The China in Africa Podcast

The collapse of the post-war international system now underway will have a disproportionate impact on African countries that rely heavily on multilateral bodies like the UN. Beyond a pull-back of aid and humanitarian assistance, African countries must also contend with an increasingly hostile United States. Dozens of African countries have been targeted by the Trump administration for visa restrictions, trade sanctions, and regularly denigrated by the president himself. At the same time, U.S. diplomats across the continent were ordered by the State Department in January to remind African governments to express more gratitude to the U.S. for its "generosity." Judd Devermont, the former top Africa strategist at the White House during the Biden administration and now an operating partner at Kupanda Capital in Washington, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the future of U.S.-Africa relations and China's expanding presence on the continent. 📌 Topics covered in this episode: China's sharp drop in Africa lending and what it signals Why big Chinese infrastructure projects are fading U.S. Africa relations after USAID and PEPFAR cuts The leaked State Department email and Africa as a "peripheral" priority America's collapsing credibility in Africa and beyond Why China is seen as an opportunity, not an ally Critical minerals and the limits of extractive diplomacy What the shifting U.S.-China-Africa balance means next Show Notes: Post Strategy: On China by Judd Devermont The Guardian: Head of US Africa bureau urges staff to highlight US 'generosity' despite aid cuts by Aisha Down China Power Project: US-China-Africa Relations: A View from Africa by Lina Benabdallah Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week will likely be remembered as one of the most significant orations of the early 21st century. Carney channeled the fear and frustration of many global leaders when he defiantly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over. The "rupture" that Carney referenced in his address has profound consequences for China as it moves to reshape a part of this new international order to better align with its interests. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior research scholar at Columbia University, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why this is such a pivotal time for China as it moves to become a peer power of the United States, at least economically, without triggering the so-called "Thuycides Trap" that dictates this kind of rivalry often leads to war. Show Notes: Foreign Affairs: China's Long Economic War — How Beijing Builds Leverage for Indefinite Competition by Zongyuan Zoe Liu 📌 Topics covered in this episode: Mark Carney's Davos speech and the declaration of a global rupture The collapse of the rules-based international order What a post-American world looks like for middle powers Economic coercion and the weaponization of supply chains Where China fits in the new global order China's long economic war and leverage strategy The Global South's trust gap with China Why the debt trap narrative persists despite evidence China as an opportunity rather than ally in emerging markets The rapid erosion of U.S. global credibility Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's recent Africa tour marks a strategic diplomatic move as he visits Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Lesotho. The hosts discuss the significance of this low-key trip amidst ongoing global tensions. They analyze China’s support for Tanzania’s leadership, Ethiopia's focus on infrastructure, and Lesotho's market access strategies. The conversation also touches on the implications of BRICS naval drills off South Africa and China’s zero-tariff proposals amid limited African export gains. Additionally, public sentiment toward China versus the U.S. is explored.

In this engaging discussion, Ovigwe Eguegu, a policy analyst specializing in China–Africa relations, dives into China’s foreign minister Wang Yi’s recent tour to Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and Lesotho. They unpack the geopolitical implications of Somalia’s significance amid U.S. tensions, Ethiopia's pivotal role in China's debt diplomacy, and Tanzania’s strategic ports. The conversation also highlights Lesotho's economic challenges and how China's support symbolizes deeper regional ties, revealing the complexities of China’s evolving partnership with Africa.

The hosts reflect on a monumental year, discussing the launch of the Simandou mine and its impact on iron ore geopolitics. They delve into environmental and social challenges, highlighting the Kafue River spill's narrative battle. China's strategic shift towards South American soybeans raises eyebrows in US–China trade relations. Tensions within the G20 regarding South Africa signal shifting global dynamics. As they look ahead, the spotlight is on Southeast Asia's rising significance and Zimbabwe's efforts in lithium production.

Joshua Eisenman, a politics professor at Notre Dame, and Caroline Costello, assistant director at the Atlantic Council, shed light on the rampant illegal resource extraction in West Africa, primarily driven by Chinese demand. They explore the complexities of local corruption and weak enforcement, yet present hope through innovative policy recommendations from a recent collaborative report. The discussion highlights the potential for African governments to improve accountability and the need for grassroots reporting to curb these illegal activities.

Carlos Oya, a political economy expert at SOAS, dives into Africa's industrialization challenges and opportunities. He highlights the dual role of China as both an obstacle and a partner. Reliable infrastructure is essential for manufacturing growth, and Oya delves into Ethiopia's successful strategy. He also discusses the shift from policy banks to private investment in African projects, debunks myths about Chinese labor, and emphasizes the need for strong local education to support this industrial transformation.

Christian Géraud, an Africa editor and analyst specializing in extractive industries, shares insightful analysis on the newly inked U.S.-DRC mining deal. He explains how this agreement could significantly restrict Chinese mining firms' expansions in the DRC, potentially setting a precedent for similar moves across Africa. Géraud also discusses security guarantees for the DRC and the implications of this neocolonial dynamic, while highlighting the evolving landscape of cobalt in electric vehicles and the strategic interests of the U.S. and other nations in the region.

Anika Patel, a China analyst at Carbon Brief, shares insights from COP30 where China's role looms large amidst a U.S. absence. She discusses how China portrayed itself as a norm-setter in South Africa, yet shied away from being labeled a 'climate leader' in Brazil. Key issues include climate finance dynamics, tensions around trade measures, and the dilemma faced by developing nations weighing affordable Chinese green tech against local industrial goals. Patel highlights China's strategic positioning and influence in shaping the future of global climate politics.

Innocent Batsani-Ncube, an associate professor of African politics and author of "China and African Parliaments," explores China's extensive construction of government buildings in Africa. He discusses how these projects serve as tools for subtle power, influencing African elites while being framed as generous gifts. The conversation dives into the political implications of foreign-funded parliaments, sovereignty concerns, and the unique dynamics of China's approach compared to other countries. Case studies from Lesotho, Malawi, and Zimbabwe illustrate the complexities behind these architectural investments.