NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 6th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPolls start closing in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Virginia, which closes late morning Australia time, was called by Associated Press within 36 minutes last time. So, we could start to get a picture of how each candidate is faring by lunchtime today, even if the final outcome could take time – possibly weeks. Something else that could take longer than originally envisaged, a cut by the RBA.  Australia’s approach with shallower hikes means there’s less rush to cut rates and February is looking a little less likely. Taylor talks through the points from yesterday’s RBA meeting. Plus, why today is an important one for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 5th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have responded to a poll over the weekend which showed a swing in favour of Kamala Harris in Iowa. It was driven, apparently, by more older women expressing a preference. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Iowa isn’t normally considered a swing state, so there is the question about whether this could be replicated across the country. But we haven’t seen a massive unwinding of positions that you might associate with the Trump trade. The RBA meets today and there will be a lot of focus on what’s in and out of the statement, and whether there’s a more concerted effort to drive market expectations further back into mid-2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, NAB's market strategist with a keen eye for economic trends, discusses the intersection of election dynamics and market performance. He highlights how election uncertainties are impacting technology stocks, including a potential shift in value from Apple to NVIDIA. Attrill delves into disappointing job numbers affecting the Federal Reserve's strategy and the broader implications for the manufacturing sector. He also reflects on the evolving landscape of tech innovation and its role amidst market volatility.

Friday 1st November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australian house prices have defied logic. Core Logic’s Eliza Owen says when interest rates rise you should see asset prices come down. In theory. Yet the last rate rise, in November last year, coincided with a fresh record high in home values. Now homes in NSW have increased in value for 20 consecutive months. Until now. Today’s data, for October, shows the growth streak in Sydney has been broken. Eliza joins Phil to break down the detail on trends in home prices across the country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Skye Masters, NAB’s market strategist with expertise in both Australian and global markets, shares insights on the recent volatility in US shares tied to disappointing tech forecasts despite strong earnings. She dives into the implications of rising UK bond yields due to increased spending and potential inflation. Skye also highlights consumer trends, retail sales contrasts between Australia and the US, and the impact of upcoming economic data on market sentiment. A must-listen for anyone following financial trends!

Thursday 31st October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were a few reasons for central banks to be cautious about the speed of the cuts to interest rates. Europe is growing a little faster than expected, whilst German inflation kicked back up a little. Whilst US GDP is weaker it is being held up by strong levels of consumption. Australia’s CPI didn’t surprise, so there’s no reason for the FRBA to change the expected path of rate cuts. And the UK Chancellor announced a budget high on tax hikes, but also higher on borrowing. What impact will that have on the Bank of England? NAB’s Gavin Friend interprets a day rich on data - not forgetting the latest tech earnings - which much more to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Taylor Nugent, a market economist at NAB, shares insights on essential economic trends. He discusses the declining job openings in the US alongside Japan's falling unemployment, indicating mixed signals in the labor market. Taylor highlights the significance of upcoming GDP and CPI figures from Europe and Australia, and addresses how these might influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's decisions. The conversation also delves into the anticipation surrounding tech earnings from giants like Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft, which could shape market reactions.

Tuesday 29th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs suggested yesterday oil prices fell sharply in this session as markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Middle East war didn’t escalate further after the Israeli attack on Iran. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to explain the continued rise in bond yields. Could a fear of inflation reigniting under a Trump presidency be part of the pricing? Kamala Harris makes her last major speech in Washington tonight, one week out from the election. We are a day away from Alphabet’s earnings results, but there are reports that Meta might be launching its own AI search engine, to reduce its reliance on Google and Bing, although no spike in Meta shares on the rumours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAfter that leap in margins for Tesla last week, all eyes will be on a plethora of big-tech earnings this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it could be a volatile week, with the VIX index pushing over 20 on Friday. It’s been a busy weekend with the Japanese election unlikely to bring an outright majority. What does that mean for the BoJ? China released data showing even more of an economic slowdown, along with dates for the National People’s Congress which could ratify a rescue plan. This week there’s a lot of data to come, including US AND European Q3 GDP and US payrolls at the end of the week. Locally, all eyes will be on Australian inflation data middle of the week.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Barron, an ABC journalist and co-host of Planet America, dives into the battleground of the upcoming US elections. He highlights the neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris, questioning the reliability of polls and betting odds. Barron discusses Trump's potential policies, like tariff increases and immigration strategies, while shedding light on the challenges faced by traditional polling methods. The conversation also touches on the complex motivations driving Trump's political tactics and upcoming election uncertainties.