NAB Morning Call

Monday 24th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABShould we ignore the technical indicators? A recession seems even less likely after stronger than expected PMIs for the US and Europe on Friday. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how central banks will respond to this, particularly if we see resilient employment costs and strong US and European GDP numbers this week. Locally, Australia’s inflation will attract the most attention. US earnings season is in full swing too, with some big tech names reporting tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s definitely a more sombre mood this morning, with equities falling in the US and Europe. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much is this down to Tesla’s price cutting, and the need for a squeeze in margins to maintain demand. Yields are also down, with softer employment, manufacturing an housing data from the US. Couple that with falling inflation in New Zealand and the question has to be asked, at least for today, how far do central banks really need to go? We’ll get an update on jJust how soft global economies are today with PMIs for the US, Europe and the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th April 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK’s inflation numbers were an unwelcome surprise yesterday, with the headline rate remaining in double digits, at 10.1%. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are now expectations for three more hikes from the Bank of England, which has seen bond yields rising sharply. Other asset classes have seen very little movement, with the Fed’s Beige book describing a US economy that is, at best, stagnant. The proposed new structure of the RBA will be a focus today – we discuss the proposal in today’s podcast – along with NZ CPI out this morning.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFreedom has turned into a shopping frenzy in China, but it’s not reflected in capex or industrial production. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this retail growth will be short lived and, if not, could it be inflationary? Meanwhile, inflation remains stubborn in Canada, employment numbers rise in the UK and the RBA minutes yesterday suggest a rate rise could still be in play next week. Central banks plan to do a lot more it seems. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a quiet session overnight with US equities struggling to get into the green until the very last gasp and bond yields pushing higher. NAB’s David de Garis says there will have been some encouragement from the Empire Manufacturing Index which moved from minus 24.6 to a positive 10.8, driven by strong forward orders. But there’s a lot of volatility in regional manufacturing reports, so will it stick? Today the RBA releases minutes of the last meeting and there’s a swathe of China data to absorb.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere remains some confusion over how far and fast central banks will move, as banking concerns subside. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses today, the Fed is sending very mixed messages, with Christopher Waller suggesting the fight against inflation has only seen sideways moves so far, whilst Raphael Bostic seems happy to pause after one more hike. Yet last week Golsbee and Daly were wondering whether any further hikes were needed at all. Locally, NZ inflation this week will be one highlight, and could be a useful guide for the direction of prices in Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday we saw a surprise increase in the number of Australians working last month. So, does that mean a greater likelihood of more hikes form the RBA? Certainly a higher Aussie dollar and rising bond yields are suggesting that. It’s a question put to NAB’s David de Garis. There’s also discussion about the UK’s stagnant outlook, with GDP flatlining and mortgage defaults rising. Hopes of easing inflation I the US were helped by a fall in producer prices. Maybe increased exports from China will help too. Perhaps a weakening in consumer demand through today’s US retail sales will add to that picture. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe headline rate for US inflation fell and for a moment bond yield showed significant falls. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, the core readings were less hopeful. It wasn’t long after the release that the Fed’s Thomas Barkin reiterated the need to do more to get inflation down to 2%. But there was some concern amongst the Fed’s ranks at the last FOMC meeting as credit conditions worsened. Could inflation come down by itself? The Bank of Canada is happy to sit it out, keeping rates on hold yesterday and still expecting to reach their 2% target next year. Today the focus is on Australian employment numbers and, perhaps, the weekly jobless claims in the US, which went down last time, suggesting more people in work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere will be a lot of focus on the US CPI number tonight, with an expected fall in the headline rate. There could be quite a market response if there are signs that inflation hasn’t peaked. NAB’s Skye asters believes markets still have unrealistically high expectations of rate cuts later in the year, echoing comments that Jerome Powell gave at the last FOMC press conference. We get top read the full minutes of that meeting later today. This morning we also look into yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Australia’s strong consumer confidence read, which was helped by the RBA’s ‘hold’ decision, again based on the assumption that inflation has peaked. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the start of a what could be a volatile short week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it seems markets have taken the non-farm payrolls at face value, seeing no dramatic fall in jobs as a sign that the Fed will stick with its hawkish tilt. But the weekly jobless claims have been revised upwards and there’s other evidence that job layoffs are increasing. As markets adjust to the jobs news, there’s also the anticipation of this week’s US inflation read, and a few major bank earnings results this week too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.