NAB Morning Call

Friday 16th January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia’s housing market keeps getting more expensive, yet the real issue isn’t just how many homes we build — it’s how slowly they are changing hands. Dr Nicola Powell, chief economist at Domain, says turnover has become a structural drag, creating inefficiencies that stem far more from policy settings than from raw supply. Even with immigration easing, demand still outpaces movement, and rising prices continue to inflate the value of the national housing stock far faster than the number of dwellings themselves. Building approvals have jumped, apartment plans are surging, and forecasts point to further price gains in 2026, but the deeper question remains: why isn’t the market slowing? From interest‑rate dynamics and construction costs to population shifts and the FOMO factor, today’s episode digs into the mechanics behind a market that pushes prices ever high, well beyond the bounds of affordability. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe mood in markets has brightened as tensions around Iran appear to have eased, with President Trump signalling a softer military stance, and attention has swung back to stronger‑than‑expected US data — lower jobless claims, upbeat regional manufacturing surveys and a solid equity rebound led by tech and small caps. Oil has slumped sharply, bond yields are higher in the US and UK, and the US dollar is firmer, while the UK has surprised with a 0.3% rise in November GDP that keeps the quarter out of the red. With a quieter day ahead — NZ PMI, US industrial production and the NAHB housing index, NAB’s Gavin Friend makes sense of a week that ends much calmer than it began. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ken Compton, a NAB markets commentator known for his sharp insights into global financial dynamics, joins the discussion to unravel the current market unease. The conversation dives into the significant retreat from big tech stocks towards small caps and precious metals, highlighting record highs in gold and silver. Compton also analyzes the implications of a striking US$1.2 trillion trade surplus for China and the impact of mixed US bank earnings. Additionally, tensions in the Middle East and their economic repercussions are explored, adding a geopolitical layer to market movements.

Wednesday 14th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA softer run of US inflation has kept hopes of further rate cuts alive, even as markets juggle mixed earnings, fragile consumer sentiment in Australia, signs of recovery in New Zealand, and a surge in Japanese yields driven by election rumours. Commodities are climbing on geopolitical tension, with President Trump’s “help is on its way” message to Iranian protesters fuelling speculation of US action and adding to the broader sense of unease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 13th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has been directing sharp words at Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve, while the Fed Chair has pushed back, suggesting that any legal action against him is politically motivated. It’s the kind of confrontation with the central bank that many had anticipated, yet markets have taken it in their stride so far.Where markets have reacted more noticeably is the proposal for a 10% cap on credit‑card interest rates — though this may prove to be another policy idea that makes noise without ever becoming reality.We also look ahead to US CPI, and unpack a couple of Australian data points: consumer confidence, household spending, and what they collectively signal for the RBA. If further confirmation was needed, yesterday’s numbers strengthen the case for another rate rise — potentially as early as next month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS rate cut expectations are starting to erode, even as jobs growth softens. Markets are beginning to question whether weaker payrolls really matter if inflation refuses to fall — and this week’s CPI and PPI will be critical in deciding that. But, as NAB's Ray Attrill points out, it depends on Trump's nomination for Fed chair. The delayed Supreme Court ruling on tariffs now looks set for Wednesday, adding another layer of uncertainty. And here at home, fresh Australian consumer spending data lands today, giving an early read on household momentum heading into year end. Welcome to 2026, which promises to be just as firey as President Trump’s first year in office. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia has managed to steer its own course through a turbulent 2025. Taylor Nugent explains how the RBA resisted the urge to slash rates early in the year, instead holding firm as inflation proved more stubborn than expected. That stance kept the economy balanced while other central banks lurched between easing and tightening. Compared with New Zealand’s harsher approach and the US’s tariff‑driven dilemmas, Australia’s policy mix looks measured – not perfect, but enough to avoid the extremes.Rodrigo Catril adds that the Aussie dollar has been resilient, even if it hasn’t fully matched the US dollar’s swings. Its fortunes are now more tied to China and Asian sentiment than Wall Street, and with local rates set to rise while the Fed eases, he sees the currency heading towards 70 cents. Ken Crompton rounds out the picture with bonds, noting strong demand for Australian debt and a widening yield gap with the US. Together, the NAB team sketch a story of a country that hasn’t soared, but hasn’t stumbled either – Australia has held its own. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gavin Friend, a London-based NAB Markets economist, dives into the latest central bank maneuvers impacting global markets. He analyzes the Bank of England's narrow rate cut decision and the ECB's cautious stance amid uncertain forecasts. The discussion also reveals Germany's potential growth rebound, the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike, and the implications of US inflation data. Lastly, Friend highlights New Zealand's surprisingly strong GDP, hinting at possible shifts in fiscal policy as we head into the new year.

Thursday 18th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a big Thursday, with markets bracing for the BoE and ECB after UK CPI surprised with outright deflation. German sentiment disappointed again, and Japan’s stronger exports added to the case for a BoJ hike tomorrow. All eyes are on the November U.S. CPI release later today. Equities remain under pressure with no Santa Claus rally in sight, oil prices edge higher amid Trump’s Russian tanker threats, and silver hits fresh highs. Meanwhile, New Zealand shows signs of recovery with improved confidence and GDP prospects. Ray Attrill joins for his final time in 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Taylor Nugent, a NAB Markets economist, dives into the imminent RBA rate hikes expected in early 2026, emphasizing stronger growth and inflation risks. He discusses the surprising US payrolls data and the impact of unemployment rates on Fed cut expectations. The analysis of mixed global PMIs reveals a unique improvement in the UK, despite the Bank of England's cautious stance. Nugent also touches on consumer confidence linked to rate changes and previews an eventful week for central bank decisions.