Macro Minutes

In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific and global inflationary pressures. Join us when we explore why commodity exporters like Australia are feeling the pinch, how central banks will respond to stagflation, and why US equities have remained resilient , though caution is warranted as more significant market headwinds may be emerging.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsRobert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates StrategistIzaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent developments and exploring two primary scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. The first scenario envisions rapid de-escalation that would allow oil prices to retreat toward $80 per barrel, providing relief to EM economies and supporting risk assets. The second scenario contemplates further escalation, potentially including boots-on-the-ground military intervention, which would keep oil prices elevated for an extended period. This sustained pressure would create headwinds for EM growth, inflation dynamics, and external balances. We assess the implications of each path for emerging market currencies.Participants:Luis Estrada(Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quantify some impacts on inflation and growth estimates, and map a path forward for the ECB and BoE.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistGeorge Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circularity, driving credit spreads wider. The New Circularity was initiated by new AI apps hitting software equity valuations and credit spreads, which in turn is feeding into concerns over vehicles exposed to that widening, namely the Broadly Syndicated loan market, the Private Credit market, BDCs and even Insurance Companies. Valuation declines have in turn driven redemption requests which has placed more pressure on credit spreadsParticipants:Jason Mandel (Desk Strategy), Head of Leveraged Finance Desk StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySteven Denny (Desk Strategy), Head of US IG Credit Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US Tariff framework is changing. China is preparing for its National People’s Congress. Latin America is entering a period of political volatility. We give our take on the current EM environment.Participants:Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Over the past 6-12 months Treasury yields are rangebound, gold surged, but the USD has weakened. Despite the de-dollarization narrative, investors have continued to accumulate USD denominated assets, but with a cautious bias (i.e. hedging). To unpack these complexities you will hear insights from Blake Gwinn (Head of US Rates Strategy), Richard Cochinos (FX Strategy), and Chris Louney (Natural Gas and Gold Strategist).Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistMegum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In the first episode of our new monthly ‘European Edition’ we talk about political instability in the UK and its impact on markets. Despite the uncertainties, we still see value in the short end of the UK Gilt curve, also versus the EUR market. We also outline that we see the ECB on hold for the rest of the year despite inflation being below the 2% target and why we think the EUR yield curve steepening is far from over.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistMegum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There seems to be a confluence of factors that have conspired to be the perfect storm for gold. Prices gains have been parabolic, the recent correction severe, but dip buyers arrived in force to support the market. Is there still a golden opportunity in the shiny metal?Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyChristopher Louney (Research), Gold & Natural Gas Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We are introducing our new EM Pulse publication, highlighting our views across Asia, EMEA, and LatAm in 2026. This episode features discussions from our positive view on CNY and China’s outlook to why we think the South African rand’s positive momentum can continue and the role of FX carry in the outperformance of LatAm FX this year.Participants:Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again and have lately filtered into markets more clearly. Global bond yields started rising again, the yield curve steepened from both ends and the USD is on the back foot again. Meanwhile, the JGB market is under pressure and JPY worries are mounting.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts