NAB Morning Call

Thursday 11th November 2021The inflation numbers from the US have been eye popping. That’s the description by the Fed’s Mary Daly as US CPI hits 6.2%, a 30 year high. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out that there are still four million people in the US who lost their jobs through COVID who aren’t back in the workforce, and the Fed will continue to use that reasoning for not lifting rates. But markets are likely to revert to their expectations that the bank will be forced to move sooner than it intends. Australia’s labour market data today, for October, will still be held back by lockdowns and the UK’s GDP read for Q3 will provide a useful barometer on an economy whose return is slower than anticipated, and will have taken a knock with increased fuel costs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th November 2021There’s been a move away from risk assets. It could just be equity markets running out of steam after a particularly strong rally, but a Financial Stability Report from the fed warning of “perilous lunges for risky assets” probably didn’t help. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s hard to join all the dots right now about why the mood has shifted, but inflation continues to be a concern. It was reflected in the NFIB small business report, along with difficulties in obtaining staff. There’s optimism in Australia though, evidenced by the NAB Business Survey yesterday. Today, US CPI will be the focus, along with producer prices from China. Two key numbers for inflation watchers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th November 2021You’d think markets would be bathed in positivity, particularly in the US, with a string of good news, including infrastructure spending, the COVID pill and the reopening of a lot of international travel. There’s evidence of tiredness in the equity market says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in today’s podcast, but we’ve been here before and then it takes off again. Bond yields meanwhile are still adjusting to a world in which central banks are not quite so quick to raise rates, whilst coping with a high inflation outlook. On top of all that, Europe has to contend with higher gas prices, rising again, and the danger of a trade war over Brexit. Locally, the NAB business survey is out early this morning (7.30am). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th November 2021You might expect a little more optimism in the markets given Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls data in the US, Pfizer’s news about a pill for COVID sufferers, the passing of Biden’s $1.2 billion infrastructure bill and rising consumer credit in the US. Equity markets are riding high on future hopes, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says bond markets continue to unwind from expectations on the timing of rate hikes by central banks, in particular the surprise move by the Bank of England last week not to move. Today we also look at Friday’s RBA Statement of Monetary Policy, and look ahead to US CPI and Australian labour market data this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th November 2021There has been a sharp response in bond yields and currency markets to the Bank of England’s decision not to lift interest rates. Furthermore, Andrew Bailey is suggesting he doesn’t know where everyone got the idea that they would. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the response has been very marked. The fall in yields is pushing riskier assets, hence new highs for the S&P and NASDAQ. Yields could claw back a little as markets assess the possibility of a December hike. Meanwhile, the focus is on tonight’s non-farm payrolls in the US, with indications that it could be a strong number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th November 2021There weren’t any surprises in from the FOMC this morning. The Fed will cut asset purchases by $15 billion this month, with a further $15 billion in December, and an expectation that it will continue until the middle of next year. But Jerome Powell was again quick to point out that the tapering does not imply “any direct signal on interest rate policy”. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the meeting, and looks at the latest US data that shows further signs of recovery. Tonight all eyes are on the Bank of England, where we can expect a small move up in interest rates. They’ve practically said as much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd November 2021Central banks are still grappling with what to do about inflation. The RBA is reluctant to talk about interest rate hikes anytime soon, because they don’t think inflation will be a big problem. The Fed and the Bank of England take a different view, but how hawkish will they be. Today on the Morning Call NAB’s Tapas Strickland looks back at yesterday’s RBA meeting and looks ahead to the FOMC tomorrow morning, whilst discussing the various attitudes to the dimensions of inflation. Concerns over supply chain disruptions, of won’t be helped by the rise of COVID lockdowns in China , with the Commerce department there asking local authorities to stock up for winter. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd November 2021For once we are going into an RBA meeting unsure of what the outcome will be. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we have as much chance of predicting a winner in the Cup today as we do forecasting what direction the central bank will take. Meanwhile bond yields in Europe are being driven by the next central bank meeting – will the ECB abandon its PEPP program? Plus, more evidence of the great China slowdown. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st November 2021There were more big moves in Australian bond yields on Friday as the RBA failed to buy up the April 2024 bonds that were the focus of its yield curve control (YCC) policy. So does that mean YCC is dead? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says, yes it is. It has become dysfunctional, given the force we have seen from markets pushing front end yields higher around the globe. It should make for an interesting RBA meeting tomorrow, with more to come from the Bank of England the Fed. All are expected to confirm a policy shift. Meanwhile, evidence of inflationary pressures continue to mount, whilst China’s manufacturing is in contraction. Listen in as Rodrigo explains the rapidly evolving picture, for bonds, economic growth, jobs and inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th October 2021Three year bond yields rose well above the RBA’s target of 0.1 percent yesterday, but the central bank didn’t buy any up as part of its yield control. That pushed yields even higher. So will they react today? NAB’s David de Garis doesn’t think the bank will ditch yield control, but it’ll make next week’s policy meeting that much more interesting. Christine Lagarde said there was a lot of soul searching at yesterday’s ECB meeting, where the discussion was all about "inflation, inflation, inflation". In the end they reaffirmed that inflation was a transitory issue and there was no need for the bank to react. Yet Germany and Spain reported the highest inflation rates in decades. Are they doing the right thing? Meanwhile, equites are existing in a different world, rising still higher on the back of strong earnings results. And Facebook is changing its name. Listen in for more details. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.