The Numbers

A series of polls published last week put the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. This week, the numbers are putting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives back in front by a sizeable margin. Has the Liberal surge already ended?This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest federal polling numbers. We also do a round of over/unders on Sunday’s Liberal leadership race where Mark Carney is heavily favoured to win, plus we discuss some new polling out of Quebec. Then, Philippe has a Quiz on past Liberal leadership contests.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Doug Ford gambled when he called an early election, but it paid off in spades last night as his Progressive Conservatives won their third consecutive majority government. It wasn’t necessarily the bigger mandate he wanted, but a win’s a win. And that was a win.The surprise of the night, though, was the performance of Marit Stiles’s NDP. The party’s vote went down significantly, as the polls predicted. But the NDP still managed to squeeze a lot of seats out of a lot less of the vote, as incumbency ruled the day in what was an otherwise status quo election. We try to make some sense out of how the NDP managed to defy expectations. And what do we make of the performance of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals — good enough to regain recognized party status, but not good enough to get their leader elected?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s been a whirlwind few weeks in the polls as the Liberals have closed the gap on the Conservatives. At first, the Liberals were merely on track for a smaller defeat than before. But now the polls are pointing to the possibility that the prime minister after the next election might not be Pierre Poilievre. It could be Mark Carney.This week on The Numbers, we delve into the wild federal polls that have been published over the last few days. We also discuss the Liberal leadership race, the resignations of two Atlantic premiers and give our final assessment of the Ontario election campaign. Doug Ford’s PCs are heading to a majority victory, but what is going to happen to Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and Marit Stiles’s NDP?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The discussion dives into the precarious state of the NDP, whose poll numbers have plummeted to alarming lows. With the Liberals gaining ground, the potential shift in leadership poses a significant threat. Insights on Ontario's election reveal possible losses for the NDP as competition intensifies. The hosts also explore unique political ads timed with a big hockey game and share trivia that reflects on Canada’s electoral history. Plus, there's anticipation for upcoming elections in Manitoba, British Columbia, and Yukon!

The Liberals have made significant gains in a number of recent polls, closing the gap with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, in some case, to single-digits. And when Mark Carney is substituted-in for Justin Trudeau, that gap disappears entirely. Have we entered an entirely new federal race?On this week’s episode of The Numbers we also discuss some of the latest polling numbers out of the dynamic and exciting (sarcasm) Ontario election campaign, as well as a byelection call in Quebec and some new polls out of Alberta and British Columbia.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube.https://youtu.be/sakffqWeHhY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The trend is getting irrefutable — the Liberals have reversed their slide since Justin Trudeau’s resignation. But just how competitive is the race really getting, and how much of it is based on the idea of Mark Carney rather than the reality?On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss some of the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean. We also discuss the fourth quarter fundraising figures for 2024 and new developments in the Liberal leadership contest. Then, we break down where things stand in the ongoing Ontario election campaign and take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. https://youtu.be/9vqTM_CtYZo Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast dives into the unclear trends of polling data affecting the Liberal Party, especially after Trudeau's resignation. There's speculation about a possible uptick in support and how it ties into Ontario's election. The hosts highlight the shifting dynamics in the Liberal leadership race, scrutinizing contenders like Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland. They also address polling challenges, especially with low voter turnout, and analyze the implications of fresh polls in Quebec for the sovereignty movement and party strategies.

Citing the need for a new, stronger mandate to take on Donald Trump’s tariffs, Doug Ford looks poised to call an Ontario election more than a year ahead of schedule. It’s a campaign that would play out while Justin Trudeau is still prime minister and Pierre Poilievre isn’t. Is this a smart political gambit for Ford’s PCs, or could it blow up in the premier’s face?This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest numbers out of Ontario — as well as some diverging trendlines at the federal level. One poll shows the Liberals surging. Is it an outlier or something new? Plus, we take a look at the federal Liberal leadership race and discuss whether or not this contest is Mark Carney’s to lose.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. (https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod)You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the winnowing field of Liberal leadership contestants. We also discuss some new polling numbers that suggest the Conservatives have grown their support since Justin Trudeau announced he was resigning as prime minister.Plus, is Doug Ford preparing to send Ontarians to the polls?You can also watch this episode on YouTube.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the impact of Justin Trudeau’s resignation as prime minister and Liberal leader, as well as the early moves in the contest to replace him. What do the polls say about the chances his successor will have against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives?And who will that successor be? We hold an auction to choose our picks for the most likely winners of the Liberal leadership race.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.