Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

They revisit a familiar tech selloff and ask if fear, not fundamentals, is driving sharp price moves. They unpack Claude-triggered software declines and why valuations compressed despite rising forward profits. They trace record AI capital spending and its macro implications. They highlight a quiet global rotation with Japan and emerging markets outperforming as market breadth improves.

Brian Belski, CEO and CIO of Humulus with a 36-year Wall Street career, shares market stories and firm-building wisdom. He talks big-picture macro views, the case for a long bull market and when markets shift from multiples to earnings. Conversations also cover gold and metals, opportunities in financials and mid/small caps, and the realities of running an investment firm.

After a quiet data week and a loud political signal, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what a potential Fed leadership shakeup could mean for rates, markets, and investor expectations. With Kevin Warsh emerging as the likely next Fed chair, the discussion cuts past headlines to examine his long history at the Fed, his shifting stance on inflation and rate cuts, and why markets may be less willing to take his guidance at face value. It’s been one of the most volatile stretches for metals in decades, as gold and silver experience sharp pullbacks after a historic run. Ryan and Sonu break down why positioning and sentiment mattered more than headlines, and along the way, they connect the dots between capital-intensive tech investment, the emerging commodity supercycle, and why earnings strength continues to underpin equities despite leadership rotation and policy noise.Key Takeaways:Fed leadership uncertainty adds friction, not clarity: Kevin Warsh’s record reveals a pattern of convenient pivots that may limit his influence over a skeptical committee Rate cuts face structural resistance: Markets are pricing fewer long-term cuts as capital investment and nominal growth keep upward pressure on rates Metals volatility was about positioning, not fundamentals: Extreme bullish sentiment set the stage for sharp pullbacks despite intact long-term trends Gold and silver require sizing, not timing: Volatility, correlations, and rebalancing matter more than chasing short-term price moves Earnings continue to justify the bull market: Strong margins, industrial strength, and resilient consumer spending support risk assets even as leadership rotatesJump to:0:00 - Setting The Stage: No Jobs Data1:06 - Who Is Kevin Warsh4:30 - Warsh’s Crisis-Era Record9:10 - Politics, Hawks, And Rate-Cut Reality14:20 - Balance Sheet Beliefs Challenged19:45 - Gold And Silver’s Wild Swing25:40 - How To Own Metals Wisely31:10 - From Software To Capex Supercycle36:50 - Productivity, Labor, And Rates41:30 - Fun Signals: Super Bowl And January46:05 - Earnings, Margins, And MomentumConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

They dissect gold and silver’s breakout and why metals are reemerging as portfolio protection. They trace a growing ‘debasement trade’ tied to deficits, commodity strength, and Fed pressure. They debate the implications of the Fed chair race and sticky inflation beneath the surface. They flag how a possible government shutdown and policy noise could ripple across healthcare, financials, and market positioning.

After a long stretch of calm markets and steadily improving breadth, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, confront a sudden return of volatility driven by geopolitics, tariffs, and rising bond yields. They walk through why renewed trade threats tied to Greenland are unsettling markets, how bond yields are once again asserting their influence over policy and risk assets, and why metals are responding more decisively than equities.Along the way, they assess the durability of the bull market by digging into household balance sheets, leverage, labor dynamics, and the expanding leadership beyond mega-cap tech. The discussion ultimately circles back to a familiar theme: markets may react sharply to headlines, but fundamentals, earnings power, and financial resilience continue to shape the bigger picture.Key Takeaways:Tariffs and geopolitics are back in focus: Trade threats tied to Greenland and Europe are reviving volatility, even as markets wait for legal and policy clarityBond yields are driving the response: Rising global yields are limiting diversification benefits and increasing pressure on policy credibilityMetals are acting as a release valve: Strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects policy uncertainty and global demandHousehold balance sheets remain resilient: Lower leverage and elevated net worth are helping sustain spending and growthMarket leadership continues to broaden: Small caps, mid caps, and cyclicals are reinforcing the underlying strength of the bull marketJump to:0:00 — Cold Open And Safety Scare3:00 — Setting The Stage: Worst Market Day5:30 — Greenland Tariffs And Policy Chess11:30 — Supreme Court Tariff Wildcard15:30 — Yields Spike And Safe Havens Pop20:00 — Tech Under Pressure, Small Caps Hold25:30 — Market Breadth And AI Expectations31:00 — K-Shaped Economy And Delta’s Split Cabin36:00 — Household Balance Sheets And Leverage44:00 — Asset Drivers: Housing And Stocks50:00 — Bear-Market Risk And Feedback LoopsConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

After a strong start to the year and renewed highs across global markets, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step into the growing tension between Washington and the Federal Reserve, and what it could mean for markets, confidence, and policy credibility. They react to Jamie Dimon’s latest comments on economic resilience, unpack the unusual legal pressure facing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and explain why markets appear far more focused on earnings and growth than political noise.Key Takeaways:Markets are prioritizing fundamentals: Earnings growth, productivity gains, and consumer resilience are outweighing the political headlinesFed independence is being tested: The legal and political pressure on the Fed raises long-term questions, but the markets remain focused on outcomes, not noiseMetals are sending a signal: The strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects both global demand and policy uncertaintyLabor markets are cooling, not breaking: Hiring is slower, but the layoffs remain low and prime-age employment stays historically strongBreadth continues to improve: The leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap tech, reinforcing the durability of the current bull marketJump to:0:00 — Economic Resilience, Consumers, And Bank Signals6:00 — Powell, Politics, And Central Bank Independence12:15 — Gold, Metals, And Washington Crosscurrents19:00 — Credit Cards, Housing Policy, And Affordability Risks28:20 — Market Breadth, Diversification, And January Signals31:10 — Labor Market Cooling, Youth Hiring, And Revisions41:00 — Productivity, Margins, And Revenue Per WorkerConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

After a volatile first half and another year of strong headline returns, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to assess what actually shaped markets in 2025 and what that foundation means heading into 2026.They revisit why early-year turbulence caught so many investors off guard, how companies navigated tariffs and margin pressure more effectively than expected, and why earnings growth remained the quiet backbone of the rally. The conversation then turns forward, covering their 2026 outlook for stocks and bonds, the role of AI-driven capital spending, global market leadership, and why sentiment continues to lag reality even as breadth improves. Along the way, they discuss inflation stickiness, labor market crosscurrents, policy tailwinds, and where diversification still matters most as the cycle matures.Key Takeaways: • Earnings did the heavy lifting: Profit growth and margin resilience, not valuation expansion, powered market gains • Volatility followed the script: Early-year drawdowns fit historical patterns despite widespread surprise • Global leadership expanded: International markets and cyclicals outpaced expectations as breadth improved • AI spending surged: Capital expenditures accelerated across major tech platforms, reinforcing long-term growth trends • 2026 outlook remains constructive: Above-average equity returns and modest bond gains hinge on steady growth without recessionJump to:0:00 — Setting The Stage For 20251:48 — Tariffs, Liberation Day, And Market Bottom4:30 — Sentiment, Concentration Myths, And Breadth9:45 — Speculation Falls, AI Leaders Repriced14:45 — Small Caps, Transports, And Rate Cuts22:30 — IPO Drought, Private Markets, And Valuations27:20 — Media Moments, Gold, And Diversifiers32:20 — Fed Cuts, Dots, And Labor Revisions40:10 — 2026 Playbook: Mid Caps, Financials, Healthcare46:30 — Global Vs. U.S., EM Tilt, And PolicyConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Scott Brown, founder of Brown Technical Insights, and Chris Kimble, veteran chartist and former CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions, take a deep dive into charts. They discuss market breadth and leadership shifts, financials versus tech, decade-long bases in metals and commodities, gold’s role, sentiment disconnects, and why boring sectors might be setting up for big moves.

2025 kept investors off balance, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group turned to Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, to make sense of what actually drove the year. They dig into the gap between perception and reality on market breadth, why speculative pockets unraveled even as leadership widened, and how steady rate cuts, shifting Fed signals, and a softer labor backdrop shaped sentiment. Art also brings decades of perspective on small caps, mid caps, financials, healthcare, and the global forces that may matter most as investors position for 2026.Art Hogan, nor B. Riley Wealth Management, are affiliated with CWM, LLC.Key Takeaways:• Market leadership broadened: More sectors and stocks contributed to gains than investors realized• Speculative areas reset: High-risk themes sold off sharply despite broader market strength• Fed signals stayed mixed: Cuts continued while disagreements inside the committee grew• Labor data softened: Slower hiring and revisions added pressure beneath the surface• Cyclicals built momentum: Financials, healthcare, industrials, and global markets carried meaningful strengthJump to:0:00 — Setting the Stage for 20255:20 — Breadth, Sentiment, and Concentration Fears9:30 — Speculative Shakeout and AI Valuations13:45 — Pullbacks, Psychology, and Market Stats17:15 — The Everything Rally in Context20:40 — Small Caps, Transports, and Quality Leadership34:30 — Fed Cuts, Labor Signals, and the 2026 OutlookConnect with Art• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthogan/• X: https://x.com/ArthurHoganIIIConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026.Key Takeaways:• The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut• Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026• Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts• Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers• Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forwardJump to:0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 202641:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And WagesConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com