NAB Morning Call

Sally Auld, NAB's markets economist, analyzes the recent surge in Australian investment home loans, indicating that the RBA's policies may not be as restrictive as they anticipated. She discusses how this surge could limit the case for immediate rate cuts. The conversation shifts to the US, where a potential vote to end the government shutdown looms, but potential disruptions in data reporting raise concerns. Auld also touches on ECB rates and global economic indicators, painting a complex picture for markets ahead.

Taylor Nugent, NAB's Markets researcher and economist, dives into the latest trends in Australian consumer and business sentiment. Despite a slight dip in confidence, he highlights resilient business conditions and a surprising rebound in consumer confidence. They discuss the implications of the potential end to the US government shutdown and the implications of rising unemployment in the UK, hinting at possible interest rate adjustments. Taylor's insights shed light on how these factors interplay in the broader economic landscape.

Ray Attrill, Senior FX and markets strategist at NAB Markets Research, dives into the recent optimism surrounding the potential end of the US government shutdown, which has buoyed equity markets. He discusses the RBA's Andrew Bauser's hawkish remarks that raise questions about the central bank's easing cycle. Additionally, Attrill shares insights on Australian consumer sentiment declining and the implications for future rates, alongside updates on inflation expectations in New Zealand and key upcoming survey data that could shift central bank policies.

Rodrigo Catril, NAB Markets researcher, dives into the signs of a global economic slowdown, highlighting the impact of recent data from Michigan and China's falling exports. He discusses the implications of the US government shutdown on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Rodrigo also examines Canada’s employment landscape, contrasting part-time gains with full-time losses. With insights on tariffs and Australia’s upcoming labour data, he provides a comprehensive analysis of shifting economic dynamics.

David Gall, former NAB executive and CEO of the National Reconstruction Fund, dives into Australia's economic diversification strategies. He discusses the critical need to boost manufacturing capabilities post-COVID and the role of the NRF in attracting private investment. Through examples like Harrison AI, he illustrates how patient capital can stimulate innovation while balancing risk. Gall emphasizes the importance of establishing well-paying jobs and regional investments as measurable impacts, all while remaining committed to Australia’s economic resilience.

Friday 7th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNormally all eyes would be on the release of the non-farm payrolls data today, but the shutdown has put paid to that. The Fed’s Goolsbee says the lack of data makes it hard to advocate rate cuts; ‘when its foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down’. The job is made harder when available data conflicts with each other. Yesterday we were talking about the positive ADP jobs numbers, today NAB’s Taylor Nugent highlights the Challenger jobs survey that reported 153kjob layoffs in October, alongside very low hiring rates. Market sentiment has shifted, with US shares down, the dollar lower, and bond yields falling, with an increased expectation for a December rate cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Cutril, a markets analyst, shares his expert insights on economic indicators and global market trends. He discusses Europe's gradual recovery indicated by revised PMIs and the unexpected strength in U.S. services data. The conversation turns to Donald Trump's political challenges and the implications for markets, as equities rise and bond yields react to Treasury comments. Additionally, the duo evaluates the reliability of ADP payrolls, the performance of New Zealand’s labor market, and potential Bank of England rate cuts.

In this fascinating discussion, Ray Attrill, Senior Markets Strategist at NAB, shares insights on the evolving landscape of global central banks. He highlights the RBA's uncertainty about policy restrictiveness and the signals from the Bank of Canada regarding rate cuts. The conversation also explores the tech-driven equities sell-off, with concerns raised by major bank CEOs. Attrill emphasizes the mixed PMI data and its implications, along with views on the UK's fiscal strategies and the RBNZ's outlook for New Zealand's labor market. A must-listen for anyone interested in financial trends!

Join Sally Auld, NAB Markets economist, as she dissects the booming Australian housing market with rising prices and increased dwelling approvals. She explains how RBA policy doesn't target house prices directly but acknowledges that wealth effects influence consumer behavior. The conversation also dives into the latest US manufacturing numbers, highlighting a two-speed economy, tariff impacts on smaller firms, and insights into China’s export struggles. Auld offers a glimpse into NAB's forecasts and the RBA’s cautious approach ahead.

Taylor Nugent, NAB Markets researcher and expert in macro data analysis, dives into the latest trends in housing, inflation, and tech earnings. He highlights Amazon's impressive AWS growth, which is shaping market performance. They discuss regional factors like Australia’s housing credit gains and household spending indicators influencing RBA policy. Taylor also covers OPEC+'s production adjustments, the impact of Euro area inflation on ECB decisions, and the nuances of China’s PMIs amid a struggling property sector.