Flirting with Models

Bin Ren, founder of SigTech, discusses the design of a state-of-the-art backtesting engine and the integration of large language models into the process. Topics include modular design, strategy definition, coupling engine with data, challenges of incorporating alternative and unstructured data, understanding query and making API calls, implications of large language models in programming languages, and contrasting cultural reactions to AI.

Charles McGarraugh, CIO of Altis Partners, discusses their investment stack, comprising an upstream signal layer and a downstream strategy layer. They explore the benefits and drawbacks of this design, the operation of the signal layer, the need for adaptiveness in a rapidly changing world, integrating alternative data in market prediction, portfolio construction and risk management, and their fascination with asset duration and expectations formation.

Andrew Beer from DBi and Adam Butler from ReSolve Asset Management discuss the replication of managed futures strategies. They explore return-based and process-based replication, selecting markets for diversification, and the challenges of derisking and top-down investing. They also discuss the implementation process for replicating an index and achieving broad-based exposure to the hedge fund industry. Overall, they highlight the potential benefits and cost-effectiveness of replication in investment portfolios.

Dean Curnutt, founder of Macro Risk Advisors, discusses the nature of risk in markets, touching on various crises, reflexivity, risk recycling, and the evolving role of the Fed. They explore the 1987 stock market crash, Long-Term Capital Management, the 2008 Financial Crisis, the XIV implosion of 2018, and the 2020 COVID crisis. This episode is a must-listen for risk-focused individuals and those interested in market dynamics.

Gerald Rushton, senior member of the QIS Structuring team at Macquarie Bank, shares insights on commodity strategies, including trend following, commodity carry, congestion, and volatility carry. He discusses the advantages of QIS desks, customization of mandates for clients, and the importance of understanding different types of trend following strategies. He also delves into commodity congestion strategies, the potential returns they offer, and the decision to use the death card as a symbol for quant investing.

On their 15th anniversary, the speaker reflects on their unexpected journey from starting the company in undergrad to its success. They share 15 lessons learned in the financial industry, including risk transformation, diversification, and the challenges of drawdowns and backtesting. They also discuss the importance of diversification in investment portfolios and the nature of backtesting.

My guest is Devin Anderson, co-founder of Convexitas.The theme of this episode, as you can likely guess from the title, is strategy versus structure. While we often focus on strategy specifics on this podcast, Devin hosts a masterclass as to why the structure you wrap your strategy in can ultimately determine the type of strategy you can deliver.Specifically, we discuss option-based tail hedging and the types of strategies that can be delivered in hedge fund, mutual fund, ETF, and separate account wrappers.In the back half of the conversation, we dive into how Convexitas implements their risk mitigating strategies. Specifically, Devin explains why Convexitas focuses on convexity with respect to the S&P 500 and actually refuses to customize this mandate, despite having the ability to do so at scale.Finally, we end the conversation on a bit of a spicier note, where Devin explains why most market pundits overstate the influence large, scheduled derivative rolls might have on the underlying market.Please enjoy my conversation with Devin Anderson.

In this episode I speak with Martin Tarlie, a member of the Asset Allocation team at GMO and spearheading their work on Nebo, a goals-based investment platform.Martin describes Nebo as, “bridging the gap between financial planning and portfolio management,” with a key innovation being the reformulation of risk from volatility to not having what you want/need when you want/need it. In other words, constraints on both wealth target and horizon.This reformulation of the core problem introduces a number of complications to the portfolio optimization process. For example, under classic power utility, lower volatility is always preferred. But if you’re an investor expecting significant shortfall with respect to your wealth targets, increased volatility may be something very much worth pursuing.We spend plenty of time in the weeds discussing topics such as: the limitations of dynamic programming via backwards indication, the term structure of return variance, ergodicity economics, and portfolio selection sensitivity to utility function choices. And while these are all important details, at the end of it all, what Martin stresses most is that it’s the reformulation of the problem being solved that ultimately leads to a more pragmatic solution for allocators.Please enjoy my conversation with Martin Tarlie.

In this episode I speak with Grug, an anonymous MEV searcher on the Ethereum blockchain. If that sentence made no sense to you, I promise this will be a fun episode.To begin the conversation, Grug explains the basic architecture of the Ethereum blockchain and how its structure allows for the emergence of MEV strategies like sandwich attacks, arbitrage, and liquidations. He discusses some of the criteria he looks for when identifying a profitable MEV strategy and provides examples of some of the long-tail approaches he has deployed in the past as well as some of the risks associated with them. We discuss the pro-cyclical nature of some of these strategies, the role of retail flow, and the edge in being able to deploy rapidly.Grug also provides his thoughts on the impact of alt-L1’s and L2’s on MEV, airdrop strategies, and the end game of MEV if Ethereum infrastructure becomes too centralized.Please enjoy my conversation with Grug.

My guest this episode is Doug Greenig, CEO and CIO of Florin Court Capital. Florin Court specializes in delivering an alternative markets CTA, trading over 500 markets ranging from Turkish cross currency swaps to French power markets. We spend the majority of the conversation discussing what makes these markets unique from traditional markets traded by CTAs. For example, who are the players in these markets, what are the unique considerations for introducing and sunsetting markets, and why we would expect these markets to trend in the first place?Doug also explains why he thinks these markets tend to behave better than traditional markets, why you don’t need special trend signals to trade them, and the significant diversification potential they can introduce.Please enjoy my conversation with Doug Greenig.