NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 21st October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBefore you woke up this morning Anthony Albanese was at the White House announcing a  $8.5 billion trade deal with America, giving the US access to the rare earths and critical minerals that will reduce its reliance on China. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the deal which, in theory, will see the US investing in processing capabilities within Australia. Meanwhile Chinese data yesterday showed strong GDP growth, but less progress with domestic consumption. Ken says it’s another sign of the involution that policy makers are fighting against. Could we see more on that out of the Plenum sessions this week? And this should be the day that Japan gets its first female prime minister. But will it last long and what does it mean for the BoJ? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump said he was getting along with China, and he acknowledged his 100% tariff would not be sustainable. That suggests that a deal would be done at APEC, if not before. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says that provided some positive sentiment at the end of last week. Worries over regional US banks also eased on Friday.The likelihood that the US dollar will not fall quite as far as initially expected has caused the NAB FX team to revise their forecasts. Taylor talks Phil through the changes, which will see the Aussie dollar climb mores slowly, and not as far into the seventies (in US cents).This week Japan might finally vote in their Prime Minister and China starts their Fourth Plenum, working on the economic policy for the next five-year plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Latest data from Cotality suggests that the value of Australian real estate could top $12 trillion by the end of the year. The growth isn’t uniform, of course and affordability is still a significant issue. And yet Sydney, the least affordable part of Australia, is continuing to grow faster than the average.Eliza Owen, Cotality’s Australian Head of Research, joins Phil to talk about everyone’s favourite subject. Where is the highest price growth and is affordability slowing the growth. Phil also asks, if capital growth is becoming less pronounced, will investors need to look for areas where they can attract a higher rental yield?Phil and Eliza talk through the latest trends, comparing Australia to other major economies, and make some predictions about what happens next. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s unemployment rate was higher than expected yesterday. On the podcast today we drill down on the numbers and Phil asks Rodrigo Catril whether it changes NAB’s view on when the next rate cut will happen.Normally today we’d be reporting on US CPI, but its been delayed because of the shutdown. Hence, markets are in the dark and cautious, but the Philly Fed manufacturing data adds to concerns about rising prices and weaker employment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities bounced back, despite ongoing uncertainty in US China relations. President Trump has described China’s avoidance of US soybeans as an economic hostile account, but Scott Bessent talked up the likelihood of a truce if China plays its part. NAB’s Sally Auld joins phil to talk through the market response to all this, plus the strong start to corporate earnings season. Although tech and banking might do well, Sally says we wait to see what earnings tell us about the real economy. Today, unemployment data for Australia is out, but it’s unlikely it will do anything to bring forward a cut from the RBA, with NAB still forecasting no moves until May next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been day 14 of the US shutdown, as both sides dig in. And are we being too optimistic about US China relations? NAB’s Gavin Friend says we shouldn’t assume the TACO trade will see the US backing down on such an important issue. He also discusses with Phil comments from Jerome Powell at the National Association of Business Economists in Philadelphia this morning. He was more dovish than expected, helping equities to recover from earlier losses. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe release of hostages and prisoners in Israel and Gaza is the good news story of the year, but markets are still more concerned about the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China. Equities have bounced back, and the Aussie dollar has regained some ground, but both sides are waiting for the other side to make the first move. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the market response, and looks ahead to a day light on data, but strong on central bank speakers and corporate earnings. Can the rebound in US equities hold? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets threw a bit of a hissy fit on Friday over US threats of 100% tariffs on China, and the meeting between Xi and Trump supposedly cancelled. But how much of it is hot air? If you look at the latest gambling odds from Polymarket, there’s only an 11% chance of a 100% tariff on China by November 1st and a 67% chance the two presidents will meet before the end of the month. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are simply seeing another TACO moment, in which case, will the markets settle down today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Gold hit another watershed moment this week, moving beyond $4,000 an ounce. Investors seemingly can’t get enough of it. John Reade, senior market strategist for the World Gold Council, joins Phil to talk about why gold keeps rising in price, and whether $6,000 by this time next year is realistic? Or have we reached ‘peak worry’, and prices could start to retrace a little. John’s view is that gold is being used to hedge against US dollar exposure. Does that mean as long as the uncertainty of US policies and economic outlook remains, gold will continue to do well? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US shutdown continues and the data drought continues, hence, markets are a little more cautious and central bankers seem to be erring on the side of caution (RBNZ being the exception). NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to decipher some of the comments from central bank speakers and looks at a couple of interesting papers from the Boston and Dallas Fed. Plus, with Japan now under new management, how are markets responding to that? Michelle Bullocks testimony to the senate economics committee will be one highlight today, along with Canada’s employment data, which could determine the next move by the BoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.