The Numbers

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.Apologies for the poor audio from Éric during the first half of this episode.As suggested in the podcast, if you’d like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link.Livestreams on SATURDAY and MONDAY can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheWrit/streamsA video of this episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Pablo Rodriguez, a seasoned politician transitioning from federal to provincial politics, shares insights on his recent move. The conversation dives into the Liberal Party's struggles following recent byelections, with concerns about declining voter support. They discuss the rise of the Bloc and the NDP, highlighting an uncertain future for the Liberals. Rodriguez also analyzes new polling trends in British Columbia and reflects on the rapidly changing political landscape as Canada gears up for upcoming elections.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests Éric against a machine in the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Excitement brews as listeners explore upcoming byelections in Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun with a fun draft twist! Current polling reveals the Conservatives leading while the NDP struggles. Speculation on Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader heats up. Delve into Saskatchewan's political rivalry and anticipate electoral dynamics in New Brunswick. What makes an ideal Canadian VP candidate? A mix of humor and insightful analysis promises to keep listeners engaged throughout this lively discussion!

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)We also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests Éric with a Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast discusses the recognition levels of Canadian political figures, recent federal numbers, and provincial polling in BC and Ontario. They analyze voter perception and the importance of name recognition in shaping public opinion. Speculations on upcoming by-elections, historical polling data, and a quiz on past federal election leaders are also featured.

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer your questions, including:Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!Support the podcast on Patreon and get bonus episodes every two weeks, extended mailbag segments every week, ask us questions for the mailbag and join our Discord! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast covers the surprising Conservative win in the Toronto St. Paul's by-election, implications for Justin Trudeau, and Naheed Nenshi's victory in the Alberta NDP leadership race. It also discusses premier approval ratings and political strategies, along with reflections on future episodes.