Eurodollar University

On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisRemarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at Press Conference Ahead of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meetingshttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2363Reuters Yellen wants G7 'wall of opposition' to China's excess industrial capacityhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/yellen-says-g7-discuss-responses-chinas-excess-industrial-capacity-2024-05-23/Treasury Secretary Yellen on PBShttps://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/treasury-secretary-yellen-on-why-biden-is-targeting-chinese-manufacturing-with-new-tariffshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTarget Corp First Quarter Earningshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-corporation-reports-first-quarter-earningsTarget Corp Press Release Lowering Priceshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-will-help-consumers-save-big-by-lowering-prices-on-5,000-frequently-shopped-itemsCNBC Target shares tumble 10% as consumers buy fewer groceries and home goodshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/target-tgt-q1-2024-earnings.htmlBLS New Tenant Rent Indexhttps://www.bls.gov/pir/new-tenant-rent.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s).Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBoston Fed How do We Measure Standard of Livinghttps://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/ledger/winter2004/livstand.pdfCDC Drug Overdose Deathshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db491.htmCDC Birth Statshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htmCDC Birth Rateshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/Brth.pdfChristopher Waller Little by Little, Progress Seems to be Resuming.https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240521a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Apple becomes just latest corporation to report results in line with recent macro statistics. That list now includes Home Depot and even today's Red Lobster bankruptcy. People are struggling and businesses are noticing and feeling the impact. But how far has it gone? Some other metrics are not encouraging. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisApple Second Quarter Earningshttps://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/05/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/CNBC Apple announces largest-ever $110 billion share buyback as iPhone sales drop 10%https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/apple-aapl-earnings-report-q2-2024.htmCNBC Red Lobster files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protectionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/red-lobster-bankruptcy.htmlCNBC Home Depot misses on revenue, as high interest rates hurt saleshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/home-depot-hd-q1-2024-earnings-.htmlCNBC Are consumers pulling back on spending? It depends on which CEO you askhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/consumer-pullback-ceos.htmlBloomberg What Is Buy Now, Pay Later? How It Works and the Hidden Risks You Should Knowhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/what-is-buy-now-pay-later-how-bnpl-plans-workBloomberg Treat Buy Now, Pay Later Loans Like Real Debthttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-14/treat-klarna-affirm-buy-now-pay-later-loans-like-real-debtBloomberg Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Trackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/-buy-now-pay-later-has-americans-racking-up-phantom-debtFlexhttps://help.getflex.com/hc/en-us/sections/360004885954-Get-Startedhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Business at Walmart is brisk these days...and that's a big problem. The better things go for the company especially at the grocery department the worse you know it is in the economy. And the big retailer just put up robust results because it isn't just struggling Americans coming in to shop, Walmart is now getting tons of business from high-income earners, too, because now they're struggling. Not exactly the soft landing signal we'd hoped.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreNY Post Wealthier customers flock to Walmart to boost retailer’s sales in strong Q1 earningshttps://nypost.com/2024/05/16/business/wealthier-customer-flock-to-walmart-to-boost-retailers-sales-in-strong-q1-earnings/Bloomberg Why We Can't Shake the Vibecession, Even in the Face of Good Newshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-16/high-prices-and-phantom-debt-why-we-can-t-shake-the-vibecessionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Chinese have sold a record amount of US Treasuries. Again. Most mainstream explanations point to political motives including many asserting an intentional act to move away from the dollar. The actual reason is indeed monetary but not at all in that way. The important immediate implications tell us a lot about the conditions for the globally synchronized economy.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversificationhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-16/china-sells-record-sum-of-us-debt-amid-signs-of-diversificationCNN China has teased how it might fix its property crisis. Markets are loving ithttps://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/business/china-property-crisis-unsold-homes-hnk-intl/index.htmlChina NBS Basic situation of the national real estate market from January to April 2024https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202405/t20240517_1955760.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A major global central bank would never hike rates during a prolonged recession, would it? You might be surprised to find out the answer is a solid, yes. Not only did it just happen, the reasons why tell us a whole lot about the real aim of central bank policies, where they come from, and, more important of all, the status of our globally synchronized world. The cycle drama just got taken up a notch. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Japan’s Economy Sputters as Dismal Run Extends to Three Quartershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/japan-s-economy-contracts-as-consumers-companies-cut-spendingReuters Japan's economy skids, clouding BOJ's rate hike planshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-gdp-contracts-complicating-bojs-rate-hike-plans-2024-05-16/Reuters Japan's finmin says 'speculative' moves in currency market impacting yenhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japans-finance-minister-sees-speculative-moves-currency-market-2024-04-01/Investing.com Japan GDP shrinks more than expected in Q1 as consumption slowshttps://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/japan-gdp-shrinks-more-than-expected-in-q1-as-consumption-slows-3443154https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

They called it the most important economic update in living memory, holding the key to everything from inflation to economy and interest rates. When it came out, it wasn't what everyone thought and even more interesting those numbers ended up being overshadowed by another set alarmingly consistent with everything else we've been seeing lately. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS April US CPI press releasehttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdfBloomberg Here Are the Key Takeaways From US CPI Report for Aprilhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-cpi-report-april-2024-key-takeaways-on-inflation-core-measureBloomberg US Retail Sales Stall After Downward Revisions in Prior Monthshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-retail-sales-stall-after-downward-revisions-in-prior-monthsCNN The backbone of America’s economy was just dealt a serious blowhttps://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/economy/us-retail-sales-april/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

When the person who is supposed to help you find a job finds out they no longer have one themselves, that's a warning sign about the economy. Those have been proliferating lately and mostly focused on employment. This fits nicely (in a bad way) into other late cycle signals coming across including a sharp rise in consumer credit delinquencies. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIndeed Message from CEOhttps://www.indeed.com/press/releases/a-message-from-our-ceo-chris-hyams-2FRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.htmlLiberty Street Economics Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowershttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/delinquency-is-increasingly-in-the-cards-for-maxed-out-borrowers/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's total credit in April actually fell for only the third time and by the most ever. Clearly the government is alarmed by that as well as the distinct lack of traction in the real economy (more deflation in producer prices, minimal gains in consumer prices). We'll go over what was just reported, what the government's next government plan is likely to be, and what the market(s) reaction(s) has(have) been. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYT Biden Looks to Thwart Surge of Chinese Importshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/politics/biden-china-imports.htmlWSJ China Hints at New Growth Push as it Warns of Rising Uncertaintieshttps://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-calls-long-delayed-policy-meeting-warning-of-rising-uncertainties-032fb571https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU