Eurodollar University

This podcast explores the potential un-inversion of the yield curve and the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rate policies. It debunks misconceptions surrounding interest rates and yield curves, analyzes swap spreads as signals beyond the Federal Reserve's views, discusses recent changes in the yield curve, and explores various scenarios and signals related to the bond market and the economy.

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #europe #fed #federalreserve #ecb Hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller has gotten cold feet on the economy and the financial system, taking a huge leveraged position right at the spot on the curve we've been highlighting for months. The primary reason why is being made perfectly clear as globally synchronized data spotlight a global economy falling apart. Perhaps rapidly. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: Druckenmiller Says He Has ‘Massive’ Bullish Bets on 2-Year Noteshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/druckenmiller-says-he-has-massive-bullish-bets-on-2-year-notesISM Manufacturing PMI October 2023https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/october/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #china #yuan #purge There appears to be an honest-to-goodness (not good) purge underway across China's top leadership. This political instability appears to be driven by disagreement over the direction of the Chinese economy, currency and property sector and what to do - if anything - about it. Despite recent Western headlines blaring "China has turned a corner" the data, and the intrigue, shows conclusively it hasn't. The fallout will be felt worldwide - more than it already has. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN: China removes Defense Minister Li Shangfu after two-month disappearancehttps://www.cnn.com/2023/10/24/china/china-names-new-defense-minister-intl-hnk/index.htmlReuters: China's Xi makes first known visit to central bank -sourceshttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-makes-first-known-visit-central-bank-sources-2023-10-24/Bloomberg: Country Garden’s Missed Bond Payment Triggers CDS Payouthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-26/country-garden-s-missed-bond-payment-triggers-cds-payoutSCMP: China’s economy ‘turned a corner’: 7 takeaways from third-quarter GDP, September datahttps://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3238369/chinas-economy-turned-corner-7-takeaways-third-quarter-gdp-september-dataTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Brent Johnson, an expert in the finance industry, discusses the emotional aspect of de-dollarization and the need to reevaluate views based on reality rather than personal emotions. The podcast also explores the misconceptions about China's impact on the United States, the misleading narrative of mainstream economics, and the complexity of changing the monetary system. It provides potential solutions for replacing the dominant dollar.

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #jobs #europe #germany #yieldcurve Is the bond selloff finally over? How would we tell? One way is to look at European specifically German rates and rate behavior. Over the last half decade, bunds et al have led US Treasuries including the similar cases in 2018 not to mention last year. Not only are cash market yields trending that way, forward European money rates are more strongly inverted this month, too. The reason why is equally clear, coming straight from statements by top ECB officials. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB: Press Conference 10/26/2023https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2023/html/ecb.is231026~c23b4eb5f0.en.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Consumer price numbers have come back during the summer. Since US GDP was up big in Q3, quite a few seem concerned this could mark the beginning of a second "inflationary" phase. But underneath the oil surge there is overwhelming evidence disinflation remains firmly entrenched. A little too firmly, according to the markets.Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve #income #jobs The 2-year US Treasury continues to press a fundamental case for the US economy that looks nothing like the last GDP number. Despite an official narrative for a strong labor market, the evidence instead shows serious and growing weakness where it counts the most - incomes. That major deficiency has been masked by the remnants of the supply shock. Now the leftover economy from that era is on a collision course with incomes. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Minutes September 19-20, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20230920.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

US GDP surged in Q3 despite low market reaction, highlighting temporary optimism overshadowing a banking crisis. Analysis of the market's response and implications for US Treasuries and crude oil prices. Detailed analysis of third quarter GDP data, highlighting contributions of goods and services, and concerns over global economy. Discussion on labor market warning signs and concerns for the economy, including increase in initial jobless claims.

Explore the significance of financial collateral in the euro dollar system and its impact on the monetary system and financial markets. Learn about the complex nature of securities lending and the circulation of collateral. Understand the role of treasury securities in collateral swaps and derivative transactions. Discover the importance and risks of securities lending practices, including the influence on the failure of Lehman Brothers and AIG. Lastly, delve into the significance of collateral in the reserve currency system and its impact on hedge funds and insurance companies.

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve All of a sudden, two of the biggest bond bears on the planet have turned bearish on the economy and now bullish on bonds. The timing is suspect at least in terms of the "September effect" which is coming off. That leads Treasuries and global bonds back to fundamentals which are looking worse by the datapoint - and we got a bunch of those today. They simply reinforce why bond bears are now economy bears being bullish on bonds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAckman tweetshttps://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1716453006344921298Gross tweetshttps://twitter.com/real_bill_gross/status/1716472972113051665S&P Global Flash US Composite PMIhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/800861276eb949fc9646061f8eb2ffb4HCOB Flash Eurozone PMIhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8dc7347e38ad43e88d81531f437243aaHCOB Flash Germany PMIhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bdd9a44d333a46a9bd5c66cd7fd32090au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMIhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4b3aea7d614f4e47aa7a4b108bead4b9Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7