Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Yesterday, Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy aggressively to fight inflation, noting that a 50-basis-point hike is on the table for the May Federal Open Market Committee meeting. U.S. stocks, still processing the Fed’s hawkish pivot, are well in the red Friday, with the major equity indexes all down nearly 2%. According to Jared Dillian, “The curve will continue to flatten in such fashion until 2s are at 3% and 10s are at 2% (or thereabouts) and we will have a massively inverted curve at the end of this.” Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, thinks we’re headed for recession. He joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the bond market, central banking, and the economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3s6Xpsb Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. dollar climbed to a fresh two-decade peak to the Japanese yen on Wednesday, this latest move catalyzed by Federal Reserve officials pushing for more aggressive interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan continues to defend its ultra-accommodative policy. Policymakers there believe inflation is indeed transitory and that capping interest rates remains the wise course. But this divergence is creating unprecedented tension in the bond and forex markets. According to Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, “The bond market, the banking system, and the financial system are not really designed to have the entire bond market lose 10% of its value in four months. Every other time we’ve seen this we have run into problems.” Bianco joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the Japanese yen’s systemic significance, the Fed’s fight against inflation, and the trajectory of the U.S. and the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Mn1Syk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is the Bank of Japan brewing up a Netflix-blockbuster-level disaster with its dogged adherence to “yield curve control”? Is Netflix itself a blockbuster-level disaster with its declining subscriber numbers? The U.S. dollar hit a 20-year high against the Japanese yen, as the Bank of Japan announced it would buy an unlimited amount of fixed-rate 10-year Japanese government bonds at 0.25% from April 21 through April 26. And shares of the pandemic-era stock market darling plunged 37% today after management reported a 200,000 decline in paying customers during its most recent quarter. The BoJ is desperate to hold interest rates down as other global central banks push for tighter monetary conditions. Netflix is desperate to boost revenue growth; it’ll crack down on password-sharing and consider a lower-priced ad-supported tier. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura to talk about Japan, Netflix, and markets in general on today’s Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vwOfG3 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The major U.S. equity indexes were all up more than 1% late in Monday’s regular trading session, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite leading the way with a 1.85% gain. Stocks today seem to reflect a strong start to earnings reporting season. According to Bloomberg, 38 of the 48 S&P 500 components that have reported so far have posted positive surprises. Earlier in the day, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched 2.93%, a level the benchmark rate hasn’t seen since 2018, as bond investors continue to price in the impact of Federal Reserve efforts to fight inflation. U.S. natural gas prices eased off after hitting 13-year highs ahead of an unusual April snowstorm in the Northeast. Crude oil slid nearly 5% on Tuesday, as the International Monetary Fund cut its 2022 and 2023 global growth forecasts. And broader concerns about global resource constraints amid the war in Eastern Europe linger. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the stock market rally, commodities, energy, and inflation, and the problem the Federal Reserve faces in trying to stabilize prices without triggering a recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vsVH5c. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“The Fed has been in the business of suppressing volatility in financial assets for most of the post-Global Financial Crisis period,” notes Bill Zox, “but they are out of that business now.” According to Zox, co-portfolio manager at Brandywine Capital, tighter financial conditions to contain inflation mean wider credit spreads and lower equity prices. Zox joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about opportunities for investors in the high-yield bond market amid unprecedented uncertainty at the macro level. War in Eastern Europe has only added to global inflationary pressures. But close to 20% of high-yield is in energy companies and other commodities producers that benefit from an inflationary environment. And inflation is good for credit quality, as the value of fixed-rate debt declines and principal and interest payments are made in inflated dollars. As Zox explains, high-yield can be hit particularly hard by volatility and illiquidity. But, as long as you can hold through these periods, “this is what creates the long-term opportunity.” Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MexfLo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why did global equities stage their biggest rally since November 2020 upon the official launch of a monetary tightening cycle at the March 2022 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee? Why was this decisive risk-on move in stocks led by the tech sector, as front-end bond yields surged, curves collapsed, and dot plots adjusted? And why are the vast majority of market commentators confused, with no consensus explanation forming for this indiscriminate demand for shares as the Fed finally moves off the zero bound? Weston Nakamura explains the sustained upside in global equity markets in the aftermath of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Award-winning hedge fund manager and market commentator, Hugh Hendry, joins Maggie to break down his fascinating career, what he learned from 17th century rice traders, and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The average 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. surged past 5% for the first time since 2011 this week, up from 4.72% last week, as the market continues to price in an aggressive monetary tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve. Inflation remains the dominant factor for policy makers, investors, and consumers. In fact, as Jared Dillian notes, it’s time to think about the unthinkable: hyperinflation. Policy choices have fed into structural factors to create an upward producer and consumer price spiral that the Fed and other central banks will be hard-pressed to control. Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the macro picture, gold, and why Elon Musk would be good for Twitter. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/37P5H0u Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report on the producer price index for March showed the biggest month-over-month and year-over-year gains on record, 1.4% and 11.2%, respectively, as inflation continues to dominate the discourse. The PPI data follow the hottest consumer price index reading in 40 years, 8.5%. As the Federal Reserve continues to try to convince markets and consumers it’s serious about tightening monetary conditions and reining in spiraling prices, policymakers in China and Japan press on with accommodation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the Japanese yen’s role in the global financial system and the worrying signals he’s seeing in forex markets. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Fed, markets, and inflation as we head into a critical earnings-reporting season. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3EeUTF4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Consumer Price Index increased 8.5% in March compared to a year earlier, another new 40-year-high following a 7.9% annual gain in February. Energy and agriculture markets remain the critical areas of focus, each of them adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. equity indexes surged on a slower-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month CPI increase, and many economists see this as a potential peak in this inflationary period. The Federal Reserve has left the door open for a 50 basis point increase to its federal funds rate target, and “quantitative tightening” is set to commence in May. But there’s little to suggest inflation will recede toward the central bank’s 2% target anytime soon. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to discuss commodities, inflation, central bank policy, and financial markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JtPfzO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices