This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

With the war heading into a sixth month, where will the conflict go next? How are both sides doing when it comes to ammunition? Is NATO really united in its objectives? And how Russia's rhetoric playing out in the Global South?Dr Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at RUSI, joins Arthur Snell for the second of two war bulletins to look at the future direction of the conflict. We're currently running a listener survey to hear what you think. Complete it to be in with a chance of winning a Doomsday Watch t-shirt: https://0jsbaoous3m.typeform.com/to/Nzg2KRQJ?typeform-source=t.coWe're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “The Russians have plenty of unguided ammunition and they can manufacture more of it.”  “Western sanctions will hamper Russia’s ability to manufacture certain weaponry.”  “If I was watching this as China, thinking about Taiwan, I would be saying NATO lacks legs.”  “What we’ve seen in Ukraine is how dangerous it is when the credibility of your deterrence fails.”  “Just running the Ukrainian government is going to cost the EU and US a lot of money over the coming months.”  “We can’t get too excited about Russian diplomacy.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As war continues in Ukraine, where is the conflict at? Has Russia's increased focus on the Donbas allowed them to make some gains? How strong is the Ukrainian resistance? And why has President Zelenskyy fired his top spy chief and head prosecutor? Fresh from a trip to Ukraine, Jack Watling, a senior research fellow in land warfare at RUSI, joins Arthur Snell for our latest war update. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.uk.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  ”On the one hand you have people trying to return to their everyday lives, on the other you hear air raid sirens everyday.”  “The situation in the Donbas is very difficult for the Ukrainians.”  “The Ukrainians are trying to put as much grit in the gears of the Russian war machine as they can.”  “Many senior Ukrainian intelligence officers trained in Russian academies.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Recently we held a live Zoom session with reporting legend John Sweeney, who joined us live from Lviv after a week touring the Ukrainian front. In a crossover with John’s hit podcast Taking On Putin, we spoke to John about where the war is heading, where Putin goes next, the courage of the Ukrainian people and much more.Out now on general release, here is a shortened version of the session. If you'd like to get access to the entire Zoom, as well as future events, early episodes and merchandise, you can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: http://doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As war continues in Ukraine, how did the collapse of neoliberalism get us to the point of conflict in Europe? Are we entering a new era of authoritarianism? Professor Gary Gerstle, author of The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era, joins Arthur Snell for our latest war bulletin.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support us on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Events like Brexit and Trump signified that politics as we knew it was breaking up.”  “Putin holds liberalism in all its forms responsible for all of the ills of the world.”  “Bill Clinton may have done even more than Reagan to create the Neoliberal system.”  “With the collapse of communism, capitalism could expand to a level not seen since before world war 1.”  “The invasion of Iraq was the biggest mistake in American foreign policy history.”  “The rise of authoritarianism signals the end of neoliberalism.”  “The form of authoritarian capitalism seen in Russia and China is not compatible with neoliberalism.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As NATO leaders gathered in Madrid, what were the key moments and decisions from a historic summit? How are alliance members supporting Ukraine militarily? And following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is the "long peace" following World War Two now over?Dr. Ulrike Franke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and European defence expert, joins Arthur Snell for our latest war bulletin.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Thank you for backing us on Patreon, we really appreciate your support.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “This summit was about NATO showing unity and that’s definitely what happened.”  “The one thing everyone wants to avoid is a conflict between NATO and Russia. That leads to a full-scale global war.”  “Germany has to re-learn a logic of military power that we’ve been deeply uncomfortable with for decades.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As the war in Ukraine enters a fifth month, and with the conflict entering a stalemate, what could Russian escalation look like? Would they turn to chemical weapons? And why are bio weapons still part of the debate?Dan Kaszeta, a former US military and secret service officer, chemical weapons expert and author of Toxic: A History of Nerve Agents, From Nazi Germany to Putin's Russia, joins Arthur Snell for another war bulletin.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

While much of the focus is on the ground war in Ukraine, there's another conflict Russia is fighting, dubbed 'hybrid war'. This involves the use of non-military methods such as cyber attacks, espionage and fake news, and is being waged against western democracies including the UK.Helena Ivanov and Neil Barnett have written a report on the subject titled Russia’s Hybrid War Against the UK. They join Arthur Snell to discuss the conflict we can't see.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Thank you for backing us on Patreon, we really appreciate your support.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/Helena and Neil's report can be found here: https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-uk/ “Hybrid warfare involves the use methods such as cyber attacks, espionage and fake news.” - Helena Ivanov “Ukraine is the first time in the post-soviet era that Russia has come up against army with the means and will to resist.” - Neil Barnett “An increasing number of countries are realising the power of media, and are using it to try and influence global politics.” - Helena Ivanov “If Putin can convince those in western countries that sanctions are hurting them, he can create disunity.” - Helena Ivanov “Russian activity never stops, information warfare is always happening.” - Helena Ivanov DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Nearly four months into the Ukraine-Russia war, where is the conflict at? After limited early progress, is Russia now beginning to gain ground, or are both sides grinding to a halt? And in the longer term, can the West sustain both the supply of arms to Ukraine, and it's unity? Defence Editor for the Economist Shashank Joshi joins Arthur Snell for an update on where the war is headed.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “As we speak, Russia is making some substantial tactical successes, but this isn’t everything.” “We are running low of some of the weaponry that we’re giving Ukraine.” “I’ve been trying to answer the question if the Russian army is bad, or if it’s a good army that’s been given bad orders?” “If Russia occupies the Donbas, it won’t sign a document and stop there.” “You don’t require a Trump victory in 2024 to dissolve the Western coalition.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Those in the West would be forgiven for thinking Ukraine is winning the information war, with slick videos of President Zelenskyy appearing all over social media. However for those in the Global South, the content they consume about the war is much more pro-Russia.To explain this phenomenon and the wider context, Carl Miller, Research Director at the Demos Centre for the Analysis of Social Media, joins Arthur Snell for another War Bulletin.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Wrenching heartbreak for Ukraine is completely unbroken on my social media feeds.”  ”Russia and China have tried to meddle in open information spaces to manipulate the world's view of them.”  “You only have to Google ’buy retweets‘ to see how readily available these services are. It's not expensive for states to run these campaigns.”  ”We need widen the array of responses to this tradecraft, beyond platform takedown, digital literacy campaigns and journalistic exposé.”  ”Western governments need to support ways for Russian citizens to access information that already exists. Let them use Wikipedia.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Of all the countries playing a part in the Ukraine crisis, Turkey is perhaps the most difficult to read. A NATO member and supplying drones to Ukraine, but at the same time thwarting Sweden and Finland’s attempts to join the alliance, and hosting Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov later this week.To discuss what Turkey and its president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are trying to achieve, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, dials in from Istanbul to speak to Arthur Snell.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “There is a feeling within Turkey that the country is on the verge of something great.”  “I live on the Bosporus, a few months ago I saw Russian ships coming down into the Black Sea.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices