NAB Morning Call

Monday 28th March 2022The sell-off of bonds continues, with a further spike in yields at the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s because there is heightened expectations that the Fed will lift rates even faster than previously thought, possibly even four 50 basis point rises this year. Yet the share market – in the US and Europe – continues to rise. We look at why in this morning’s podcast, plus Shanghai in lockdown, how the Yen has lost its safe haven status and the ongoing impact of the war in Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It's a very mixed and confusing day today. “It’s rare that you see equities and bond yields rise at the same time”, says NAB’s David de Garis, but maybe markets have optimism that the Fed’s aggressive stance will put the inflation genie back in its bottle. Or investors are a little unsure where to park money right now. Or, perhaps, investors see anything in the US to be safer than Europe, where inflation will be driven higher through fuel shortages. Meanwhile, PMIs are a little softer but still in growth territory, most notably for services in UK and the USA, a reflection of a braver stance on post-COVID re-openings. The major currency move has been a fall in the Yen, reflecting the widening gap between yields between Japan and the US. In amongst all the confusion, the Aussie dollar is holding its own. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th March 2022Bond yields have come back a fair bit today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s just a recalibration after the massive hikes we’ve seen over recent days. The tone from the FOMC certainly hasn’t changed. Meanwhile oil prices have risen sharply, in part because President Putin has threatened that Europe should pay for gas in Rubles, rather than dollars or Euros. If it’s an attempt to get the West to roll back on sanctions he might be disappointed, with Biden meeting with the EC, NATO and G7 over the next day or two, where the one question on everyone’s mind will be, “what do we do next?” And for an early sign of the impact of the war on Europe, the UK and USA, flash PMIs are out later on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd March 2022Just three weeks into March and US two-year bond yields are up 74 basis points, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, on today’s Morning Call. Will the Fed be happy to see the market responding in this way, particularly as there’s less growth later in the yield curve? Does that suggest there are some concerns about whether Fed can keep inflation in check, without causing a recession. What does history tell us about the chances of that happening? Meanwhile the Yen is a casualty from all this bond action, with their central bank a long way off any sort of tightening. And the rise in oil prices has stalled today, we look at the reason. Today, UK’s CPI is the main set of numbers. Inflation and more of it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 22nd March 2022Bond yields have moved sharply higher as markets expect the Fed to move faster on rate rises and, potentially, drawdowns on the balance sheet. After Jerome Powell spoke overnight, NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s now a much stronger expectation that April’s meeting will see a 50 basis point rate hike and, perhaps, the same again at the next meeting. Could the ECB also be stepping up its plan of action? Christine Lagarde talks later today. Inflation worries won’t be helped by the rise in oil prices, with no obvious short-term solution. An increase in production from Saudi Arabia seems unlikely because they are upset about the US withdrawal of arms sales over the war in Yemen. The Ukraine crisis looks set to continue, and any step up in action by Russia could increase the extent of sanctions including the possibility of an oil ban by the EU. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 21st March 2022Nobody really knows how the war in Ukraine will play out, but we kick off the week with reports from Turkey that an understanding between Ukraine and Russia might be closer. There’s even speculation that the two leaders will meet face to face – obviously at opposite ends of a very long table. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the market optimism right now, with equity markets rising despite the prospect of many rate hikes this year. Supply chain disruption looks set to be with us for longer, with more lockdowns in China over the weekend. But it's the words from Fed speakers that will be the focus of attention at the start of the week – will they support the hawkish stance of the FOMC last week or try to rein back a bit? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th March 2022After a very hawkish Fed yesterday, the Bank of England has presented a much more guarded approach for the rest of the year, whilst delivering the third interest rate in a row. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about why the central bank has a reluctance to signal too much right now. Meanwhile, are markets concerned that the Fed is moving too fast? There’s discussion about Aussie unemployment numbers too and what the strong numbers mean for the RBA. The Bank of Japan is the next central bank, but inflation driven by a tight labour market is much less of a concern for them. Oil prices are rising as hopes of a rapid end to the war dissipate but there are still irons in the fire, including talks between President Xi and President Biden. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 17th March 2022The Fed has met, they’ve lifted rates in the US, and given a hawkish outlook for rate increases this year and next, with a terminal rate of 2.8 percent by the end of next year. The statement and subsequent press conference left some questions unanswered. NAB’s David de Garis points out how they plan to get inflation under control without unemployment rising, even by the end of 2024. Markets reacted swiftly to the announcement, with sharp rises in front end yields. The Bank of England meets later today, and inflation numbers overnight highlight the size of the task ahead for the Bank of Canada. And oil prices are falling as hope remains that a solution can be found to the war in Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Chinese equities have been hit hard again today, despite data showing very strong retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s a mix of increasing COVID cases, causing more lockdowns, and China’s position over the Ukraine war. They want to keep the peace with Russia without attracting sanctions from the west. Is it a sign of the shifting balance of influence that China is negotiating with Saudi Arabia to buy oil in Yuan? Besides the war and COVID, inflation is still a major concern, with the FOMC meeting in less than 24 hours. 25 basis points is more or less locked in, but it’s the rate of future rises and the associated commentary that will attract attention in these uncertain times. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th March 2022China and the US have been meeting, with the hope that talks can resolve the war in Ukraine. But China is showing little sign of offering total support for the west. NAB’s Tapas Strickland wonders whether they’ll need to, with talks between Russia and Ukraine at least offering the opportunity “for an off-ramp” from the conflict. Oil prices have fallen today, mainly because of further lockdowns in China as the country continues to pursue a zero-COVID strategy. That’ll add to supply chain problems, which will further add to inflation pressures. No surprise then that bond yields have risen sharply ahead of the FOMC later this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.