Eurodollar University

The Fed keeps having to screw around with what should be its primary job. The Fed is now trying to go back to the past with its Discount Window, hoping to fix it so the program might work this time. Officials are in a bind being forced to unwind the BTFP after unintentionally granting too generous terms. What are they missing? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For those in the Soft Landing USA camp, there was everything in today's Q4 2023 GDP report. Growth rate, consumers, an even more solid dose of disinflation. Near perfect Goldilocks. So why wasn't it taken that way in the market? Some answers from Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Lagarde Says It’s Likely ECB Will Cut Rates in Summerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-lagarde-says-agressive-rate-cut-bets-don-t-help-ecbECB Monetary Policy Statementhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2024/html/ecb.is240125~db0f145c32.en.htmlBloomberg  Lagarde’s Talk of Summer ECB Cut Sees Traders Bet on Aprilhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/ecb-s-lagarde-stands-by-comments-on-likely-summer-rate-cuthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The podcast discusses the recent emergency measures announced by the Chinese government, the reluctance of Chinese banks to lend, concerns about real estate funding, and the plan to rescue shares through offshore funds. It also analyzes the state of the Chinese Yuan, explores the actions of Chinese banks in the currency market, and assesses the risks and consequences of China's economic unwind.

Beside the S&P 500, Japan's Nikkei 225 has been basking in the global spotlight. Surging to its highest in decades and not all that far anymore from its own all-time mark, it might seem Japanese equity investors are expressing loads of confidence from the Asian perspective. Just like US indices, however, there are a number of reasons to look at the Nikkei with caution - starting with China and then going from there. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

First part of Mike Green conversation, including the retirement bombshell from IBM:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jfIDNqVnZoThe rest of it is available for EDU members and DDA subscribers. If you aren't one, you can become one here:https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptionsThe S&P 500 hit another record high. That's proof the US is on track to achieve its Goldilocks scenario, soft landing and disinflation combined. Or is it? What do stock indexes really tell us? Sifting through the averages they instead picture a different set of conditions (assist from Mike Green). The vast majority of US shares look far more Chinese than Magnificent 7.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You often hear someone in the media say the bond market is currently pricing for five or six Fed rate cuts. That's not actually what's being priced. This is not a subtle difference or a few degrees of interpretation. This is night and day with stocks potentially getting caught in between. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EDU's report on Collateral Shortageshttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralWhat was last year's banking crisis really about? Deposit flight was only the first part of it. In a bombshell report prepared by a working group of the G30, it admits the biggest challenge for banks and central banks alike was...collateral. What the group recommends authorities do about it is...insane. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisG30 BANK FAILURES AND CONTAGION LENDER OF LAST RESORT, LIQUIDITY, AND RISK MANAGEMENThttps://group30.org/images/uploads/publications/G30_Lessons-23-Crisis_RPT_Final.pdfBPI Comment on the New G30 Reporthttps://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Comment-on-the-new-G30-report.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More data from the Chinese economy and real estate market which further confirms the dire situation China is facing. Xi Jinping is facing that situation by tightening his grip even further, waging a stepped-up war against corruption even though Xi declared corruption had been defeated five years ago. This isn't about corruption; the more the Chinese gov't does, including purges, the worst it is getting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSCMP ‘No one is safe’: China purges record number of senior officials in 2023, with more ‘tigers’ likely to fallhttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3247040/no-one-safe-china-purges-record-number-senior-officials-2023-more-tigers-likely-fallBloomberg China’s Defense Purge Strikes at Heart of Xi’s Military Reformshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-04/china-s-defense-purge-strikes-at-heart-of-xi-s-military-reformsAsia Times Water in Chinese missiles’ tanks is a fake storyhttps://asiatimes.com/2024/01/water-in-chinese-missiles-tanks-is-a-fake-story/VOA Dreary Economic Data Suggests Struggles Ahead for Chinahttps://www.voanews.com/a/dreary-economic-data-suggests-struggles-ahead-for-china/7444827.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #china #xijinping #taiwan

Ho ho wut? Data looks awful one day but fine the next. Yesterday's Empire Fed plunged, yet today the gov't reports retail sales numbers that look fine. Was Christmas a bust, or was it strong like everyone now says? Reconciling these numbers - including production - isn't really difficult starting with "strong" context. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

The Empire Fed's manufacturing PMI absolutely plummeted in January 2024. While it may be just one region for one month, these numbers are some of the worst on record and convincingly add to the growing list of evidence that the US economy is heading into the non-linear part of the recession process. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Germany Narrowly Escapes Recession But Outlook Remains Toughhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/germany-s-economy-shrank-last-year-for-first-time-since-pandemicNYT Recession: Some Criteria Missing, So Far (1974)https://www.nytimes.com/1974/08/28/archives/recession-some-criteria-missing-so-far-there-will-be-no-recession.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU