NAB Morning Call

Thursday 9th February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been quiet overnight news-wise, but a session rich with central bank speakers. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the main news came out of the ECB, where a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting seems nailed on, with talk now of another 50 possible in the May meeting as well. In the US equities have taken a hit, as expectations rise for more hikes from the Fed, with some expecting rates to touch 6% this year, although that’s not suggested by anyone in the central bank just yet. Today Germany’s delayed inflation numbers are out and will undoubtedly impact the Euro area CPI released last week. And the weekly jobless claims numbers tonight will be studied as some start to wonder whether last week’s non-farm payrolls was a bit of an outlier. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t too much new from Jerome Powell when he was interviewed by the Wall Street Journal’s David Rubenstein, but that didn’t stop a rally in bonds for a short spell. It was followed by a swift reversal, perhaps on the realisation that he hadn’t actually offered anything new. NAN’s Rodrigo Catril says, nonetheless, it was a refreshingly open discussion reflecting the transparency of the Fed these days. At home a more hawkish RBA has seen bond yields rise sharply, with the expectation of more than one rise still to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have had a chance to digest last Friday’s US jobs numbers and are clearly expecting a more hawkish stance by the Fed. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about the potential for a higher terminal rate from the Fed and a more aggressive stance by the RBA. The expectation is that today they will lift rates by 25 basis points, but there’s the outside chance they will go further and a reduced chance of them pausing after this meeting. Tomorrow morning the Fed’s Jerome Powell is talking and its unlikely he’ll do much to soften the market’s stance.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US payrolls numbers on Friday showed strong jobs growth, which surprised markets pushing bond yields higher and weakening the US dollar. And NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the ISM Services number adding to the view that the Fed might have to do more to contain US inflation. Could we see two more 25 bp hikes form the Fed before they pause? And does thus change the stance of central banks globally, including the RBA tomorrow. The expectation is there will be a 25-basis point hike tomorrow and again in March, but could the terminal rate be higher given the prospect of global inflation proving harder to contain. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThree central banks have tried to sound hawkish this week, as they lift rates at levels already anticipated by the markets. But does the market believe them? That’s a question put to NAB’s Gavin Friend today, as US share prices rise and bond markets rally. It seems, despite central bankers (the Fed the ECB and BoE) continuing to say there’s more work to be done, there has been more focus on Jerome Powell’s line that “the disinflation process has started” and Christine Lagarde declaring “inflation risks in Europe are more balanced”. Where next depends on the data, of course, which will make tonight’s payroll numbers from the US important, along with the US ISM services index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn the US the Fed has announced the expected 25 basis point rate hike, but this year’s prevalent hope of a soft landing seems to have diminished somewhat. The US ISM manufacturing number was lower than expected, whilst the ADP employment numbers showed less jobs, alongside more job openings in the latest JOLTs numbers. NAB’s David de Garis is asked whether that all points to an environment where inflation falls more slowly. Certainly, core inflation is holding up more than expected in Europe and data from Zealand yesterday showed that labour costs there are still high. So, central banks will think they still have much to do, which will be evidenced by 50bp rises by the ECB and Bank of England over the next 24 hours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe are less than a day away from the next FOMC meeting, with the strong expectation that rates will rise in the US by 25 basis points. But in light of recent data suggesting inflation could be slowing, including last night’s wage price index, NAB’s Skye Masters says there’s increasing speculation that the Fed will pause after this meeting. Certainly the mood in markets today is positive, with increased hopes that the global economy will see a soft landing. That’s what was suggested in the latest IMF forecasts, with the notable exception of the UK. Strong earnings results and outlooks have also added to the mood. And there’s a lot more to come this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st January 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSpain’s inflation numbers provided an unpleasant surprise – core inflation has risen to 7.5%. Meanwhile Germany saw GDP fall in Q4 (QonQ). If these numbers are mirrored across Europe the cocktail of rising inflation and falling output is a challenging one for the ECB. NAB’s Taylor Nugent is asked if we should start talking about stagflation again. Also today we get to see the size of China’s post-lockdown bounce back, the impact of early Christmas shopping on Australia’s December retail numbers and, importantly, ahead of the FOMC, the wage price index for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's a busy week ahead for central banks, with the Fed, BoE and ECB all meeting to push their rates higher. To add to the potential volatility there’s a swag of high profile corporate earnings results in the US too. But tech stocks have been pushing higher and higher so far this month, presumably o the assumption that central banks will ease off on rates soon as economic indicators start to soften. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says age inflation numbers I the US will be of particular importance this week, as service inflation is taking more time to slow than goods inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA strong GDP read from the US, together with with falling prices, provided grounds for optimism in markets overnight, particularly equities that were buoyed also by a strong earnings result from Tesla. But NAB’s David de Garis says it’s not all good news. Investment in equipment was down and durable goods orders, if you take out a splurge in aircraft orders, fell in the month. And the weekly job numbers suggest the labour market remains as tight as ever. Meanwhile, what must the RBA be thinking after Wednesday’s Australian inflation number, coming in much higher than expected? Perhaps today’s producer prices will show that things are moving faster in the right direction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.