NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 27th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a session low on significant data and low on market moves. Bond markets have managed to absorb sizeable auctions however, and equities have bounced back as we approach month end and the US inflation data at the end of the week. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through those moves, some of the softer data out f the US and looks ahead to Australia’s CPI today, explaining why this release is more useful than the last. And breaking the glass? Hear comments from on member of the Bank of Canada who says they are facing an emergency when it comes to productivity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe CNY climbed higher today, as the PBoC set a higher reference rate, reversing expectations that perhaps authorities were willing to see the currency drift a little lower. NAB’s Rodrigo Catrl talks through the moves, and the warning from one senior Japanese official that speculation driving down the Yen will not be tolerated. Meanwhile bond yields in the US and Europe push higher, ahead of inflation data later in the week. Data is light today, but we get consumer confidence data for Australia, Germany and the US (conference board). But as Rodrigo points out, how people feel and what they do are often very different things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe CNY fell sharply on Friday after Chinese authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the consequences and repercussions of an approach that might be less contained. Meanwhile markets are responding to the commentary form Central banks last week. How would you sum it up in one word, asks Phil? Later? No, quite the reverse says Taylor. Particularly in the UK. Although ‘later’ still applies to the RBA and perhaps, to the FOMC. It’s a quiet, short week, but a lot off the key data emanates from Australia, including CPI on Wednesday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd March 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Foreign students are back and more than ever. Julie Hare, education editor at the AFR, says its more than just a rebound and catch-up from COVID. Something has shifted. So, what does that mean for the economy? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are economic consequences – good and bad. It has alleviated some of the tightness in the labour market, but its also added to inflation pressures. Phil asks, without it, how well would the economy be faring? Looking ahead the picture is complicated. On this week’s podcast we look at how international demand is not matched by the domestic appetite for higher education, despite the government’s aims to increase the numbers and diversity of students. Plus, how are educators coping with new regulations aimed at clamping down on those cheating the system to gain access to work in Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets ushed higher, presumably on expectations of looming rate cuts by various central banks. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says a move in August is still expected by the Bank of England, as the two hawks who voted for a rise last time fell in line in the latest meeting. In fact, one central bank did cut rates overnight. But what about the impacts of local data yesterday. Was the Australia unemployment number too low for the RBA, and the NZ GDP read too soft for the RBNZ? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation has eased, but not enough yet says Jerome Powell, as the Fed keeps rates on hold, and Fed members point to a slightly higher long-term nominal rate. NAB’s Taylor Nugent dissects the announcement and the press conference, before looking ahead to the Bank of England. UK inflation yesterday was a little weaker than expected. But not enough to change the dial at the BoE. Services inflation remains persistently high. Also today, GDP for New Zealand and Australia’s employment numbers. So, what would the RBA like to see today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast covers recent market movements, RBA's neutral stance, potential downward movements, household squeeze impact, tax cuts, Bank of Japan's policy changes, low headline inflation rate, improving economic sentiment in Europe, and anticipation of key events like the FOMC meeting and UK inflation.

Tuesday 19th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTwo central banks meet today, but the outcomes seem predictable. The end of negative rates by the Bank of Japan seems to have been well signalled, and the RBA continues its restrictive policy settings. NAB’s Skye Masters says we continue to look to November as the first possible rate cut in Australia. Meanwhile bond yields in the UW continue to push higher, ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week. Phil asks if 2-year yields could push as high as 5%. Elsewhere, positive data from China yesterday, the ZEW survey for Europe today and Canada’s inflation print.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 18th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis week we hear the interest rate decisions from the RBA, the Fed, the BOE, the Bank of Japan, Norge’s Bank and the Swiss National Bank. Will any of them move rates? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at what to expect and when, including the growing possibility that we’ll see a lift in rates and an end to yield curve control by the BoJ. Generally, though, the tone seems to be higher for longer as many indicators are showing inflation is taking a while to get under control. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th March 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A pandemic, water shortages, labour supply issues, the cost of finance, China’s slow recovery, climate change. It seems like the agricultural sector faces massive headwinds, but NAB’s Lea Jurkovic says there’s still an immense amount of optimism within the sector, with plenty of upside potential in Australia’s export markets. That optimism is shared by Lachlan Marshall, who runs the Yurunga Farms Partnership, a diary and cattle operation near Deniliquin. He joins Phil and Lea to talk about how he is using mechanisation and data to drive efficiencies, that enhance the productivity and long-term viability of his farm. “I’m scaling up to thrive rather than survive, he says on this week’s Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.