The Trialogue

Zhao Hai, Director of the International Politics Program in the National Institute for Global Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, returns to the Trialogue to discuss the impact of the US-Israeli war with Iran, the state of US-China trade relations, the future of international institutions, and the prospects of stabilizing cross-strait relations, among other subjects. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:01:22 Beijing's View on the U.S. War with Iran 00:06:09 China's Interests in the Middle East 00:13:06 China's Regional Strategy Going Forward 00:20:15 State of U.S.-China Economic Relations 00:41:43 The Taiwan Question 00:51:32 Ukraine Peace Prospects and China's Role 00:55:59 China-Europe Relations and the Atlantic Rift Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mathew Burrows, program lead of the Stimson Center's Strategic Foresight Hub, returns to the podcast for a forward-looking conversation. We discuss global demographic decline, the energy transition, the promises and limits of AI, the future of the transatlantic relationship, and China's role in a multipolar world. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:02:18 Demographics & the Aging World 00:06:02 AI, Automation, and the Labor Question 00:08:15 Can Population Decline Be Reversed? 00:12:40 Aging, Housing, and Intergenerational Tensions 00:15:38 Energy Transition, Renewables, and Nuclear 00:19:43 AI, Inequality, and the Future of Work 00:25:23 The Human Role in an Automated Economy 00:29:05 The Future of the Transatlantic Relationship 00:33:27 Europe Without the American Umbrella 00:42:01 China and the Multipolar World 00:47:07 Free-Floating Alignments and Global Order 00:50:41 Why Greater Eurasia May Be Best Positioned Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative magazine, joins the Trialogue to discuss the evolution of anti-interventionist thought on the American right. In this conversation we cover the origins of American empire, the extent of U.S. global commitments, the future of NATO, competition with China, and the strategic direction of U.S. foreign policy in Trump’s second term. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:01:37 The Origins of The American Conservative and Anti-Interventionist Conservatism 00:04:30 From Iraq War Dissent to “America First” 00:09:07 American Empire, NATO, and the Case for Retrenchment 00:29:19 Russia, Iran, and the Limits of Threat Inflation 00:38:08 China as a Peer Competitor and Managing Great-Power Competition 00:45:18 Grading Trump’s Second Term: Wars, Trade, and Immigration Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The expiration of New Start on February 5 marks the end of over half a century of bilateral efforts to advance strategic arms control. On February 3, the Stimson Center and the Oppenheimer Project convened leading nuclear experts from the US and Russia to imagine what comes next. The American speakers were Scott Sagan (Stanford University), Rita Guenther (The National Academies), and Matthew Bunn (Harvard Kennedy School). The Russian side was represented by Feodor Voitolovsky (Institute of World Economy and International Relations), Dmitry Stefanovich (Institute of World Economy and International Relations), and Anton Khlopkov (Center for Energy and Security Studies). This episode was recorded as a live online event.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:02:20 Russia’s Position on New START00:10:50 Extending New START Limits00:16:26 Technology and Strategic Stability00:21:09 Track Two Dialogues00:24:54 NPT Review Conference and Iran00:28:51 Russia on Iran and North Korea00:38:40 Verification and Data Exchange After New START00:45:31 New Russian Nuclear Systems01:03:29 Future of Arms Control Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs, returns to the Trialogue at the start of an already-eventful year to take stock of Russian strategy amid dramatic U.S. intervention in Venezuela, crisis in Iran, and negotiations over the future of Ukraine.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:01:23 – Reaction to Trump Corollary to Monroe Doctrine00:08:25 – The Case of Venezuela00:16:02 – Possible U.S. Intervention in Iran00:23:56 – A Year of Trump 2.000:28:44 – The Role of Europe00:32:28 – Russian Objectives in Ukraine00:49:44 – Balancing US-Russia Relations & Ukraine War Aims00:55:55 – World Order in 10 Years Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the PLA and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, returns to the Trialogue to discuss China’s calculations about recent events, including the release of the U.S. National Security Strategy, tense Sino-Japanese relations, the situation in Taiwan, and negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:01:53 – First Year of Trump 2.000:05:59 – The Role of Tariffs00:11:36 – Beijing’s Response to U.S. National Security Strategy00:16:12 – Trump’s Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine00:19:52 – Current Sino-Japanese Relations00:29:22 – Strategy on Taiwan00:33:12 – Ukraine War Negotiations00:37:49 – China’s Relationship with the EU00:42:53 – Looking to the AI Future Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mike Kuiken and Josh Hodges, two commissioners on the congressionally appointed US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, join us to discuss the recommendations of the Commission’s 2025 annual report and the state of US-China relations more broadly.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:01:18 What is the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission?00:04:39 The China Problem00:14:17 A Challenge to the Democratic World?00:17:41 The Axis of Autocracy00:26:33 Biden-Era Framework00:31:52 Policy Recommendations00:47:42 Necessary International Partnerships Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Glenn Diesen, professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and host of the Greater Eurasia Podcast, joins us to discuss the current state of affairs in Europe, including the West’s approach to the war in Ukraine, the future of integration on the continent, and the militarization of Scandinavia. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:01:23 Glenn Diesen’s Background00:03:14 Interest in Russia00:10:23 Return to Norway and Analytical Perspective00:14:22 What is Scandinavia?00:15:59 From Neutrality to NATO00:22:47 The U.S. Position00:27:38 The Future of Europe00:38:28 Will the EU Survive?00:43:52 Nord Stream00:48:44 Competition in the Arctic00:55:25 An Opening for China in Europe? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mathew Burrows, program lead of the Stimson Center’s Strategic Foresight Hub, joins us to discuss his career in the CIA and the National Intelligence Council, where he was the lead author of Global Trends, a non-classified report released every four years as an aid to incoming administrations. We also discuss transformative global events of recent decades, the mechanics of predicting trends, and what policymakers often get wrong in confronting the world.  Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:1:36 Mathew Burrows’ Early Biography00:5:03 A Job at the CIA00:14:12 The Collapse of the Communist Bloc00:16:41 Move to the National Intelligence Council00:22:20 9/11 and the Intelligence Community00:27:21 Snowden Saga00:28:54 Global Trends00:31:41 China Prescience00:39:16 Trump Admin. & Death of Global Trends00:48:09 Enter the Policymakers Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

John Mearsheimer, world-renowned scholar of international relations, joins us to discuss the state of play in the Middle East, East Asia, and Eastern Europe. We also examine the relationship between realism and morality, the nature of the China threat, and the origins of “offshore balancing.” Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.