NAB Morning Call

Monday 12th July 2021For most of last week markets grew increasingly cautious about the spread of the Delta variant and fears of further lockdowns in major economies, Australia included. On Friday, though, that all changed, with bond yields rising, equities breaking new highs, the US dollar back on the rise, but the Aussie also doing well along with other commodity currencies. This morning, NAB’s Ray Attrill looks for reasons behind the shift in sentiment, including better credit numbers from China and a more extensive and sharper than expected cut in the reserve requirement ratio for Chinese banks. So, has the mood shifted? It’s a busy week ahead, including US CPI numbers, which markets have been particularly sensitive too recently. Who’s to say caution doesn’t swiftly return on the back of more virus news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th July 2021Is it below 2 percent or at 2 percent? The ECB has made subtle changes to its inflation target, but has flatly rejected the Fed approach of average inflation targeting. NAB’s David de Garis explains what’s changed in the ECB’s approach. Plus words from Philip Lowe yesterday about the RBA’s reluctance to shift policy until unemployment is (much) lower. Plus, oil up as US supplies fall, and the reflation trade takes a breather as COVID concerns rise. Listen in for the detail. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 8th July 2021The FOMC minutes were released this morning, but a more significant central bank release could be out later in the day. Christine Lagarde is said to be released the outcome of the ECB’s extensive strategy review. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks to Phil Dobbie about what’s likely to be in it and how much of it could be market changing. The Fed minutes meanwhile, had little impact on the markets, which continue to exercise caution as further data suggests a slowdown in the speed of the global economic recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 7th July 2021Bond yields have fallen markedly as markets adopt a more cautious air. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s being driven by a number of factors, including weaker than expected ISM services numbers from the US and factory orders from Germany. The main concern in the ISM was the employment data which dropped below 50, reinforcing the belief that there is a constraint in the availability of labour. A more controlling influence from China, the growth of a more virulent COIVD strain and the uncertainty over an OPEC deal have all added to the caution. So will a strong JOLTs number and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting do anything for turn the sentiment around today? There’s also discussion on yesterday’s RBA meeting, which left the door open to earlier rate rises and tapering of QE, driven by data not dates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 6th July 2021Boris Johnson has told the UK public that they are just two weeks away from removing their masks, getting back to work and forgetting about social distancing. Within reason. Is this why the pound had such a strong day today, on what’s been a quiet session with the US holiday. Today, we know something will change with the RBA. That’s why Philip Lowe has scheduled a press conference this afternoon. But what exactly will be decided? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the possibilities. More importantly, what will cause the market to react? And oil rises sharply as OPEC+ talks fall apart. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 5th July 2021Not too strong not too light, that seems to be the view of the non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday. It wasn’t strong enough to signal change in the Fed’s direction says NAB’s Tapas Strickland. At the current pace, he said, it would take eight months to get back to the pre-pandemic level for payrolls. There’s also discussion about changes expected from the RBA tomorrow. It’s been well signalled that there will be policy changes. Tapas says, given the improvements in the Australian economy, the need to run QE at $100 billion every six months is not there anymore. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd July 2021Markets have been treading water all week waiting for the non-farm payrolls data, particularly in bond yields which hardly moved at all in the last 2 4hours. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there’s been a lot of data for markets to chew over too, some of it below expectations, some of it over. Markets are clearly looking for direction and hoping that payrolls will provide it. In the podcast we also look at yesterday’s manufacturing, trade, dwellings and job vacancy numbers from Australia – all good, although the Aussie dollar was one of the weaker currencies overnight. Why? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 1st July 2021As we’ve mentioned before, central bank speakers are having little influence on the markets since the sharp response to the last FOMC meeting. As David de Garis says on today’s podcast, investors should wait for the evidence, with the non-farm payrolls on Friday the next significant cab off the rank. The ADP numbers overnight were down on April, and could be revised down further, as is often the case. There’s also discussion about weakness in the Aussie dollar, despite the iron ore price, Andy Haldane’s parting words from the Bank of England and uncertainty over China’s growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 30th June 2021Markets have largely moved sideways, pulled between rising confidence numbers in the US and Europe, and concerns about rising cases of the Delta strain. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains, the Conference Board’s labour market differential index, which looks at the ratio between those who see jobs as being plentiful and this finding them hard to get, came in at the highest level since 2000. Also today, discussion on Christine Lagarde’s green plans for Europe, the direction of the Chinese economy and house price concerns. Today, Australian Private Sector Credit will be of interest along with the ADP jobs numbers for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th June 2021A little more cautiousness has crept back into the markets says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, although it might be as much to do with the prelude to the non-farm payrolls numbers at the end of the week as it is to do with rising infection rates as lockdowns. On today’s podcast we look at vaccine numbers and what needs to happen to see economies can on full footing. Plus, Tapas’ taker on yesterday’s Intergenerational Report for Australia. Germany’s CPI numbers will be watched closely today, as do all inflation numbers lately. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.