This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Despite a supposed “pause” in attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Russian airstrikes against Ukraine continue. Meanwhile Trump’s much-touted call with Putin showed no evidence of moving negotiations forward. Is a genuine ceasefire possible or is Putin displaying his ability to manipulate events yet again?Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King’s College London and director of democratic resilience at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, talks to Gavin Esler about the peace negotiations, the Trump/Putin dynamic and what could happen next. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and Liberal Democrat MP, dives into Britain's critical role in European rearmament amid rising geopolitical tensions. He discusses the urgency of increasing defense spending and enhancing military readiness in response to security challenges post-Brexit. Martin emphasizes the need for strong leadership and transparent communication about defense strategies, especially in light of challenges posed by Russia. He also highlights the complex dynamics of NATO and the UK’s expectations as a nuclear power in this evolving landscape.

Is there more to Trump’s designs on Greenland than just whim and chaos? As climate change melts the Arctic ice, global powers are positioning themselves over newly-opened resources, trade routes and strategic opportunities – and Trump’s America no longer abides by international rules or alliances. Will the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic become a new arena for old-fashioned great power rivalry?Klaus Dodds, an expert on the polar regions and professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University of London, explains all to Gavin Esler.• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How can Zelenskyy work with a US President he fundamentally can’t trust? Trump’s decision to pause US aid to Ukraine was the final act in a seismic weekend which sent shockwaves through Europe. Following the dire spectacle of Trump and Vance rounding on Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, is the relationship now purely coercive? Oz Katerji talks to Kyiv-based conflict and human rights journalist and CEO of the Public Interest Journalism Lab Nataliya Gumenyuk, to assess Ukraine’s choices as the world order tilts on a dangerous axis.• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Air Marshal Edward Stringer, a seasoned expert in European security and former Director-General of the Defence Academy, joins Gavin Esler to discuss the shifting tides of defense in Europe. The conversation dives into NATO's evolving role amidst decreasing American support and the pressing threat from Russia. Stringer emphasizes the urgent need for Europe to bolster its own defense strategies and navigate the complexities of geopolitical tension. Will Europe rise to the challenge of independence in security?

Maria Avdeeva, a security expert and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, delves into the dangerous implications of Trump sidelining Ukraine in peace talks with Russia. She discusses the deep frustrations felt by Ukrainians, who fear betrayal and demand a say in their future. The conversation also highlights skepticism towards potential peace agreements and emphasizes Ukraine's unwavering spirit to defend its sovereignty. The geopolitical landscape, including international peacekeeping considerations, adds further complexity to an already tense situation.

Camille Grand, a distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former NATO Assistant Secretary General for defense investment, dives into the shifting dynamics of NATO amidst Trump’s presidency. They discuss the potential fallout if the U.S. were to withdraw from the alliance and the urgency of European nations enhancing their defense capabilities. With tensions from the Ukraine conflict reshaping military spending and strategies, Grand discusses Europe's path towards self-sufficiency and the implications of a less reliant transatlantic partnership.

In this engaging discussion, Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. military in Europe, dives into the complexities of the Ukraine conflict. He evaluates Donald Trump's claim of resolving the war in 24 hours and whether he has the influence to mediate peace between Putin and Zelenskyy. Hodges unpacks the harsh realities on the ground, critiques potential shifts in U.S. military aid under a Trump presidency, and discusses NATO relationships and defense strategies amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Sophia Besch, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, delve into Russia's undersea information warfare. They discuss recent threats to vital undersea infrastructure and the challenges in attributing sabotage to specific actors. The conversation highlights hybrid warfare's impact on European security and the significance of international cooperation to defend NATO countries. They also explore the complexities of communicating these threats to the public without inciting panic.

Gavin Esler welcomes Hagai M. Segal, a professor at NYU London and expert on geopolitical strategy, and Paul Salem, VP for international engagement at the Middle East Institute. They delve into the dramatic unraveling of Iran's regional influence, spotlighting its declining power and the internal strife fueled by public demands for democracy. The conversation highlights the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, future interactions with Gulf states, and the potential for regime change as Tehran grapples with unprecedented challenges.