Excess Returns

Investing in today's world requires an ability to understand multiple disciplines. In addition to understanding markets and having the ability to put current events in a long-term context, it also requires an understanding of economics. And with governments playing an increasing role in markets, it requires an ability to understand public policy and interpret its impact. Nir Kaissar is unique in his ability to offer insights into each of these areas. He is the founder of Unison Advisors and a regular columnist for Bloomberg.  In this interview, we discuss each of these areas, and the unprecedented times all of us are currently living through.  We discuss: - The COVID-19 crisis and the government response to it and what they mean for investors - Why the struggles of value investing in the past decade aren't enough to tell you it is dead - Whether bonds still make sense for investors with yields near all time lows - The role of market valuation in analyzing future returns - Whether passive investing is distorting the market  We hope you enjoy the discussion  NIR'S BLOOMBERG ARTICLES https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ASlX9_7a5l8/nir-kaissar FOLLOW NIR ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/nirkaissar ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

It has been said that the most dangerous words in investing are "this time is different". But sometimes a confluence of factors come together to significantly change the character of the market. In the best research paper we have read this year, Corey Hoffstein argues this is one of those times. In this interview, we go through all the details of Corey's argument and how they fit together to form a very compelling argument that this time might in fact be different.  We discuss:  - Why the "moneyness" of markets has greatly increased the interdependence between the stock market and the economy - Why the rise of divergent investment strategies has increased market volatility  - The role of the Federal Reserve policy in driving investors up the risk curve  - How passive investing has impacted the market overall and the relative pricing of stocks within it - The role of options dealers and how options buying and selling can exacerbate volatility COREY'S BLOG  https://blog.thinknewfound.com/ FOLLOW COREY ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/choffstein ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau  

Active management deserves all the criticism it gets. After all, over 80% of equity managers underperform their benchmarks over the long-term and active managers charge vastly higher fees compared to passive indices. But active management also gets a bad rap. There are many active strategies that perform very well over time, and justify the fees they charge. How can both of these conflicting statements simultaneously be true? The answer lies of the definition of the term “active management” and the fact that many strategies that investors consider passive also have significant active components.  In this episode we talk about the various types of active management and the pros and cons of each.  We discuss: - Why the S&P 500 is an active portfolio - The various approaches to fundamental indexing  - The one type of active management that should be avoided at all costs - The pros and cons of factor investing - Whether the days of the star fund manager are over ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

John Rekenthaler is Vice President of Research for Morningstar, the author of the Rekenthaler Report column, and a leading expert on the mutual fund industry. John has been with Morningstar almost since the beginning and has witnessed the evolution of the mutual fund and investing industries first hand. In this interview, we draw on John's extensive experience to cover a variety of topics related to the fund industry and investing in general. We discuss:  - the key attributes to look at when analyzing funds  - the pros and cons of passive investing - whether star fund managers are a thing of the past - judging fund managers by the company they keep  - the dangers of using macro data to time the market  - his biggest lessons from Morningstar founder Joe Mansueto  We hope you enjoy the discussion.  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this bonus episode, we we discuss a presentation Justin recently gave to Fidelity customers about some of the major narratives shaping the current market. The word "unprecedented"  tends to be overused in investing, but 2020 has certainly seen many occurrences that many investors have never seen before, and may not again.  We talk about some of these things and what they mean for investors going forward.   We discuss:  - Why 2020 has turned the factors that have worked over the long-term in investing upside down  - How the current dominance of large-cap stocks fits in a historical context  - The historic pace of both the decline and recovery we saw this year   - Whether you can read anything into the large amount of cash Warren Buffett is holding  - The implications of the massive government stimulus   - The future outlook for the newly minted retail traders who came into the market in the wake of the Coronavirus crisis.   ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We are currently in one of the most difficult economic environments many of us will see if our lifetimes. Even though the unemployment rate has fallen from its high of 15% to a level below 10%, it still exceeds the peak from the 2008 crisis, which itself was one of the deepest recessions ever. Small businesses and entire industries, like air travel, cruise lines and hotels are struggling mightily as the various degrees of lockdowns we have experienced in recent months have taken a huge toll. But despite all of that, the stock market currently sits at all time highs.  In this episode, we look at the reasons for this disconnect.  We discuss:  - Why it is not uncommon for the stock market to become disconnected from the economy - Why the businesses we see struggling in our everyday lives aren't the most important ones to the market - The implications of unprecedented levels of government stimulus - Why psychology can often explain short-term market moves better than fundamentals ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Technology has allowed all of us to personalize many aspects of our lives. Rather than accept products tailored to a wide range of people, we are now able to customize products we use based on our specific needs and preferences.  But in the world of investing, most investors continue to invest in prepackaged indexes like the S&P 500 that are the same for everyone. That may be about to change, though.  The combination of new technology, the elimination of brokerage commissions, and the ability of investors to purchase partial shares of individual securities have come together to create a product that allows investors to build indexes that meet their individual preferences.  That product is direct indexing. In this episode we talk about the pros and cons of direct indexing and the details of how it works.  We discuss: - the potential tax benefits of owning the individual stocks within an index instead of an index fund - the double edged sword of personalization - the behind the scenes details that are important to understand when looking at direct indexing strategies  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Trading volumes at online brokers have skyrocketed since the Coronavirus crisis began. If there is one lesson these newly minted traders have learned so far, it is that the market does nothing but go up. But more seasoned investors know that the market, and these traders, will eventually fall upon tough times. In this episode, we discuss some investing lessons that these new traders could learn from legendary investor Peter Lynch.  We discuss:  - The importance of understanding the businesses behind stocks you invest in - How to distinguish luck from skill - Why investors should avoid "Cutting Their Flowers and Watering Their Weeds" - Why making mistakes early in your investing career can be a good thing  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we are joined by Professor Partha Mohanram. Professor Mohanram is the John H. Watson Chair in Value Investing at the Rotman School at the University of Toronto. His paper "Separating Winners from Losers among Low Book-to-Market Stocks using Financial Statement Analysis" is also the basis for one of the quantitative models we run on Validea. In this interview, we cover a wide range of topics based on Professor Mohanram's research, including:  - The criteria of his G Score strategy - Whether accounting standards should change to account for intangible assets - The balance between quality and value in portfolio construction  - Separating winners from losers in Financial stocks - Whether investors can profit from information on Twitter  FOLLOW PROFESSOR MOHANRAM ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/pmohanram PROFFESSOR MOHANRAM'S RESEARCH https://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/FacultyAndResearch/Faculty/FacultyBios/Mohanram ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau  

Value investors have fallen on difficult times in the most recent decade. Value's extended underperformance has led many to question whether the strategy still works or if it is broken in some fundamental way. In this episode, we look at these arguments and discuss why we still believe in value.  We discuss: - Whether value is cheap on a relative and absolute basis - If the risk- and behavioral-based arguments for value still hold - Why history gives us some reason for optimism - Why underperfomance would not be what we would expect if value is truly dead  ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK  Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN  Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau