NAB Morning Call

In this engaging discussion, Andrew Irvine, the CEO of NAB, shares insights from the Microsoft CEO Conference. He addresses pressing questions about the global economy and NAB's recent earnings, tackling issues like the wealth gap and housing affordability. Irvine emphasizes how AI can enhance productivity in banking and housing, while also discussing the impact of the RBA's interest rate cuts. With a focus on the need for systemic changes, he remains optimistic about Australia's economic future despite current challenges.

Ken Crompton, an Economist at NAB, dives into the recent fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, discussing their startling rise and the effects of the Big Beautiful Tax Bill. He highlights how government spending uncertainties influence bond markets and the significance of weak auction results. The conversation extends to the economic landscapes of the U.S. and Europe, touching on jobless claims and PMIs, while also addressing Bitcoin's price surge and its potential as 'new gold'. Overall, a mix of cautious optimism and economic challenges defines the current climate.

Thursday 22nd May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was another weak bond auction in the US overnight, pushing yields ever higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there is a risk premium being applied to US bonds, from concerns over tariffs and, perhaps more significantly, rising government debt. The Big Beautiful Bill could add significantly to the government’s debt at a time when the balance of trade is deteriorating. Phil asks, should we be worried? Also today, a bigger than expected increase in UK CPI, but how much of it is down to one-off impacts? Today, the New Zealand Budget and US and European PMIs give a suggestion of which economies are taking the biggest hit from Trump’s tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this engaging discussion, Sally Auld, NAB's market economist and strategist, delves into the implications of the RBA’s recent interest rate cut. She shares insights on the divided market expectations surrounding the decision and the potential for further reductions. The conversation also covers the contrasting paths of the RBA and the Fed, with ongoing inflation in the U.S. Moreover, Sally analyzes the significant movements in both Australian and Japanese bond yields, unraveling the complexities of global economic discrepancies and domestic inflation trends.

In this discussion, economist Taylor Nugent from NAB analyzes the transformative UK-EU deal that eases food export checks while safeguarding fishing waters. He dives into market reactions to international relations, particularly the muted response from the Trump-Putin talks amid rising inflation concerns. The podcast also unpacks the impact of recent U.S. legislation on economic sentiment, alongside predictions about the RBA's interest rate cuts amidst a backdrop of mixed economic signals from China.

Monday 19th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a lot of talk going on right now and President Trump is at the centre of most of it. Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about a plethora of negotiations that could influence markets this week. First, the Trump call to Putin, followed by a call to Zelensky. Can he break the deadlock? There are also negotiations going on with the EU. Documents have reportedly changed hands, and JD Vance met with Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Sunday. It might  be in the nick of time, because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that tariff levels will go back to April 2nd levels to those countries that haven’t negotiated with the US in good faith. And in the US, where Republicans have voted against the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, the spending committee is meeting now to plan a way through the standoff. On Friday markets reacted to the cut to Moody’s US credit ratings, although Ray says it’s really of little consequence. And locally, the focus is on the RBA tomorrow, and just how big a cut will they make? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Michael Feller, Chief Strategist at Geopolitical Strategy, shares insights on navigating today's complex investment landscape. He discusses how recent geopolitical tensions, including conflicts from Israel to Ukraine, impact trade and economic stability. Feller examines the implications of evolving tariff policies and a multipolar world, emphasizing Australia's robust economic position amidst global uncertainty. He humorously suggests innovative investment strategies while analyzing the possible future influence of Donald Trump and his family's role in politics.

Ray Attrill, NAB's expert on market dynamics, dives into the drops in bond yields amid weaker retail sales and anticipations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. He discusses the curious independence of equities, bonds, and the dollar, while oil prices fluctuate due to potential U.S.-Iran negotiations. Attrill also examines Australia’s robust labor market and its implications for monetary policy, addressing the possibility of a more cautious approach by the Reserve Bank of Australia amid optimistic expectations.

Equity markets are showing restraint amid a lack of major announcements, with tech stocks being the standout. Recent tariff cuts on China are already boosting container ship bookings. The Beautiful Bill is gaining attention, viewed as a mixed bag that may increase debt without fostering growth. Internationally, potential negotiations between Putin and Zelensky could sway European market sentiment, while contrasting wage dynamics in Australia and the US prompt discussion on monetary policies.

Skye Masters, NAB's market expert and finance aficionado, shares insights on a market invigorated by international deals and tech stock surges. She discusses a $142 billion defense deal with Saudi Arabia and the uplift from potential NVIDIA stock sales in the UAE. With positive economic indicators like a robust consumer confidence report and the S&P seeing its best performance of the year, optimism is in the air. Skye and host Phil dissect how these factors are reshaping investor sentiment and the landscape for US equities.