Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Though West Texas Intermediate backed off its intraday high of $119.98, a fresh surge for crude oil has analysts invoking the old “the cure for high prices is high prices” chestnut. Food and energy costs are already dragging down household sentiment, as US consumer confidence fell in May to the lowest since February. And oil’s surge may have only just begun. “Energy prices are set to blow minds this week,” tweeted Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator. “I love that there is still a bearish camp out there talking ‘demand destruction’ because it helps you stay in the trade.” Tony joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about energy and inflation. We also hear from Keith Weiner on the future of gold. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3zd27su. Watch the full conversation between Keith Weiner and Mike Green here: https://rvtv.io/3wY0tsa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here's a special bonus trade from Real Vision's original series My Life in 4 Trades – be sure to subscribe. Peter Boockvar identifies the keys to managing stress while trading. He also shares his regret at never having a mentor throughout his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Perth Tolle is the Founder of Life + Liberty Indexes. She joins Harry Melandri to detail why emerging markets with limited regulation will perform more sustainably than emerging markets with heavier governmental control. She explains the variables that go into Life + Liberty’s allocation strategy (“freedom weighting”) and also touches on global macro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, Peter Boockvar, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his fascinating career journey. Boockvar explains how to strategically size a position and shares how he learned to manage risk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

“The next several weeks are going to be rather brutal for markets,” says Raoul, “and bonds are likely to be your only friend as the market begins to price in an immediate, sharp recession, then a Fed pivot in the summer.” Real Vision’s co-founder and CEO joins Andreas Steno Larsen to expand on that forecast as chatter about “peak inflation” and a “soft landing” are rising, global equity fund inflows are surging, and stocks are closing out their first positive week in the last nine. Are we at a major turning point? Or is this simply a bounce within a bear market? Raoul shares his current thoughts about the economy, stocks, bonds, and crypto, emphasizing caution now with an eye on opportunities in the future. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MQzC7Y. Watch Raoul’s special flash update here: https://rvtv.io/3LYrYHo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It was 126 years ago today, on May 26, 1896, that Charles Dow first published the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the Customer's Afternoon Letter. “He was a man after my own heart,” tweeted Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and Maggie Lake’s guest for today’s Daily Briefing. The Dow is celebrating its anniversary with a 600-point surge, following through on Wednesday’s post-FOMC-minutes-release rally. But Tony has his eyes on the disconnect between commodity prices and inflation expectations. “I think they will converge again soon,” he tweeted. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis updated its estimate of first-quarter GDP contraction from 1.4% to 1.5%. Tony and Maggie talk commodities and inflation, and we also hear from Cathie Wood about the macro environment and the long-term forecast for growth tech. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3LNIx8L. And keep an eye out for Cathie’s interview with Raoul – it drops tomorrow.... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Federal Reserve officials acknowledged an “uncertain” economic environment but forecast “solid” growth and continuing strength in the labor market, as minutes to the May FOMC meeting revealed a general consensus behind at least a couple more 50-basis-point rate hikes. The Fed also noted that “restrictive policy may become appropriate.” Stocks struggled for footing in the immediate aftermath of the minutes’ release. George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the May FOMC minutes and the impact of tightening real financial conditions on markets and the economy. We also hear from Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco about the repercussions of a widespread loss of faith in the Fed. And we get a look at today’s episode of the new Real Vision series Crypto Unwrapped. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38IF1iQ. Watch the full conversation between Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco here: https://rvtv.io/3MmeBlg. Watch the Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Leslie Lamb, Ash Bennington, and Paul Guerra here: https://rvtv.io/38iDcZF. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks sagged early, with social media stocks dragging the Nasdaq down more than 3% on bearish earnings guidance from Snap Inc., but rallied off the lows in a move presaged by Thomas Thornton right before noon ET. “Seeing most ETFs down on the day but lifting over today's volume-weighted average prices, which, if those levels can hold, is a positive,” tweeted Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry. Thornton joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about today’s price action in the broader (bullish or bearish?) context. And we hear from Dario Perkins, managing director at Global Macro, about the bursting of the “everything bubble” and the impact of rising interest rates on equity valuations. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lEctcV. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3sU59hz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has logged eight consecutive losing weeks, but it’s leading the U.S. equity indexes to the upside today with a gain of more than 2%. Perhaps investors are looking at stocks with Jared Dillian’s style of optimism. “If we get a recession, and it looks like we will,” notes Dillian, “it will be a much easier trading environment than what we’ve been dealing with. Fed easing policy is always easier than Fed tightening policy.” Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to make his case for a developing risk-on environment. We also hear from Francis “The Market Sniper” Hunt about Bitcoin and its correlation to old-school financial asset prices. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38DtmSo. Watch the full conversation between Francis Hunt and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3LG8cAq. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here's a special bonus trade from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Handling stress is one of the most difficult things investors are faced with daily. Howard Lindzon shares his insights on how to manage stress and why finding a good mentor can be a game changer in life and work. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices