Scaling Theory

Welcome back to scaling theory. My guest today is ⁠Scott E. Page⁠, Distinguished University Professor of Complexity, Social Science, and Management at the University of Michigan, and an external faculty member at the Santa Fe Institute. He is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a recipient of the Guggenheim Fellowship. His books include The Difference, Diversity and Complexity, The Diversity Bonus, and The Model Thinker.In this episode of Scaling Theory, Scott walks us through what complexity actually is. He unpacks the difference between complicated and genuinely complex systems, explains why cognitively diverse teams systematically outperform homogeneous ones on complex tasks, and what that means for how organizations scale. We also take up path dependence, the spillover effects of overlapping games across platform ecosystems, and where complexity tools have changed real decisions in practice. We close on the single open problem whose resolution would most reshape our understanding of social systems. As you will hear, Scott’s thinking is exceptionally clear. It is always a pleasure to talk with him and to listen to his insights. I hope you enjoy our discussion.You can follow me on X (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠).**BooksPage, S.E. (2007). The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies. Princeton University Press.Page, S.E. (2011). Diversity and Complexity. Princeton University Press (Primers in Complex Systems).Page, S.E. (2018). The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You. Basic Books.Miller, J.H. and Page, S.E. (2007). Complex Adaptive Social Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life. Princeton University Press.Peer-reviewed articlesHong, L. and Page, S.E. (2004). "Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(46): 16385–16389.Page, S.E. (2006). "Path Dependence." Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 1(1): 87–115.Page, S.E. (2007). "Type Interactions and the Rule of Six." Economic Theory, 30(2): 223–241.Bednar, J. and Page, S.E. (2007). "Can Game(s) Theory Explain Culture? The Emergence of Cultural Behavior Within Multiple Games." Rationality and Society, 19(1): 65–97.Bednar, J., Bramson, A., Jones-Rooy, A. and Page, S.E. (2010). "Emergent Cultural Signatures and Persistent Diversity: A Model of Conformity and Consistency." Rationality and Society, 22(4): 407–444.

My guest today is Cass R. Sunstein, University Professor at Harvard and one of the most influential legal and political thinkers of our time. A prolific author of dozens of books and hundreds of academic articles, Cass has shaped debates in constitutional law, administrative law, behavioral economics, and public policy. He is regularly ranked amongst the very top of the most cited legal scholars alive. Cass also served as Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs under President Obama. He has advised governments and international organizations around the world, and was awarded the Holberg Prize, the equivalent of a Nobel in law and the humanities.His latest book, On Liberalism: In Defense of Freedom, is a systematic defense of the liberal tradition at a moment when it is, as he shows, under unprecedented pressure. Our conversation is centered around his book. We begin with the urgency at the heart of the book: how liberalism confronts critiques from moral conservatives and egalitarian progressives alike, what it means to defend the liberal framework in an era of fragmentation, etc. We then turn to questions of scaling: does liberalism have internal patterns or institutional mechanisms that allow it to scale across diverse societies. We grapple with how the liberal tradition’s “big tent” of thinkers (from Mill and Hayek to Roosevelt’s Second Bill of Rights) impact liberalism ability to scale. We also explore how liberalism navigates technological change, expertise versus public accountability, and the pretence of knowledge. I hope you enjoy our discussion.You can follow me on X (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠).**References:On Liberalism (MIT Press, 2025) https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262049771/on-liberalism/

W. Brian Arthur, a pioneering economist and complexity scientist, shares his groundbreaking insights on complexity economics, developed during key moments at the Santa Fe Institute. He delves into how technology drives economic growth, viewing economies as living entities shaped by networks of components. Arthur discusses increasing returns in modern technologies, the evolution of firm strategies in the AI era, and the shift toward algorithmic methods in science. His multidisciplinary journey and advice for researchers inspire listeners to embrace passion and innovation.

Cristina Bicchieri, a leading authority on social norms and the Director of the Center for Social Norms and Behavioral Dynamics at the University of Pennsylvania, explores the intriguing dynamics of norm formation. She discusses how norms emerge and can tip or collapse, the relationship between norms and legal frameworks, and the impact of digital behaviors outpacing regulation. Her insights into scalable norms, collective sanctioning, and the importance of local responses in policymaking provide a fresh perspective on behavior change and societal regulation.

Welcome back to Scaling Theory. My guest today is Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of economics at George Mason University. Robin has long been one of the most original thinkers on institutional design, collective intelligence, as explored in his books The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain. Across his career, he has pushed the boundaries of how societies can aggregate knowledge and make collective decisions when complexity scales faster than comprehension.In this episode, Robin and I discuss how futarchy could scale that logic across our societies? As societies grow larger, representation, information, and incentives all begin to break down, and futarchy is one possible way to rebuild them. Robin and I talk about where this idea has been tested so far, what a real-world implementation might look like in a city or company, and why, despite its promise, futarchy hasn’t yet scaled.Finally, we explore how new technologies like blockchain and AI might change the picture, whether they’ll make futarchy more viable, or perhaps even replace parts of it. And we look ahead to Robin’s vision from The Age of Em. When societies become unimaginably fast and complex, which human institutions survive, and which ones don’t?You can follow me on X (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠).

This is the first solo episode of Scaling Theory, where I take a deep dive into the literature. Building on a working paper titled “Adaptive Regulation,” I explore why “future-proof” laws so often fail in the face of rapid technological change, and how complexity science can guide us toward rules that adapt to the things they regulate. Drawing on recent EU digital acts and voices from law, economics, and complexity theory, I sketch the contours of a regulatory system that scales.You can follow me on X (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠).References:Schrepel, T., Adaptive Regulation (2025) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5416454Ranchordás, S., & Van‘t Schip, M. (2020). Future-Proofing Legislation for the Digital Age. In Time, Law, and Change: An Interdisciplinary Study.Colomo, P. I. (2022). Future-Proof Regulation against the Test of Time: The Evolution of European Telecommunications Regulation. Oxford Journal of Legal Studies, 42(4).Chander, A. (2017). Future-proofing law. UC Davis Law Review.Powell, W. W., & Snellman, K. (2004). The Knowledge Economy. Annual Review of Sociology, 30.Perez, C. (2009). The Double Bubble at the Turn of the Century: Technological Roots and Structural Implications. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(4), 779–805.Allen, D. W., Berg, C., & Potts, J. (2025). Institutional Acceleration: The Consequences of Technological Change in a Digital Economy. Cambridge University Press.Colander, D., Holt, R. P. F., & Rosser, J. B. (2004). The Changing Face of Mainstream Economics. Review of Political Economy, 16(4).Arthur, W. B. (2009). The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves. New York: Free Press.Buchanan, J. M., & Tullock, G. (1962). The Calculus of Consent: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy. University of Michigan Press.Sowell, T. (2007). A Conflict of Visions: Ideological Origins of Political Struggles.West, G. (2017). Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies. Penguin Press.

My guest today is Vinton G. Cerf, widely regarded as a “father of the Internet.” In the 1970s, Vint co-developed the TCP/IP protocols that define how data is formatted, transmitted, and received across devices. In essence, his work enabled networks to communicate, thus laying the foundation for the Internet as a unified global system. He has received honorary degrees and awards that include the National Medal of Technology, the Turing Award, the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the Marconi Prize, and membership in the National Academy of Engineering. He is currently Chief Internet Evangelist at Google.In this episode, Vint reflects on the Internet’s path from ARPANET and TCP/IP to the scaling choices that made global connectivity possible. He explains why decentralization was key, and how fiber optics and data centers underwrote explosive growth. Vint also addresses today’s policy anxieties (fragmentation, sovereignty walls, and fragile infrastructures…) before looking upward to the interplanetary Internet now linking spacecraft. Finally, we turn to AI: how LLMs are reshaping learning and software, and why the next leap may be systems that question us back. I hope you enjoy our discussion.You can follow me on X (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠).

Melanie Moses, a Professor of Computer Science at the University of New Mexico and Chair of the New Mexico AI Consortium, dives deep into the fascinating interplay of scaling theory in nature and technology. She reveals how decentralized systems like ant colonies can inform robust AI design. The discussion also highlights the costs of scalable infrastructure and advocates for innovative governance to address global challenges. Furthermore, Melanie examines the potential of biological principles in fostering collaboration and efficiency in AI, all while encouraging interdisciplinary research.

Melanie Mitchell, a Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and author, dives into the complexities of intelligence in her conversation. She challenges misconceptions about AI's capabilities, critiquing traditional measures like the Turing Test. The discussion highlights 'jagged intelligence' and how biological insights can inspire more adaptable AI systems. Melanie also emphasizes the importance of metacognition in AI and explores the concept of emergence in complexity science, advocating for a more decentralized approach to developing truly intelligent machines.

Welcome back to Scaling Theory. Today, we are taking on a surprising but deeply relevant topic: religion. We are not entering the realm of theology, but rather looking at religion the way an economist might look at a multinational corporation or a digital platform. Think of it this way: in the U.S. alone, faith-based organizations generate more annual revenue than Apple and Microsoft combined. So when we ask how religions scale, we are really asking how some of the world’s most enduring (and powerful) institutions grow, adapt, and persist.Our guest is Paul Seabright, Professor of Economics at the Toulouse School of Economics and author of The Divine Economy: How Religions Compete for Wealth, Power, and People.Paul and I talk about how religions scale, why rituals, doctrines, and compelling narratives matter for growth. We explore how religions act as multi-sided platforms, how they build robust networks that resist churn, and how technologies like the printing press and social media can reshape their reach. Toward the end, we explore whether new movements in the Silicon Valley function like new religions, and what their chances of success might be in today’s competitive market for belief. I hope you enjoy our discussion.You can follow me on X (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) to receive regular updates.