of 2021. But it’s hard to call this “Morning in America.” Investors and central bankers are still fixed on inflation and the coming tightening cycle, as other data suggest continuing supply-chain problems and omicron concerns linger. Earnings have been mixed, with Apple Inc. due to report at 5:00 p.m. ET today. Major equity indexes reflected the mixed picture, rising through midday but slipping into the red ahead of the close. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss strategy and tactics against a murky backdrop. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ABav3R Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Open Market Committee said today “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.” And it issued a separate statement on “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet,” even as asset purchases continue. Stocks were already having their best day of 2022 ahead of this afternoon’s releases, and equity indexes continued to rally post-2:00 p.m. ET. The Fed finds itself in uncharted territory, and its various statements reflect the fact that there is no roadmap for combating inflation while balancing serious risks to growth – among them geopolitical tensions that continue to drive crude oil higher as well as an ongoing pandemic. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to break down one of the most highly anticipated FOMC meetings in recent times. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KLKALp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. appears to be ramping up its support of NATO forces to counter Russia’s threat to Ukraine. And, after selling off along with all risk assets yesterday, crude oil prices are once again rising. Other commodities produced in the Baltics, such as natural gas as well as wheat and corn, are also sensitive to geopolitical tension. This comes as the Federal Reserve opens a two-day meeting during which the central bank is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since late 2018. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is up more than 3% during the last 24 hours, as the world’s No. 1 cryptocurrency seems to have decoupled from equities, at least in the very short term. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to sort through a murky macro environment and to talk about his current trading book. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3H0wMKE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Biden administration is preparing to deploy troops and equipment to Eastern Europe and the Baltics to counter Russia’s threat to Ukraine, as UK officials suggest Moscow aims to install a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv. Stocks all over the world are tumbling, again, and Bitcoin has breached key technical levels. And there’s real concern about European natural gas supplies. “Risk on” for Putin means “risk off” for investors. Weston Nakamura is here to discuss the state of play with Ash Bennington. Weston also drops a compelling pair trade that could be a decent hedge against both geopolitics and central bankers. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/32rm6FR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Cryptocurrencies are crashing, stocks are tanking, bonds are rallying, and central banks are diverging. That all spells “risk off,” as the pandemic rally has surely come to an end. Is there an “all clear” moment coming? When should we prepare to buy this dip? Raoul Pal joins the conversation for an update on what’s happening in the crypto space. And Maggie Lake talks with Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, about the view from 30,000 feet and what it means for risk assets, including Bitcoin, Netflix, and others that benefited from across-the-board accommodative monetary policy over the past couple years. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KwXMDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The commodity “super cycle” chorus will only get louder with crude oil touching eight-year highs, nickel reaching levels not seen in a decade, and even gold looking like a compelling trade right now. Mixed U.S. economic data probably won’t alter the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy. But China’s central bank is clearly in easing mode. Combined with constrained supply across the complex, and that’s fuel enough for commodities firmly linked to the Middle Kingdom’s economy. Tony Greer talks with Maggie Lake about what’s happening with commodities amid a murky global outlook, and joins the conversation to discuss the impact of recent moves by the People’s Bank of China. Questions for Tony? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/33VU4CE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices