Real Vision: Finance & Investing

The Institute for Supply Management reported today that its services index ticked up to 56.9 in August from 56.7 in July, expanding for the 27th consecutive month and catalyzing a “good news is bad news” leg of the recent equity selloff. It looks like investors are pricing in a higher probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in two weeks. The U.S. dollar is pushing out to multi-decade highs against multiple counterparts, including the Japanese yen and the euro. And the greenback is at all-time highs against the British pound, as the new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss steps into Number 10 as well as a raging energy crisis. And with the People’s Bank of China taking more aggressive steps to defend the yuan against depreciation, now is a good time to understand what’s happening in foreign exchange markets. Weston Nakamura, Real Vision’s man on the ground in Asia, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what we can learn from forex, perhaps the purest market on the planet. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With a population of nearly 1.5 billion, an average age of 28, and a rapidly growing economy, India is a country we all should be following. Capitalmind CEO Deepak Shenoy joins Ash Bennington to talk about the innovation happening across one of the world’s most vibrant places. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We had so much great content from our episode with Alex Gurevich we had to release it into two parts. In this installment, Alex establishes his meta rules for trading and explains his current views on foreign exchange and global equities markets. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Michael Venuto, a co-founder and the chief investment officer of Toroso Investments, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what he learned during his chaotic stretch on the New York Stock Exchange, how he got burned trading Royal Caribbean options in 2009, and why blockchain-traded funds will eventually replace ETFs. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a 370-point gain and turned red this afternoon, as investors appeared to abandon equities ahead of the long Labor Day weekend. This morning’s “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report provided an initial lift on hope there was foundation for a 50 as opposed to a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets September 20-21. And then there’s the crude oil question – as in, is that critical commodity getting ready for another run higher? With the G-7 discussing a price cap on Russian oil, Vladimir Putin saying he won’t sell to nations that agree to it, and Saudi Arabia weighing production cuts, Maggie Lake welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about "black gold," volatility, and things that could make what is, historically, the worst month for the stock market particularly catastrophic this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a two-month low last week, a sign of sustained labor-market strength ahead of Friday’s release of a nonfarm payroll report for August. U.S Treasury yields are rising, with the two-year touching its highest level since 2007. Mortgage rates are also climbing, reaching a two-month high. And the CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 76% probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. At the same time, some data suggest the Fed’s efforts are having their intended effect – that inflation may indeed have been “transitory.” Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the yield market and the phases of the 2021-23 Fed reaction function. Darius thinks we’re in the third phase, where interest rates will stay higher for longer. So, what comes next? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept it short and sour last Friday, and stocks have fallen in all four trading sessions since he re-announced his hawkishness with authority at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. With traders pricing in a 75-basis-point rate hike in September, the path forward for the U.S. seems a little less fraught than the one facing Europe, where rationing and recession loom in consequence of the continent’s energy crisis. That’s with inflation rising to a fresh record in August and virtually goading the European Central Bank into its own major rate hike when it meets next week. Imran Lakh, the founder and CEO of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about volatility and how to trade it using options. We also hear from Dario Perkins about the short-, medium-, and long-term outlook for bonds amid a time of historic uncertainty. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3KqkvBL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Did you miss Raoul Pal's Live AMA on YouTube? Well, you're in luck, because today we're releasing the whole thing. Sit back and enjoy a community coming together for a deep conversation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Europe’s energy crisis is getting worse, stoking inflation as well as fear of “conflict and strife” on the continent. Euro-area economic confidence dropped to a 19-month low in August, as France accused Russia of using natural gas as a “weapon of war.” Recent price action suggests investors are pricing in the demand impact on energy markets. Still, with European policymakers desperately seeking long-term solutions, the nuclear option is back on the table. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the energy crisis in Europe, the policy choices that contributed to it, what can be done now to fix things for the future, and how we can trade it. We also hear from Mark Nelson about why nuclear power will save Europe. Watch the full video featuring Mark Nelson and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3cu9tiy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes followed Bitcoin lower at Monday’s open, trading well in the red as investors continued to price in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s short but stern message that the central bank will tighten monetary policy until inflation is beaten. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a 15-year high, and we’re now witnessing the deepest inversion between the two-year and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note in more than 20 years. And September – historically the worst month for stocks – is just around the corner. “Tightening should only worsen the potential for a major breakage in credit,” notes Mark Ritchie II, “and the Fed’s refusal to pivot in the short run should produce some more potential fireworks to the downside.” Ritchie II, a managing partner at RTM Capital, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the epic battle brewing between bears and bulls and whether U.S. stocks are going to make another run at the lows. We also hear from Vincent Deluard about the energy crisis in Europe. Watch the full conversation featuring Vincent Deluard and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3PX0mEz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices