The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

In episode 177, we welcome back our guest, Alex Rubalcava. Alex and Meb start the conversation by discussing startup company fundraising, and how it has gotten more difficult to attract top-tier VC firms.The two then get into Alex’s firm, the track to seeing over 1500 startups this year, the process of evaluating them, and doing meaningful work on about 75 per year.Alex shares his thoughts about the current IPO market, and some reasons he thinks it’s not in a bubble right now. Meb then asks about the SaaS business model, and how the world has changed. Alex weighs in with some comments and some ways he thinks about looking at these types of companies.Next, Alex gives a brief review of QSBS rules, and the potential tax benefits available to investors.The conversation shifts into the current deal environment, and competing for allocations for deals. Alex provides an example of seeing an opportunity and fighting for an allocation. He also describes how his initial optimism about an investment correlates with the results in ensuing years.Meb then asks Alex about AI and the opportunity there. Alex describes his firm’s bullishness on AI, and why he thinks AI isn’t going to take over as many jobs as we think it will right now. Alex then gets into AI deployment doing one of four things; segmentation, optimization, anomaly detection, and recognizing objects. Commercial AI systems are being built to automate a process or make a prediction about the future.As the conversation winds down, Alex describes portfolio investments deploying AI to bring new approaches and ideas to their respective industries.All this and more in episode 177, including what the future looks like for Alex. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.Enough from me, let’s let Wes take over this special episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In episode 176, we welcome our guest, Adam Tkaczuk. Adam and Meb kick off the episode with an overview of opportunity zones.Meb then asks about the best way to source investments in OZs. Adam provides some background, resources, and some wisdom that it is important to look closely at fees and be careful about diligence into OZ investments. He notes that there are all types of projects available, not just real estate, and that location can have a huge impact.Meb asks Adam about location based sources of capital. Adam describes examples of what that is and some examples of how business can use this practice to find money to fund business projects.Adam then gets into the role he plays with small business owners in helping them navigate tax credits, find project funding, and maximize after-tax income. He talks about tax and investment strategies, and business sale tactics such as considering OZs and a structured sale. Next, Adam talks about some case studies on helping clients find tax credits.As the conversation winds down, Meb asks Adam to get into the general flow of how he works with clients.All this and more in Episode 176, included some great resources and Adam’s most memorable investment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episode 175 is a Meb Short. In this episode, you’ll hear Meb discuss a key development to be aware of in global markets, the valuation spread between the most and least expensive markets around the world. Meb explains why it is important to study history before assuming the U.S. deserves a valuation premium to the rest of the world, what global equity valuations look like, and the reality of investor home-bias. All this and more in episode 175. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In episode 174, we welcome our guest, Amlan Roy. Amlan and Meb start the conversation off with a discussion on demographics, why we need to understand them, and the idea that monetary policy is relatively ineffective in the demographic environment the world faces today.Amlan then lays out some prescriptions for some of the issues he’s seeing today, including, the idea of doing away with traditional retirement ages, more fairness toward women, and updated immigration policies.Meb and Amlan then get into negative yielding interest rates, the impacts they have on investors, and how we should be thinking about economic and finance theory. He also hits on falling productivity growth, and a trying to solve that issue in China, India, and the rest of the world by bringing more young people and women into the workforce.Amlan then shifts to some additional thoughts on growth, and his idea of the “Demographic Dividend.”Don’t miss all of this and more in episode 174, including some of Amlan’s most memorable and important market calls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.Enough from me, let’s let Bob take over this special episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In episode 173, we welcome our guest, Tom Williams. Tom and Meb get right into Tom’s background, moving to the Bay Area alone, and finding a job at the age of 15. He then spends some time on building BetterCompany, a mobile app designed to bring anonymity to sharing about work, and later, pivoting to enterprise.Meb then asks about the beginning of Tom’s angel investing career. Tom walks through the progression of angel investing with a partner to launching his own fund, and how important it is to build a network.Next, the pair dive into AngelList, syndicates, and how easy it has become to invest in startups. Tom dives further into venture, with an example of a fallacy that it is a zero-sum game. He describes technology driven disruption resulting in a democratization process where more and more companies taking their share of the market as a result.Meb then asks Tom to explain his thought process on investing. Tom emphasizes his focus on macro. He then discusses a theme he’s been investing in, America losing its supremacy and how to fix that. He shares that he finds ethically run technology companies that are trying to “ladder up” the “trapped class” in America are looking very interesting.Tom then spends some time talking about some portfolio investments. He walks through Grove Collaborative, already America’s largest independent brand for home and personal care, and the clear vision that the co-founder and CEO explained to him. Tom describes the vision being so obvious, he just had to go with it. He follows up with LogDNA, and Jumbotail.As the conversation winds down, Tom reveals his plans for the future, including the idea of backing new angel investors.All this and much more in episode 173, including Tom’s philanthropic work and his most memorable investment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In episode 172, we welcome our guest, professor Cam Harvey. Meb and professor Harvey begin the conversation with professor Harvey’s 1986 dissertation on the yield curve, and his finding that when the yield curve inverts, it precedes a recession. His indicator has yet to provide a false signal. He goes on to explain the model, what it really tells us, and the implications as we move late into the summer of 2019.Professor Harvey then gets into what an inverted yield curve means for growth, and a study he did that describes the performance of various asset classes before and after yield curve inversions.He follows up with some background on the Duke CFO survey, and the predictive power it has in foreshadowing recession. As of a recent observation, 85% of respondents believe a recession will begin in 2020 or 2021.The conversation shifts, and professor Harvey gets into some thoughts on cryptocurrency, and the research that went into the creation of his course on Blockchain.Next, professor Harvey explains blunders in factor investing, from data mining, to investors not taking correlation of factors into consideration.As the conversation winds down, professor Harvey discusses what he’s thinking about in his research these days, and disruptions he sees coming in finance.All this and more in episode 172, including professor Harvey’s most memorable investment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it.This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format.You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world.Enough from me, let’s let Corey take over this special episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In episode 171, we welcome back our guest from episode 46, Raoul Pal. Raoul and Meb start with a chat about one of Raoul’s tweets, “Buy Bonds. Buy Dollars. Wear Diamonds.” Raoul explains that he sees global growth slowing after the longest recovery in history, as well as a number of countries in or nearing recession. That presents an opportunity in US Treasuries and Eurodollars.The pair continue the conversation and get into how Raoul looks at the world. Raoul walks through his current view including his take on business cycle and yield curve indicators.Meb then asks Raoul to explain “The Doom Loop.” Raoul lays out the idea that corporate debt has increased at an alarming rate since 2009 relative to household and government debt. He discusses what he’s seeing now, and the risk this poses to the global economy and asset prices.As the conversation winds down, Raoul gets into some thoughts on gold and crypto.All this and more in episode 171, including the greatest macro trade Raoul has ever seen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices