IBF On Demand

Get Eric's book, 'Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting' here: https://bit.ly/predictive-analytics-bookCome to IBF's Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting Conference from April 26-28. Details & registration: https://bit.ly/3qfU2hFSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

00:00 Introduction01:57 M6 Forecasting Competition - forecasting Walmart sales03:25 Forecasting wizard, Gee Thompson05:20 Gee's approach to the Walmart forecasting competition 08:00 Why Gee goes against the machine learning trend09:35 Proving there's a place for traditional statistical models and human intelligence 12:43 Manual multipliers for seasonality 14:30 Explaining the Innovation State Space Model - is it a kind of Holt Winters method? 22:05 Probabilistic forecasting is here to stay25:30 How to integrate ML into statistical forecastingSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

01:58 Recapping what S&OP/IBP is and don't worry about the acronym they're calling it05:00 Get IBF to help you implement S&OP/IBP07:44 What we're getting out of a good S&OP/IBP process10:00 Percentage improvement to your bottom line you can expect 12:00 Where the bottom line improvements come from13:08 The other, non-tangible benefits of S&OP/IBP14:50 Annualized ROI for a $500 m company 17:43 Improvements in operating costs16:15 Top top line growth16:30 Inventory improvements 16:48 Forecast accuracy19:30 How long it takes to see the benefits25:00 Caution - these results are based on mature/Vanguard organizations 26:46 Use IBF's S&OP maturity model for free 29:35 IBF training and conferences ibf.org/eventsSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting01:48 IBF events are back! Starting with S&OP/IBP Boot Camp03:44 Showing the value of S&OP/IBP and ROI from implementation08:30  4 major costs: acquisition, implementation, operating, improvement09:40 Cost 1: Acquisition costs15:17 Cost 2: Implementation costs (including training) 18:40 IBF consulting and assessments 22:22 Cost 3: Operating costs26:01 Cost 4: Improvement costs27:50 Total costs 30:28 Is it worth it? Measuring the upsideRegister for IBF's S&OP/IBP Boot Camp in Scottsdale from February 16-18: https://bit.ly/IBFSCOTTSDALEIBF's S&OP/IBP consulting and assessments: https://bit.ly/IBF-CONSULTINGSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

01:44 S&OP needs a strategy02:45 Dr. Bram Desmet, author of 'Supply Chain Strategy and Financial Metrics'05:30 The supply chain triangle: service, cost and cash08:00 Strategic S&OP11:27 Pick your strategy: Product Leadership, Customer Intimacy or Operational Excellence 17:07 Workout a strategy for S&OP you will lose20:33 How does COVID impact S&OP strategy?24:40 Best KPIs for the cost, service and cash triangle27:00 How Business Efficiency Planning (BEP) helps connect planning to strategy 31:37 Scottsdale S&OP/IBP Boot Camp, February 16-18Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecastingSee IBF's list of 2022 of training events and conferences: https://bit.ly/IBFEVENTS01:30 Beware inflation - how it will impact your business05:44 Finance's role in IBP - financializing the plan07:43 IBP is a mechanism for implementing strategy 09:00 What happens when Finance doesn't trust the forecast/demand plan12:38 How do you get Finance to use your plans?18:18 Making IBP more strategic for the longer term26:50 Differences between the forecast and the budget27:42 Incorporate changes as they occur, understand drivers of demand 28:42 Using IBP for long term visibility into P&LSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting01:38 CEO's don't get demand planning 03:52 #1 Forecast error is not the goal08:15 #2: Forecasts are not the same as targets11:47 #3: Don't manipulate the forecast to justify decisions16:09 #4: Stop making our job harder!23:10 #5: Success depends on specializationSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecastingLearn more about forecastability here: https://bit.ly/2YNAfvn01:15 Why do we assume forecast accuracy should be the same for all items?05:05 What is forecastability?06:55 Are all items forecastable? 08:20 Items are becoming increasingly unforecastable09:35 What kind of forecast error should we accept today?12:49 How to know if our items are forecastable or not18:05 Coefficient of variation and seasonality 19:45 Should we expect more error now following Covid?22:25 What to do with long tail, unforecastable SKUs27:10 Identifying causal factors in the noise29:54 How good are you at forecasting? Using Forecast Value AddSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecastingInterview with Jake Barr, CEO of BlueWorld Supply Chain Consulting. 04:49 What is going wrong with supply chains right now, and how long will it last?09:30 How forecasting and planning can help mitigate the impact of supply chain chaos.11:44 2022, the year of 'anti-lean'15:53 Overreacting to supply shortages and overbuilding inventory18:13 The true extent of the supply shortages including medicines 21:20 Balancing cost, margin and cash amid supply disruption26:27 Buying inventory - calculating what you're willing to pay and what you're willing to loseSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecastingUse IBF's S&OP Maturity Model: https://ibf.org/sop-maturity-modelJoin us for IBF Orlando Conference: https://ibf.org/events/orlando202102:00  IBP, S&OP, BEP - what's the difference?03:55 Executive support04:20 Time horizon04:45 Higher levels of aggregation05:45 Cadence 06:20 Review steps07:00 Unconstrained view of demand 11:30 One number attitude17:15 Collaboration, communication and transparencySupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org