Eurodollar University

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/ratesI said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the direction of the HH Survey and unemployment rate. And that includes the rates market which ignored the FOMC's hawkish dots. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJay Powell's Press Conferencehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ZE5tF_IMUCNBC Quotes from Jay Powell Press Conferencehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-june-fed-rate-decision.htmlPolitico Biden’s economy: Good metrics, bad vibes, few levershttps://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/07/biden-has-an-economic-story-to-tell-and-yet-00162338Guardian Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Bidenhttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-bidenBLS Business Employment Dynamics Summaryhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.nr0.htmTable 4'https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t04.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/ratesWalgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and that's the bad side of smaller price changes. Today's May CPI completely backs up everything we've been seeing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWalgreens Walgreens Introduces Summer of Savingshttps://www.walgreensbootsalliance.com/news-media/press-releases/2024/walgreens-introduces-summer-savingsQuartz Amazon, Walmart, and Big Retail’s race to cut priceshttps://qz.com/target-walmart-amazon-walgreens-price-cuts-consumers-1851507920Bloomberg  Big Oil’s Blockbuster $114 Billion Investor Payout Is Most Everhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/big-oil-pays-out-record-114-billion-in-share-buybacks-and-dividendshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Last week's ECB rate cut was...odd. Sure, officials had said for months they were going to do it. Yet, the conditions that would have to be met were not. Policymakers went ahead anyway and this past weekend's developments are a big Big Picture reason why. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Italy’s Tajani Calls for Quick Second ECB Cut After June Movehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/italy-s-tajani-calls-for-quick-second-ecb-cut-after-june-moveThe Times Back me for low interest rates, Rishi Sunak tells votershttps://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rishi-sunak-tories-interest-rates-general-election-962mpcmjxAP UK inflation lowest in 3 years. Prime Minister Sunak makes it a focus in election call for July 4https://apnews.com/article/britain-economy-inflation-interest-rates-090db19af939b9c532da1fb15ab40a0aLeMonde Moody's warns that France's snap election could lower credit ratinghttps://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/06/11/moody-s-warns-that-french-snap-election-could-lower-credit-rating_6674498_7.html#https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/ratesConsumer credit has historically been a solid recession signal, particularly how consumers alter their usage of credit cards. Some of that by choice, for many it is the bank's. Either way, when this happens it is more compelling evidence backing the rise in the unemployment rate.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSeptember 2008 FOMC Transcripthttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080916meeting.pdfMarch 2001 FOMC Transcripthttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20010320meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Roaring Kitty is not the problem, nor is Gamestop the company and its stock. All are symptoms of a degraded model that increasingly rewards all the wrong behaviors. Stocks have become lottery tickets, the pie-in-the-sky way out for way too many Americans otherwise trapped in a real economy that continues to leave them behind - as the latest employment report proves. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreRoaring Kitty Livestream 6/7/2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1prSyyIco0&t=658sThe Hill GameStop shares plunge, halted during Roaring Kitty livestreamhttps://thehill.com/business/4710147-gamestop-shares-trading-roaring-kitty-livestream-meme-stock/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This has never happened before. Sure, the payroll data and CPS series have diverged before but this is something entirely new. The fact that it runs contrary to decades of history makes our determination rather easy and simple: the labor market noose is tightening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Big US Job Gains Is Out of Sync With Recent Weaker Economic Datahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-06-07/us-employment-report-for-mayhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos discuss the ECB's rate cut decision, the inconsistency in inflation data, and the implications on the economy, credit, and global risks, questioning the reliance on outdated economic theories.

More labor market cracks are showing and expanding. Even some of the data which has been resilient may have to be substantially changed given new information that just came to light. Labor weakness continues to clear out the FOMC setting the Treasury market up the next rally - though it isn't quite there yet. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisADP National Employmenthttps://adpemploymentreport.com/ADP Pay Insightshttps://payinsights.adp.com/?_ga=2.165121663.1500609015.1717601960-340309474.1717601960BLS QCEW Overviewhttps://www.bls.gov/cew/overview.htmBLS QCEW https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.nr0.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

As more weak data pours in on the US economy, the more clarity it offers on the future path of ST interest rates. As that clears up, market rates are moving lower. But why? Mainstream theory demands we consider rates as entirely supply or demand factors (like QE). Yet, the past couple years have thoroughly disproven the idea. Rates are going lower because that's where and what the fundamentals are. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Majority of Middle-Class Americans Say They Struggle Financiallyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/two-thirds-of-middle-class-americans-face-hardship-in-poll?srnd=economics-v2https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A rare warning strikes the gasoline market in another confirmation of economic weakness, one primary factor which forced OPEC this past weekend to extend its production restrictions. On top of those, big changes to US income estimates further corroborating the deterioration, as did a surprise drop in one of the more critical sentiment signals.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Weak US gasoline demand compounds pressure on oil ahead of OPEC+ meethttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/weak-us-gasoline-demand-compounds-pressure-oil-ahead-opec-meet-2024-05-31/Nikkei  OPEC+ extends deep oil production cuts into 2025https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/OPEC-extends-deep-oil-production-cuts-into-2025ISM Manufacturing May 2024https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/may/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU