NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 30th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFor all the delaying tactics of central bank speakers, markets are still pricing cuts earlier for the fed and the ECB. So who goes first? NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s a two-horse race, although markets are pricing in early cuts in Europe. That could all change, of course, depending on what’s said by the FOMC tomorrow. Europe’s destiny will be somewhat shaped by it’s GDP numbers today, which are expected top show that the Euro area is in recession. There’s also discussion about Australia’s retail numbers out today, which are expected to show a fall in December in response to the bounce in sales (because of sales) in November. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou want busy, we’ll give you busy.The FOMC and the Bank of England meet this week and five of the magnificent 7 report earnings. We’ll also see the latest Australian CPI read and payrolls data from the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to catch up on data from the tail end of last week, which saw US core-PCE dip below 3%, whilst European data continues to show more of a downturn, with signs that the ECB may be changing its tune on waiting till June to cut rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Discussion on the performance of Australian equities in 2023 compared to US shares. Analysis of potential strategies for investing in Australian shares in 2024, considering lower rates and increased consumer cash. Exploring the dominance of financials and materials sectors in the Australian market. Insights on the timing and impact of rate cuts on the share market. Exploration of challenges and opportunities in the real estate sector.

Discusses China's economic recovery efforts, including a reserve requirement cut and potential fiscal stimulus. Analyzes Japan's bond yields and the possibility of positive interest rates. Examines the impact of a half percent cut in China's minimum reserve requirements. Analyzes PMIs in Europe and implications for rate cuts. Highlights the positive performance of the US economy and upcoming economic data releases.

Topics discussed include China's equity market and rescue package, the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's easy policy, comparison of PMIs, Bank of Canada interest rates and potential rate cuts.

US equities hit new highs reflecting optimism. Weak data and pessimism for Chinese economy don't impact US ebullience. Bond markets were contained. Bank of Japan press conference and revised forecasts may determine future policy changes. NAB Business Survey is out today. Analysis of bond yields, Fed expectations, US vs China equities. Global equity markets, Bank of Japan, Australia's position, and the bond market. Bond market response to US Treasury movements. US Treasury issuing two-year notes, New Hampshire primary, and speculation on Trump vs Biden election.

Tech sector rallies as major tech stocks drive the S&P to its highest level since January 2022. Varying economic conditions seen across different regions, with US consumer sentiment soaring while UK and Europe face a potential recession. Updates on upcoming tech earnings from Netflix, Tesla, and IBM. Discussion on Australia's plans to combat the cost of living crisis and potential impact on rate cuts by the RBA. Insights on recent statements from Fed speakers, rate cut expectations, surprising retail sales in Canada and the UK, and potential government action on the cost of living crisis. Speculation on the impact of upcoming economic events and political developments.

Guest Frances Coppola, UK economist and writer discusses the tie between Bitcoin's value and central bank policies. The recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC is explored, including the potential for increased legitimacy and de-risking of cryptocurrency investments. The impact of ETFs on the price and appeal of cryptocurrencies is debated, as well as the future of regulations and the long-term appreciation of Bitcoin.

Friday 19th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS bond yields continue to push higher as the expectation for delayed cuts mounts. The weekly jobless claims will help the Fed’s case here, with a surprise fall showing how tight the labour market still is. But these are volatile numbers, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, particularly over the holiday period. The same applies to the surprise drop in Australian employment numbers yesterday, although the trend is still showing a rise and there’s nothing to change the RBA’s path for now. Plus, peace hopes for the Middle east and a preview of our first Weekend edition of 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast discusses the pricing for delays in rate cuts in markets, the positive data releases in retail sales growth, the rebound in UK inflation delaying chances of cuts by the BoE, the revised expectation for a rate rise by the RBA, and the current economic slowdown in China, including decreasing GDP growth and retail sales.