NAB Morning Call

Thursday 9th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a lot of water between where Jerome Powell sees the Fed heading and how Philip Lowe is seeing things from the RBA’s viewpoint. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s been no market retreat from yesterday’s positions, when we saw the US dollar rise, Aussie dollar fall and a divergence in yields, with US treasuries rising and Aussie yields falling. Speeches from Philip Lowe and Jerome Powell have done little to change the mood. Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is on hold, with further rises possible. And US data overnight did nothing to dispel the idea that the labour market there remains tight, suggesting the Fed will stick with the plan to do more, with a rising expectation for a 50bp hike at the next FOMC meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBig market moves overnight thanks to a slightly less hawkish RBA yesterday and a more hawkish sounding Jerome Powell in front of a US senate committee. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still committed to further tightening but raised the potential for a pause in hikes, after yesterday’s 25bp lift. The usual caveat – that it’s all data dependent – still applies. It’s the same for the US of course, with payrolls on Friday and CPI next week two very influential data prints to look out for. Meanwhile Jerome Powell started his appearance overnight by saying “the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th March 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian bond yields fell sharply yesterday ahead of the RBA meeting today. NAB’s Skye Masters says this shows there’s an expectation that the central bank will pause after today’s rate hike and we can expect some repricing in bonds if they instead signal a series of consecutive hikes. The uncertainty around what central banks do next was demonstrated by the ECB overnight, with speakers still divided between hiking, if so by how much, or pausing. As to the latest Fed thinking, Jerome Powell’s testimony tonight (Australia time) will be particularly important.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Ray Attrill puts it on this morning’s podcast, three central banks, two days of testimony from Jerome Powell,. Topped off by US payrolls numbers – what’s not to like. Provided you thrive on volatility, of course, because any of those events has the power to change the direction of markets. They finished last week with quiet optimism, with equities pushing higher and bond yields falling. We look at why that might be and suggest one surprise this week could come from the Bank of Japan, the last meeting of Governor Kuroda who might be prepared to spring a surprise, particularly as inflation keeps rising. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHaving pushed above 4 percent, US 10 year Treasury yields lurched higher still overnight, with yields up in Europe too and a sharper rise in Australian 10 year yields. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are responding to the revised Q4 numbers of US labour costs and productivity. Meanwhile European inflation was higher than expected yet it curiously wasn’t reflected in equities overnight. US Services ISM will be the key number to watch today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a session of mixed news overnight. US 10 year treasury yields have hit 4 percent as expectations continue to mount for higher rates for longer. In China the PMIs came in higher than expected. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we are seeing the same picture we saw in western economies as they came out of lockdown, with a faster bounce back than anticipated. In Australia the GDP data showed a softening of demand, but yields reacted to a rise in the monthly CPI number. In the UK the central bank governor suggested there was not necessarily any need to raise rates, but the mood is very different in Europe with the region’s inflation number expected to kick higher today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a growing concern that inflation is creeping back into Europe. That’s the case in France and Spain, with Germany’s CPI numbers out today and the Euro Area inflation print tomorrow. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are already pricing in a higher terminal rate, with the ECB’s Philip Lane talking up more rate hikes for longer. So how far will they go? Meanwhile, the Canadian economy has ground to a halt, and NAB has downgraded its forecast for Australian GDP today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe pound rose sharply higher today on the news that a deal had been struck with the EU over the problems of the UK’s internal trade with Northern Ireland. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets have responded to the pragmatism of Rishi Sunak and the hope that it signals the start of a better future for UK-EU trade down the track. Meanwhile, US equities have bounced back today, even though expectations of a higher Fed terminal rate have settled in to place. Is it those buying the dip or the return of the soft-landing brigade? The drip-feed of EU inflation data will be the focus today, ahead of the full number tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were shaken on Friday when the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator – showed an unexpected bounce back. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was one of a series of strong numbers at the end of last week, and talks through the implications for the Fed, with some voting members talking of the need to be even more than previously signalled. The news has pushed bond yields higher, particularly at the front end of the curve. Meanwhile equity investors are being forced to question their optimism. And the damage is not restricted to the US with investors wondering whether this week’s European inflation read will tell a similar story.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS GDP has been revised down slightly for Q4. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its been driven by lower than expected consumption numbers. The Fed will also be concerned by the quarterly GDP deflator, which has shown prices rising more than anticipated. Eyes will be on the January numbers for prices and consumption out tonight. To add to the US woes, jobless claims fell last week adding to a string of data suggesting the tightness in the labour market is taking a long time to ease. We’re a week away from non-farm payrolls. Remember the impact last time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.