IBF On Demand

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting​ ​ I interview John Davis, VP of Finance at Tempur Sealy, to discuss how and why Demand Planning and Finance should use S&OP to work together. Virtual FP&A Conference June 16-18 do you want to speak at this leading event? Express your interest here and we'll get back to you: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/CMJ9VC6​ Eric's new Book, Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting which is available for purchase at http://bit.ly/predictive-analytics-book04:33 How demand planning and Finance worked together at Tempur Sealy06:50 What Finance wants to get from S&OP08:55 One number attitude at Tempur Sealy13:37 How S&OP helps with product launches by telling a story with data15:35 How the VP of Finance at Tempur Sealy built the Finance organization to collaborate cross-functionally 18:26 What FP&A does for the business22:15 Do we need a yearly budget?26:00 What demand planners, supply planners and data scientists need to know about FP&ASupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here:Eric interviews his most illustrious guest yet - himself. Eric dives into Eric's new Book, Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting which is available for purchase at http://bit.ly/predictive-analytics-book04:13 Interview Eric Wilson, author of Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting 04:42 What is Demand Planning 2.0?06:00 What has caused predictive analytics to become a top right priority in 2021?07:54 How does Covid-19 relate to Predictive Analytics? 10:45 Who is Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting for?19:30 Predictive Analytics models 27:40 Differences between Business Intelligence, Business Forecasting, and Machine Learning29:10 Is Predictive Analytics replacing time series forecasting?Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Interview with Dr. Larry Lapide, MIT Research Affiliate, former demand planner, and columnist in the Journal of Business Forecasting.04.30 Forecasting downturns in your business 06.30 Communicating downturns to executives08:50 Techniques to deliver bad news to business partners11:00 Know your facts, figures and assumptions15:00 Handling the human side when lower forecasts will result in layoffs 17:20 Provide estimate of forecastability/risk profile 18:50 Stay out of politics20:40 Advice for people new to demand planningSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

01:25 IBF's S&OP Maturity Model02:15 Transformation projects requires an initial assessment 03:15 The value of benchmarking before improving S&OP06:55 The value of S&OP during Covid-1909:24 IBF's maturity model is independent and unbiased and doesn't push you towards a software solution14:25 How to use the Maturity Model 20:18 The outputs and recommendationsSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning:  https://bit.ly/forecast-accuracy-webinar Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now for free: https://bit.ly/33BiLSEIn this special holiday episode I speak to Rex and Ashni, 2 experts in the field who happen to be 6 years old. They might just be able to forecast better than you!We can learn a lot from children because they don't bring bias into their thinking, and we all know that bias can kill your forecast accuracy. Kids are also wrong with confidence - a key trait of a successful Demand Planner. They also don't sweat the small stuff,  don't worry about ambiguity, and always ask "why" - all keys advantages in demand planning. 09:40 Getting rid of bias in our forecasting10:44 Why a child's curiosity is highly valuable11:58 Being wrong with confidence 14:29 Ask a lot of questions and ask "why?"15:00 Think anything is possible16:45 Fail fast 21:35 Always be learning Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning: https://bit.ly/3hCcw62Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now for free: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE02:00 What skills are companies prioritizing for the next 5 years?05:00 Introducing Jessica Lackey, Demand Planning Director and Life Coach06:25 Core competencies of a demand planner07:20 Can soft skills be taught?08:00 Getting data to show demand planners that lack of soft skills increases forecast error.11:00 Developing teams based on core competencies12:10 Book club for learning and shared language14:45 Myers Briggs/strength finding 16:34 Top 3 skills in 5 years time18:15 Stop being a victim and take ownership of how to live your life21:10 How forecasts can get more influence in the organization24:25 Top 3 core competencies in demand planning from IBF researchSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning: https://bit.ly/3hCcw62Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now: https://bit.ly/33BiLSE02:22 Contribute an article to the Journal of Business forecasting. Email the editor at andrews@ibf.org for more information.03:47: How do you forecast after Covid-19 when forecast data is no longer relevant?05:10 What is an outlier? 08:30 How companies are approaching Covid data/outliers.08:50 Smoothing historical data .12:04 Pruning historical data.13:35 Replacing historical data for the Covid period.16:17 Understand and improve methods and process.22:59 Be careful with your assumptions.24:20 Manual overrides with qualitative judgement/emerging information.27:48 Predictive analytics to look more types of data.Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your One-Plan S&OP software. Find out about Arkieva's approach to demand planning:Benchmark your company's S&OP maturity with IBF's free-to-use S&OP maturity model. Get recommendations to improve specific areas of your process and progress to the next stage in your S&OP evolution. Try it now: https://bit.ly/33BiLSEI talk to demand planning expert and long-time contributor to IBF's publications, Daniel Fitzpatrick. He shares how he channels his inner Bob Ross to get a handle on the art aspect of demand planning, and combining it with the science to approach demand planning as a 'craft'. Every week he gets out of the office and into stores to understand the the non-quantitative assumptions to place the numbers in context and to feed back to the sales team. Remember that as one thing becomes commoditized (the science/analytics), something else becomes a premium, and that is the art side of our profession.02:10 Art and science in demand planning04:25 Introducing Daniel Fitzpatrick06:16 Why demand planners should get out of the office and into store locations10:00 Making assumptions about competing products and how that impacts forecasts11:00 Is your product even on the shelf?14:00 Demand Planners and stores often work to different timescales 15:21 Taking ownership of your products16:52 Incorporating observations at stores into your forecasting 19:00 Challenging salespeople on their assumptions21:34 Art and science when it comes to Covid-1928:25 Why the art element is crucial as we move into the predictive analytics ageSHOW LESSSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand sponsored by Arkieva. Learn about Swiftcast, Machine Learning Enabled Demand Forecasting from Arkieva: http://bit.ly/swifcastIBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas -  all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMTWhat is predictive analytics and how does it work? I bring in Eric Siegel to help answer that question because two Eric's are better than one! He is author of the bestseller, 'Predictive Analytics, The Power To Predict Who Will Click, Buy Lie Or Die', former Columbia University professor, founder of Predictive Analytics World, and rapper (seriously!). Demand planning will become the home of predictive analytics, so let's get ready for it now.05:00 What is predictive analytics?06:00 The overlap between forecasting and predictive analytics.07:13 Why are predictive and analytics revolutionizing business? 09:20 Is predictive analytics as complicated as it sounds?11:30 How machine learning works.13:25 Logistic regression.15:33 Big Data and training data.15:58 Finding the right predictive model.20:20 Ensemble models and the wisdom of averages.23:10 Uplift modeling/persuasion modeling to create the future.27:15 How to gain knowledge in predictive analytics.33:00 My new book on predictive analytics (coming soon!).34:35 Arkieva's Swiftcast.Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand sponsored by Arkieva. Learn about Swiftcast, Machine Learning Enabled Demand Forecasting from Arkieva: http://bit.ly/swifcast IBF's industry-leading S&OP Assessments assess your company's maturity level and provide tailor-made recommendations to improve specific areas -  all designed to take you to the next level in your S&OP evolution. Click here for more information: https://bit.ly/3d58dMTYou and I know the value of demand planning and predictive analytics but does anybody else? Getting the resources you need to build an effective demand planning function is difficult and it won't happen unless you go after it. And that means making sure everybody knows the value it brings to senior leaders and other departments. Here's how to get the engagement, support and trust you need for your demand planning and analytics function to succeed.03.25: how to get engagement for demand planning06:35 Learn others languages, especially that of executives so they understand what you're saying.09:55 Educating others about demand planning so they see the value.12:00 Building your demand planning brand.14:05 Find a sponsor, champion and mentor to break down barriers and be your spokesperson. 16:25: Be a salesman because they won't come to you.24:55 You don't always get what what you want and that's OK.Check out Arkieva at www.arkieva.comCheck out IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.comSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org